pasnownut

Hoping to add the King to the list in 20 min.

Navgem kills primary and overruning and just pops a perfect coastal. Souther and Easter folks approve

agreed. Likely more qpf back NW due to speed and fetch. If it holds close to this, i'd expect better precip panels to show up.

Snow maps are not too shabby. Entire forum approves of 4-8 w/ 10" lollies. Rather reasonable outcome IMO.

Primary dies a little earlier, and coastal is just a beaut. Only thing its missing is NW quadrant of precip, because at 994 and slow speed, I'd expect more qpf back into CTP/NEPA.

If that happens as modeled, yeah I'd love the long duration mood snows after thermals recover. After all sleet is for pack retention. Buckle up, cause there's something following as well. 500s at 192 notably diff. and less ridgy here...another to watch?? time will tell.

Dont get me wrong, I'm not complaining whatsoever, but merely pointing out things to watch. I'd absolutely take what the GFS is serving....even if I only get 4", but its hard to swallow when true central gets another 8-12"

and secondary pops east. Not worrying yet, but hoping ens guidance is south and west for primary and secondary, or LSV wont approve. Mag to NEPA will

Thats EXACTLY what i worry about.

same here. Just need to be 20 miles w of fall line and I'm all in....every time...

says the guy who lives 50 miles west of the typical fall line....lol

500's showing a little less ridging at 72. Too early to see if it helps.

verbatim.....we taint. Early panels showed a more norther solution in midwest. Keep both eyes on that. Primary needs to die a timely death or just not be too strong so that we get overrunning and not cooked thermals while waiting for coastal to pop 12z held onto primary longer, but looks to recover and coastal starts to take over and save the day

I think it fair to say that there is enough consensus that we have a storm coming. Current goalposts are as follows left post - primary hangs on too long-wrecks thermals, delayed transfer to coast, sloppy transfer to coast-think miller b jip zone right post - coastal tucks inland and SE Pa sees mixing issues, coastal pops too late and its congrats NJ, coastal too far ots and pulls best snows too far east Current feeling is that we are sitting pretty here in central and eastern Pa. (if one blends EPS and GFS). While enough big hits are showing up, I'd still think a 4-8" deal is rather likely, and there is enough wiggle room remaining to keep that in play, unless we start seeing something trend away from what most models are showing. its not like we are pulling for 1 model, as they all have something decent to offer.

Been on my mind as well. A bad handoff would wreck dreams of many snow weenies. Thats why B's make me nervous. GFS and CMC had some sloppy handoffs showing, so hoping todays runs clean up a bit.

Easy now....this is a family channel.

I had to google her... Shows my age

Living a happy life is learning to compromise. We'll all be happy w/ an EPS/GFS compromise. See....that was easy.

Long duration is a win no matter how it stacks up (well as long as it stacks up enough to play in). 6z GFS says the same snow late morning sunday right into tuesday morning rush hour. AND......if thats not enough, it looks like more opps coming on the heels of next weeks event. Takeaway is it looks and feels like normal winter....and normal is good.

That’s what we needed to hear. Less mixy means he’s cavin to the king.

Nice post. That low cluster to the western side still would be great for many inland and ok here in LSV although more taint possible. Cluster just off the Chesapeake bay seams reasonable given spread shown.

Wow. I didn’t look at color maps. Just 500s and surface. Good to see it coming in line. This might actually happen.

Nice tick in the right direction and a couple moves away from a whopper. Primary dies a bit quicker death and once secondary pops it comes up and stalls then crawls up and out. Verbatim it also shows a prolonged event with approx around 48 hrs of snow.

No explanation needed and well stated. Just playin.

not sure if that adds comfort or confusion.