pasnownut

Yep, and seeing the latest and "greatest" para, explains what I'm getting at. Like suggested by some yesterday, a compromise between camps is not a bad hunch to work off of, as we've seen all majors struggle of late. That's not me wishing, that's just my trying to understand the disparities we are seeing inside of 48 hrs till go time.

dude, all good and why we are here. Point/counterpoint is how we learn and what makes this sport fun. No need to explain....I'm not easily offended. I totally get your point. I'm just doing the same from a different lens. If I'm wrong, I'll eat crow the same way I last did. Eat the feathers and throw the meat.

and why we cannot discount norther solutions. Base state is changing. I'd bet the most house money on the model that handles thermal profiles the best and see where it sends the storm.

So he's basically as divided/unsure as we are..... awesome!!

Ok....I'll play.......... On monday you had a storm that was knee deep in the shred factory that ended up having taint all the way to the NY border (potter tioga had sleet). It was NOT modeled to do so. 3 days later you have a storm that was slated to hammer us a week earlier, end up in central NC (spoke to a client 40 min south of Apex NC and she had 2" snow yesterday). That was all during our shutout shredder NAO pattern. Point I'm making is that while this pattern has been stable, systems can and will attack and cannot just assume they'll adjust south. This one has a 1002mb lp trying to cut and will do its best, BUT while the air is deep and cold enough to force under and redevelops off coast the NAO is lifting out giving the coastal pop @ OBX a chance to come north and do a loopdyloop because of it. Several nooners ticked back W with MSLP. If they all started to go east, I'd be buyin what you and trainer are selling. Still enough uncertainty exists to not discount, tucked/more northerly adjustments as we approach go time. Just my .02.

Yep Geography = friction

I'm not sure where that's coming from? The NAO is starting to relax and YES, we had a shred factory over the last couple weeks (and still do), BUT what you are forgetting, is that the shredder is running outta gas this weekend, and the upcoming event just has a nice antecedent airmass to work with, and its deep enough to keep most out of worry for taint, but is not the big bully it once was which gives this storm a chance to lift and not suppress. Point is, you cant just say "atmospheric memory" when the base state is changing. It's been said many times....gotta pay attention to 500's/700's and not just surface. EDIT - and fwiw, I'm not saying in the end that you arent correct, but you cant just look at this storm the same way we've been for the last several weeks.

Im gonna say that the 12z Nam was an improvement. Tightened up a bit, but I can see room for it to go boom..a bit

and that coupled w/ typical miller B screwjobs, is why I dislike them, and why I've set 6-10 as my goal, as the path to victory is often a convoluted mess. Just not clean n easy

I wish I didn’t care.... but I do.

Snooped in Ma forum and they say GFS Ens are awesome! Ima gonna sleep on it. night all.

Wet CMC Things looked better on surface but color maps didn’t quite match up imo. Notable bump north on snow maps.

Voyagers better have someone to shovel or plow. Wow Coal country jackpot.

More tucked at 78 Pinch me

Gfs at 78 is well west and tucked. Oh boy.

You think the euro is onto something or just had bad beer for dinner ?? if it continues to tick south this may be a real battle royale. Gut say it cones north

And I bet many are now paying attention to z icon. Good lord. That’s nuts fr us in all if eastern pa

Fwiw NAM at 84 is identical mslp placement as 12z euro and precious notably deeper into northern Pa. deep breaths ....

I’m gonna hang out to see if the gfs continues it’s move twds earlier euros then it’s in the hands of the overnight crew. I’m too old and tired from playin hockey tonight.

Looking better fir sure.

They’ve done the same to me. But I just let em ramble as some do appreciate the convo. I just chuckle when they get their panties all wadded up.

Once inside 72 I think majors start to show their stuff as they are higher res but it’s best to use both Op and Ens in that window as consensus and trends with known biases factored are what one looks for with all models. Even the Icon.

All the best bud.

You can move back. We’d be glad to have you.

Man I sure hope so. Seeing the euro op and cmc ens sure were nice, but all were not in agreement. Goalposts should narrow by tomorrow night. 6 vs 16" is still a nice place to be in.