CentralNC

need to see some ground truth before I get too excited. mountains dont count lol

Agree. Radars look pretty good

30 degrees. Nary a flake from the frontal passage. Dont expect much from the slider, but good luck to you peeps down east.

Also in twitter. He is actually a pretty good met in Richmond area (just ask him), but also a first class jerk. Does a pretty good job of explaining his reasoning but don't dare disagree with him or he'll call you names like a 7 year old https://twitter.com/WxriskUpAllNite

Trends I will admit do not look good, but there can always be surprises at nowcast time. I'm pretty skeptical for us back here in the western piedmont, but anywhere east of Burlington I would not give up.

Yup!

In my experience, when the NAM and Euro both latch onto something, it really time to pay attention.

DT really honking it up. But then again he usually does that when it looks like his backyard is in play https://twitter.com/WxriskUpAllNite

Probably the GFS with it's suppressed look

Sleet now in Lewisville. 25 degrees

Snow sleet mix now in Lewisville. Mostly sleet. 22 degrees

Light snow here in Lewisville. 28 degrees

You mean the guy that calls everyone names like a 7 year old? I try to avoid him as much as possible.

This one does https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-southeast-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=counties-map-plot&colorbar=undefined

Lots of options to play around with here. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17#

As mentioned my several members, you can cut those totals at least in half due to runoff, etc

Good read from WPC this morning https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

Ok, so we know for most it will not be all snow but they rarely are. Still a formidable storm. Best since 2018 at my location.

Buhleedat!

Raleigh definitely buying the warm nose. Hard to deny it happening. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 PM Thursday... ...Potentially Hazardous Wintry Precipitation Remains on Track for the End of the Weekend... Surface high pressure will build from the just north of the Great Lakes Region on Saturday towards New England Saturday night. This cold high will create cloudy and cold conditions across the region as a CAD sets up, with highs only in the mid-30s north to mid 40s south. The upper-level low currently moving across the PAC NW will dig southeast towards the Deep South by Sunday morning, and lift northeast across the Appalachians through early Monday. Additionally, surface low pressure will strengthen across the Deep South on Saturday, then move northeast across the Blue Ridge Sunday, while strengthening another low that develops near the eastern half of NC in a "Miller B" scenario. A few showers may develop across the western Piedmont Saturday evening, then widespread precipitation will spread across the region Saturday night through early Sunday night. Models are coming into better agreement with the details, and confidence is increasing that this will be less of a snow event and more of a freezing rain/rain event. All areas will be below zero when precipitation begins to fall Saturday night, and most areas north of the Sandhills and southern Piedmont will likely see snow where it develops, while southern areas have a rain/snow mix. Then by early Sunday morning, a warm nose develops as the the possibility of freezing rain/sleet spreads north to just south of the Triangle by noon. By late Sunday afternoon, areas away from the Triad will likely have rain, while freezing rain becomes the dominant precipitation type across the northwest. This warm nose will lower snowfall amounts across most areas, even the Triad. Accumulating ice will become the greater hazard in the afternoon, and with wind gusts around 25 mph, could easily break weak icy tree branches. A dry slot will likely cut off moisture and end precipitation quickly late Sunday evening into early Sunday night. A Winter Storm Watch may be issued for portions of central NC either tonight or Friday morning. Highs Sunday will range from near 30 far NW to near 50 far SE. Surface high pressure then builds across the SE for early to mid next week, with highs rising to the mid 40s to mid 50s by Wednesday. The next chance of precipitation will be late Wednesday into Thursday as a surface cold front pushes across the region and an upper-level shortwave moves in from the east.

GSP going with WSW for entire CWA

NAM for the win?

Hunch says Triad, but they can't both get clobbered. See 1/22/1987 storm

Welcome back. Note: most are still addicted to colorful snow maps.

But also want to add that **someone** will end up with severe ZR out of this it does appear. Won't know until Sat. at the earliest.