wisconsinwx

It better be

Yeah, the training MCS' and cells that late summer were many around here, some crazy rainfall totals in spots through August and September. It's fine if we have to wait until then, as long as it delivers.

No problem with that, but in the severe thread....

It happens here too where the lake diminishes the storms via the lake breeze, another impressive aspect of that June 21 complex. There were E/SE winds all day, highs in the mid 70s and plenty of cloud cover yet the storms did not weaken at all (and lasted well beyond Milwaukee obviously).

The origins of those storms were in SC Wisconsin I believe and gave us the Eagle tornado the evening of the 21st. On the 18th there were two consecutive derechos that came through many of the same areas (we were only impacted by one here but it was still noteworthy).

Yep, the week of storm action starting June 18, 2010 (it was a Friday) through June 24 gave excitement for everyone in this forum I believe.

I agree it feels that way for me too. Besides 2010 and 2014, not any recent years stand out for garden variety storms, let alone severe, and what we do get tend to be very progressive. 2000-2010 was a lot more exciting for storms imo than 2011-2020 have been.

zzzzz

Yeah, garden variety storms are all the rage, and if you're not with it I guess it's back to your regularly scheduled programming....

If anyone here is watching the final round of the RBC Heritage, it’s frustrating. 0-10% chance of anything and this cell pops up about 5 miles NW of Harbour Town, stationary. In the meantime more cells popping up. I don’t understand in these warm humid setups like the SE coast they should always keep in a low chance for a pop up because it seems to happen often enough, even when they aren’t expecting them.

Still too early to feel great, but the trends in Wisconsin the last couple weeks sure have been promising. Fingers crossed the protests and other gatherings don't mess things up; since May 30 almost every day the percent positive has been between 2-4% and today so far it has dropped below 2% for the first time since the beginning of the outbreak I believe.

Even when it was King it was normally for winter events, I don't think it's ever been stellar for summer (and particularly concerning convection).

Not for a decent period of time like this in June (usually only briefly with severe storms).

It was only a matter of time until a 'crystal ball' reference. No one would've wanted a crystal ball looking into this year's events, unless they could prevent some of the happenings...

Does the ICON have a CAPE map available? It looks like this evolution may give a shot at some thunderstorms, not sure of the severity, but timing may be decent to let us destabilize.

If we did, I think it'd be much more likely September onwards.

I don't think you'd want 5 inches of soaking stratiform rain like we got the Sunday after Mother's Day this year....I wouldn't wish flooding with no thunder/lightning on my worst weather enemy.

Thankfully it's only one day of this around here, back to drier dewpoints tomorrow.

Maybe he's like me where it's been so long since I've even had a thunderstorm (for Spring standards) that any line bearing down looks strong.

Imagine if it motored at that speed, the line in C Wisconsin that seems to be congealing is moving at a pretty fair clip.

You don't think so? Maybe more WNW to ESE but largely that's the way they've been moving so far and models, at worst, have them moving W to E. The further south development so far means the HRRR should be taken with a major grain of salt.

Common sense includes not much evidence of spread outdoors (and when sun is involved, an even lower chance). That isn't to say it's foolproof, but I'd call that part of common sense, knowing when a mask is necessary (a crowded grocery store) vs when it should be voluntary and not a big deal to not have a mask (on your daily walk in a low crowd situation).

A lot of them are the older generation, who figure they'd rather live a free rest of their life than have a year or two of strict policies when they may not have that many years longer to enjoy their lives. I understand both the high caution sentiment and the cavalier sentiment, the truth is we should be looking somewhere in between. People should not be uptight about no masks and moderate crowds outdoors, it's indoors where people should be really concerned (especially in heavy breathing/talking environments).

Happens a lot with our NWS office; they steer towards climo in the 2-7 day range, then correct as time goes on.

Is that 87F for ORD this hour legit? With SE winds no less? I don’t think they were even predicting them to get to 80F today.