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wisconsinwx

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Everything posted by wisconsinwx

  1. wisconsinwx
    A wise friend once told me ‘Compaction is no subtraction’. He was right in more than one facet of life!
  2. wisconsinwx
    Alek lives on the lake so no guarantees of upping things by him.
  3. wisconsinwx
    Honestly he may reel this one in for HBY, but he’s about halfway there right now.
  4. wisconsinwx
    Is there a reason the OP GFS is consistently different than the Ensemble mean with respect to 925mb temps? Is it an initialization error or something else? I'd imagine if the same software was used for the operational as the Ensembles it would be a lottery and some runs the OP would be more bullish.
  5. wisconsinwx
    I think he was talking about the HRRR run above his post.
  6. wisconsinwx
    This is one of those few storms where Kuchera probably gives you a better idea than 10:1 because even if precip type is right ratios will probably be 6-8:1 realistically on average.
  7. wisconsinwx
    Euro Ensembles from the last couple runs quite a bit further south with best swath of snow (S Iowa to N Illinois) vs 12z GFS Ensembles (heaviest swath N Iowa to Green Bay or so). Thermals on GFS probably factor in to this but pretty significant there.
  8. wisconsinwx
    Early call of 3-5” here, 4-6” Chicago and 2-4” for Detroit. Minneapolis could well be DAB.
  9. wisconsinwx
    You downgrading your call to FAB?
  10. wisconsinwx
    This would be a Grinch storm for a lot of us on the 0z GFS. Interesting to see if this is one where existing snowpack/baroclinic zone created by this snowpack is a factor. Not sure it will be, but would be the main candidate for this theory so far this winter.
  11. wisconsinwx
    Right on, this one was a positive surprise, no complaints! Looked beautiful out there this morning. I am still going to go with the Alek theory of forecasting, but I won't go for the shock factor on initial guesses. It would've been best in the end to broad brush all the major Upper Midwest and Great Lakes cities with 4-7" as it turned out. Not a bad spread the wealth storm.
  12. wisconsinwx
    Looks about right, the good ole MKE warm tongue.
  13. wisconsinwx
    1.7" as of 755pm. North Chicago burbs already doubling up on this total (for people who think I was talking out of my behind with Chicago area outsnowing Milwaukee).
  14. wisconsinwx
    Pouring fine flakes now, guess when it started? Right at sunset!
  15. wisconsinwx
    Just remember it’s daytime ripping snow which you didn’t think you’d see a few days ago (when you thought the heaviest may fall at night).
  16. wisconsinwx
    I am definitely revising my Milwaukee and Racine calls you to 3-5” and my Minneapolis call to 6-8”. The others look fine, and I still think Chicago will see more intense snow than here (but also more mixing keeping them in the 3-5 range) but too much evidence against keeping the area under 3”.
  17. wisconsinwx
    I do think the orientation of the snow totals may not be far off 12/1/07, this is similar in being a snow to dry slot/mix for Milwaukee and Chicago with no issues for precip type in Minneapolis. One difference is this will likely stay snow a bit farther south than that one, as well as the time of day (and of course the former being an early winter storm).
  18. wisconsinwx
    That’s the smart way of doing things. With how many events the models temper within 48 hours it’s the cool, calm collected, non boy cry wolf way to go
  19. wisconsinwx
    As usual, very mixed feedback, it’s the GFS/ARW (which fit the 1-3”, heavier in each direction) vs other guidance.
  20. wisconsinwx
    On the positive side, instead of mixing and rain, the Euro looks to dry slot areas north of the Cheddar Curtain after the snow.
  21. wisconsinwx
    I guess last weekend's storm's Euro is this weekend's storm's GEM: looking consistently promising for several runs before pulling the rug out on the excitement. If it happens, the big question is when is the rug pulled?
  22. wisconsinwx
    Though unlikely, a situation like the 18z GFS wouldn’t be totally unprecedented and I’m not going to get burned going too high like the last storm.
  23. wisconsinwx
    Dry air intrusion plus as much of a warm air influence from the lake eventually.
  24. wisconsinwx
    First call:1-3” for the Milwaukee area, 2-4” for Racine and 3-5” for Chicagoland. Probably 4-6” for Detroit and 10-12” for Minneapolis.
  25. wisconsinwx
    Any hope left with this one for Toronto/Ontario posters? In Wisconsin some places in the northern half of the state may see 1-2” and it looks like MKE should stay mostly frozen, but with low QPF probably a half inch of snow accumulation at most.
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