IUsedToHateCold

I had to go out for a walk tonight just to take in the clear sky. 

Great write-up, I agree with just about everything (perhaps a warmer anomaly for November and January). I do think there will be 2-3 weeks in late Dec-early Jan that could be productive for us in the snowfall department. It's a roll of the dice. 

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Unless we revert back to pattern of last 7-10 years.

Why would we believe it wouldn't? 

Add that the current CONUS temperature anomalies for this month look nothing like that map of October '00. We're seeing above average anomalies in the west/mid-west this year. I actually cannot remember a month where we had wall-to-wall below average temperature departures for the entire CONUS in the past 10 years.

Could the GFS have been right? Heavy rain doesn’t look to let up soon. 

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Charleston estimated 6-7” of rain so far in this band. Wonder how susceptible they are to rain flooding.

Yeah nobody is talking about the rain for NC and SC, with the modeled track it’s bound to be a flooding hazard

I'm not sure about snowfall, but this is what I'm currently thinking for temperature departures:

November: torch (maybe warmest ever?)

December: -1 to -2

January: 0 to +1

February: +4

March: -2

The thinking is an eastern trough in the first half of meteorological winter with a ridge in the second half, with the trough returning in March. 

BWI- 10/25

IAD - 10/24

DCA -12/2

RIC - 10/25

Peak Oct temp at DCA- 84 degrees

27 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Check this - Suppression

This is the weirdest modeled track for a tropical system I’ve ever seen 

Hopefully this morning’s cool temperatures will help kick things off around here so our peak isn’t in mid November and I’m not cleaning up leaves at Christmas like last year. 

6 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm all for drying out and having a stretch of really nice days but i'll be honest when i see model runs with days and days of dry from start to finish i get a tad nervous. Not for any drought concerns but just the dry locking and loading for the winter. Here's to the old rubber band theory or whatever....hope we go back wet as we get closer to December.

September is our driest month climatologically. It'll get wetter in October. 

Oscillations aside, the tonga eruption is going to be the x-factor in this year’s prediction. Given this, I would predict the weather will likely be more abnormal than usual in either a good or bad way for our subforum. It’s less likely to trend closer to the average, IMO.

Notice windows fogged up then stepped outside, feels like a sauna out there. Local weatherbug shows dew point of 75

Crucify me, but I’m not rooting for tropical. Last two low seasons for the Atlantic were excellent snowfall years (2009 and 2014). Let’s keep that basin empty. 

1 hour ago, GATECH said:

Pretty sure we hit 90 + in October, and don’t forget July in December around Christmas!

Easily could see an October with at least one 90 degree day early in the month followed by wintery precip for some places late in the month. Would be the kiss of death for winter though, so I wouldn’t root for that. 

1 hour ago, KAOS said:

Please send here... thanks in advance.

Frequent thunder in the distance.. both east and west, though predominately over the bay (east).

All yours! 

The problem with comparing maps, indices, and analog years is that even if the anomalies are very similar, they are usually not exactly the same. Those tiny differences matter. 

Don’t stick a fork in it. 

Another 3 inches per radar. I’ve now got a leak in my roof. Can I send this rain somewhere else!? 

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not sure what the QBO was doing in 50-51 but this match is pretty uncanny, also, not sure if it was a 3rd year La Niña though. And I really don’t like using analogs from that long ago because we are in a completely, totally different climate state now than we were back then and AGW is accelerating. But: 

 

The cold pool in the GOA is definitely a difference, even if the rest is a good match.

50-51 was a lackluster year for Baltimore. 6.2 inches for the season. 

72 degrees and humid out. Light to moderate rain at times. 

The eyes of doom are set on me 

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So question: What is the difference between the 4 ninas we've had the last 6 years? To a laymen, you look at what happened with snowfall those years and it looks very, very similar. So like...I don't know much about teleconmections, but just a simple look at the totals and how we got there...and how we missed, it looks the same to me.

The trend I see in Nina years for our area is small to moderate events. They're mostly suppressed and clip our area from the S/E, favoring areas east of the fall line but not packing a huge amount of punch in terms of totals. We also see plenty of cutters and systems impacting PA. We seem to be lacking big epic storms like 2016 in these years, but we can nickle-and-dime ourselves to around climo (slightly below or above)

14 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Is it that hard to predict, though? I mean ya coulda said that last year and yet the enso that we knew was gonna be there determined exactly what happened. Now unless enso changes...what's hard to predict?

Yeah, pretty hard. Beyond ENSO, what kind of ENSO (where exactly are the hot/cold anomalies situated)? There's also all the other teleconnections: QBO, PDO, IOD, etc... These may very well be the tip of the iceberg as well, for if this were truly easy, then with the powerful computers and tools available we would have solved forecasting seasonal anomalies already and this discussion would be moot. 

Even if this season is mostly a bust in terms of a shutout pattern, the other thing to remember is that the transition periods between pattern regimes may provide chances which have to be factored into consideration. When those transitions will happen is anybody's guess. That's why I keep saying there is a considerable luck factor involved. 

35 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Very mediocre. Basically a one month winter, but here we had good snows in both March and April. We have had much much worse. The year before was a good winter everywhere west of the Blue Ridge. 
 

Both winter threads were nothing but doom and gloom going in. Usually the same posters. I could name names but won’t. I would grade the past two winters as a B and a C-. The two threads were both F-

I hold out some hope for this winter. There are just so many factors involved it’s hard to predict. Then there is always dumb luck. 
 

We will see how things look in November. 

Deluge down here in the swamp. 

Mix of sun and clouds here. My area has done quite well for severe this year between the tornado and the microburst a couple of weeks ago, so I'm kind of expecting something. Let's hope this run comes without any power outages.