IUsedToHateCold

I'm riding the NAM at this point. Model is good at this range.

33.6/29.2

I don't know what to say other than I've felt this storm for over a week now and everything that's happened this week has led me to believe this is going to be a big thing. 

Rest up because tomorrow we celebrate. 

10 minutes ago, bncho said:

You know why this happened? The Alberta vort phased! It's a mother fucking TRIPLE PHASER

This thing is a true HECS....

38.3/29.7, cooling off nicely

Sending big Nat 20 energy for tomorrow. Let's reel it in. 

I'm hugging the NAM and the dice on this one. I think the NW trend continues right up until game time and we get crushed east of DC ala Feb 1979. 20"+ for my yard with a rapid falloff wherever the western edge of the CCB sets up somewhere between here and NOVA. Then the mountains get crushed with the IVT and get at least 8" with 12"-16" in places

18 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

How? Chesapeake bay running 34F (I measured 33.8F yesterday) and we have a gale warning for winds off the water. Peak surface temperatures for Annapolis area will be held close to freezing from those winds. I don’t see temperatures near the water to be a problem.

This is one of the rare times the water is helping to keep us cooler out here. If you look at the Weather Underground map of stations you see a 5 degree difference near the water. 

I was out most of the day but I was gonna say we needed the 18z NAM to deliver, and it definitely did. I'm going high end all in. 20 inches for the Nat 20. 
 

Just now, anotherman said:

Damn

We ride the GFS at this point. It's no king but it has the lead on this storm. 

Just now, bncho said:

It's PBP time. Depending on how how I do will determine whether I do this again.

Remember that I will likely make mistakes. I will probably overreact and jump to conclusions. And I will probably overexaggerate every minute change. Please bear with me though, as these are the most important 0z runs of the 2020s.

Euro AI running.

Bring us home. 

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Why am I becoming important to this storm? I ask for you to roll the dice, you get a 20. Then I do PBP. Then I see my name on an analysis map from February 13. TF?

I wouldn't have rolled the die without you.... Seriously wasn't even going to consider it. 

I asked "what would it take for the Euro to cave the GFS"

Someone, I think it was bncho went "roll the die" 

And I thought, "no f*ing way"... and threw the die down. 

And so it was born. 

If this thing really happens it's always going to be the Nat 20 storm. 

3 minutes ago, Twilly05 said:

Where is bob chill????

he's kind of out of the game on this one

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

probably retiring from PBP. if randy says I suck i must really suck

Practice, friend. You will get better. The greats aren't made in a day. 

I believe

In a storm I felt was going to be a hit a week ago
In a storm nobody thought was possible
In a Nat 20 out of nowhere
In models that are trending in the right direction for once
In a chance for an HECS
00z is when we're going to reel it in. 
@bncho's riveting pbp

Bring it home. 

1 minute ago, bncho said:

That's a Nat 20 panel. I'll sign for it now. 

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

This buries @CAPE into another universe. It's not too shabby for the rest of us either. I'll take 20 inches to match the Nat 20 roll. 

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Baltimore officially under the gun.

Considering this is a watch and not a warning I'm kind of dumbfounded that they didn't go with at least all of Central MD and DC area. A few more obedient ticks by our Canadian Shortwave friends and we're going to cash big on this. It's a watch, just do it. 

5 minutes ago, balltermen said:

Dynamic cooling doesn't work here. we need a proper airmass 

What? 

If you have the rates you will get dynamic cooling. Location has nothing to do with it. 

Getting the rates could be the issue depending on what plays out. If you get under a coastal CCB you're going to get nuked with snow heavy enough that it's gonna accumulate whether you like it or not. The question is whether or not it will get west enough and how strong it will be. 

5 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Yea. I don’t why people need to be negative. If they don’t think it is not going to happen then why be here. Just to say you were right? 

Upvote 1000 times please. There are plenty of better things to do than piss in other people's cheerios because your yard lost 10 inches of digital snow. Nobody wants to read it and nobody cares. 

I've been on this forum and previously Eastern for almost 20 years and my post count is less than 1000. I've posted more in recent years, but I do believe many people should post less. 

It's a big day. Euro/CMC/Icon and friends all need to join the GFS party. Sending my energy to the Canadian Shortwave Obedience Program. Shipshape guys. 

Now let's focus and get this done. 

It's there, we just need to reel it in.

Collective willpower now, pushing microcosmic energy to distant Canadian shortwaves to position them in just the right places. 

We can do this. 

It's time.

In time for the important model runs: 

Just now, Jake Wx said:

ALL HAIL KING GFS 

I ain't crowning it yet, but damn it picked a good time to potentially be right. 

Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps the die roll was right....

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So yeah, as others have pointed out the key is those s/w up in south central Canada.  GFS just merges them, Euro keeps them separate.  So I guess we look for that on future runs of the models

It's always the shortwave in Canada. Always. 

Can't we just tell the shortwave to behave? Will simple instructions work? Do we need to scream up into the clouds? Send up a balloon? Write it a haiku? 

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Excellent song choice 

I love that song too. 

The dice got me in. Euro cave at HH?

(sure, it's *probably* not happening, but I'm going to suspend my disbelief)

 

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Roll your dice. We need a d20

Holy shit, I legit rolled a nat 20. No joke.