IUsedToHateCold

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

The guy from channel 4 said 76-77 and 11-12 is what he was thinking.  That should be interesting.  

Yeah I think he’s wrong. We could easily have a 2010-2011 type season but I think 2011-2012 is unlikely. 

20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I’ve increasingly come to like 95-96 as an analog, despite some significant differences. I think volatile is the right word and I point the finger at the volcano. I could easily see a winter much like this month with periods of extreme warm and cold, and with definite potential for some major snow. 

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Don't look at the screen, don't look at the screen, don't look at the screen...*looks at screen with an 1/8th of an eye open*

Holy…. 

RN 66/66, looking forward to tracking some severe storms in a bit. Can’t wait for the rain to clear out so I can go out and enjoy a last bit of warmth before the cold sets in. 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

There is no narrative. If the new Euro seasonal is correct, anywhere south of New England is done, finished, say goodnight and goodbye. That is fact, not opinion, not a troll, not a guess

Those are pretty strong words and not based in any kind of reality. 

On 10/24/2022 at 8:02 PM, leesburg 04 said:

When do we hit 80 again?

On 10/25/2022 at 8:14 AM, IUsedToHateCold said:

First week of November 

Today.

Local weatherbug already has 70. We are making a run at 80 today 

17 hours ago, RickinBaltimore said:

I've already heard Mariah Carey once today. It's going to be a long holiday season isn't it?

FFS, can’t they keep it off until Thanksgiving? Ugh. 

Torchvember has begun. My prediction is warmest ever for DCA. 

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Hope so! I don’t mind a warm November (assuming it flips in mid-December), but I am mildly annoyed how late the first freeze will probably be now.

Yes it hurts. My prediction for DCA to freeze in December might come in accurate and I might have nailed it almost entirely if RIC and BWI had just been a couple of degrees colder last week. 

Was promised mostly cloudy conditions today. Didn’t see the sun at all. Forecast fail. 

12 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

When do we hit 80 again?

First week of November 

If the GFS is to be believed 11/6 is the next best shot after what looks like a significant warm period. 

Colors are beautiful this year. Patchy in the Bowie/Crofton area. Still a week or two from peak. 

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Well, at least we didn't get October snow this year. Always seems to be a death kiss for winter.

Early November snow is no better IMO. 

14 hours ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

LWX stingy on the freeze warnings as usual. No way IAD doesn’t freeze. Probably BWI and RIC too. 

I’m wrong

38 on my local weatherbug

LWX stingy on the freeze warnings as usual. No way IAD doesn’t freeze. Probably BWI and RIC too. 

Freeze warnings out to down Alabama with this airmass. I’m biased, but this is going to overperform 

13 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Some of the greatest harsh Winters of old had early cold. A break late October/early Nov, then pretty much wall to wall cold until Feb. or March.

      Granted, recent years (20-30) have been different of which many, being the younger generation are going by. 

      

About the closest to wall-to-wall cold I’ve ever seen was growing up in Massachusetts in the late 80s/early 90s. I haven’t seen it in Maryland since I moved here in 2011. 

18 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Around 15th Oct I like to put finishing comments on this.

I continue to increase in encouragement.

Those hanging hats on Nina making east/mid Atlantic dry and mild will fail. This coolest October in a long time is part of a long term pattern change. I’m no longer worried about “wasting the cold”  I mentioned there are some Big years  in my analogs and very few failure winters. I’m feeling stronger about that. I don’t revise my numerics but in general I’m leaning colder and snowier than my stated outlook 

 

 

 

I think I’m more willing to attribute this anomalous October weather to the volcano. It would have been nice to see this in January, but I don’t think it’s happening. The -NAO/+PNA pattern is not going to stick around, and when it goes we torch. Chances of that happening in winter go up each day we don’t flip. I think if we could get that flip to happen in the next couple of weeks we could have the type of January you are talking about, but the window is closing fast. 

5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

I like my chances for a first freeze for IAD, BWI, and RIC

Current GFS also puts RIC in the possibility category for the next week (it has an even lower temperature than BWI for Wed morning)

Local weatherbug has 34. Decent frost on the roof and the car. 

Today very well may be the warmest day at DCA this month.