IUsedToHateCold

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

Leaving at 5am tomorrow morning to get a jump on the weather.  Hoping to get the tent up before the cold air slams through which looks to be around 11am-12pm.  WSW says wind chills of -35F, it's gonna be an epic campout.  One of our game cams transmitted a pic this morning that looked like maybe 4" on the ground already.  We're going to try for three nights.  Really it depends on how well the dog can handle it.  

You’re CAMPING in this weather? Wow.

1 minute ago, Blue Dream said:

Yeah it's common knowledge...PHL and BWI is basically the same climate, no?

No. 

I can't remember last time I saw single digits here in Bowie. 2014? I remember it got down to 1 degree. DCA has to be strictly worse. 

29/27. A cold rain indeed. 

32/27 down here in Bowie. Maybe NW crowd in for a treat tomorrow. I’ve got no choice but to be all in on the anafrontal so that’s where I am. Hope it overperforms. 

8 minutes ago, Lucketts Life said:

White dust clouds everywhere today. 

Dumb. The rain is just going to wash it away (unless it's for the mountains in the far west that are going to get snow)

If I get 0.8 inches new snow depth then I’ll take it and run.

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Alex I’ll take things you hardly ever see for 1000.

Looks like a land hurricane to me. It's going to be a crazy FROPA. Like, I'll want to be outside when it moves through to experience the sudden 30-degree temperature drop firsthand. 

There’s way too much gloom in here. If the models are showing a cutter on Monday then I agree but it’s too early to call it done. 

An improvement over 18z, and perhaps more importantly, the GFS is sticking to its guns 

Just dropping this here, if the all-important 18z GFS run doesn't suit you. 

14 minutes ago, Jebman said:

What really, REALLY breaks my heart about The Panic Room, is that The Reaper thinks he can retire.

Please Reaper, come back. This place is just not the same without you. A few years ago, I wanted to know what it was like to get reaped. 

Now, I will never know, even if I gave up on winter for the rest of my life.

Ahh, the weenies begged to be reaped @WxWatcher007

Yet I offer you no Reaper, flying in like a blaze of glory on a cloud of death, Motorhead screaming from his scythe as he plucks your weenie soul from you, its destination an image with your name on it. Yes, there are fates worse than death, fates that make the comfort of the Reaper's hollow of souls look like a five-star hotel. The horde, having seen their clown maps evaporate, their hopes of days at home watching white powder fall while reveling in winter dashed once again by their insidious climate - indeed, capable of putting one of their own to the torch faster than you can say "GFS". Truly they are among the most fearsome of entities. Welcome home.

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Who is running this shit hole? I need to speak with the manager immediately.

Hahahaha.

You think anyone can manage a full horde of weenies running off a cliff? They need not management, but commiseration. 

A tradition that must continue.

For those weenies that hugged the wrong model too long and ran straight off the ledge. For those patterns that bring 70 degree weather in prime climo. For weeks and weeks (and weeks) on end of looking at ensemble output and orchestrating how we end up with a +PNA/-EPO/-AO/-NAO only to be disappointed in the long run.

An homage to our long departed Reaper, may his cursed soul rest in peace. 

A model war: this forum in its highest form. You know where my money is at. GFS scored some nasty coups last year… and if the Euro folds I’ll be ready to crown the GFS king. 

It’s probably meaningless (as the real action is at h5) but I had to lol at the euros temp map that someone posted earlier. Just a weird thumb of arctic air sticking into the middle of the country,

Regardless, we know it’s going to be cold. Be ready to bundle up weenies.

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

It would be really annoying to flip for a little bit, but I think this run would be just that - a super quick flip before temps crash as the CCB cranks.

Same panel for me has me at 33F at the surface, so I might *just* be snow, but either way that flip would be frustrating but not make too terribly much difference in the end.

We flip or dry slot down here in the swamps for all the big ones. No biggie, we still get 1-2 feet from a storm like this. 

GFS was king last year IIRC. That said, weenie rule #1 - hug the model that gives you the most snow. If the euro follows suit I’d see that as a good argument that there’s going to be a major east coast storm somewhere next week. Too soon to know the exact details-just that someone’s going to get it 

Let's be fair, I wouldn't trust the CMC or the Icon with setting a mousetrap at this range. 

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z ignore the snow in the N PA from this week”s storm.

This is just a weird progression. 13 inches in Raleigh and 4 inches for Baltimore, 0.8 inches for New Haven, CT? I'm sure it's possible, but....

Looks pretty similar to 18z through 114, mostly wobbles. 

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Imagine not understanding that our inability to stay cold at this latitude is why snow never sticks around long.

This. If temps are in the low 20s sun angle hardly matters. You might lose a very small amount to it. 

33 degrees and cold rain down here in the swamps

GFS is encouraging. I saw blue over Maryland and I’m taking that as a win. 

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS… at least Christmas is cold….

Now that is some cold. Just need the snow to go with it. 

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

We fail good in this region

It’s been modeled like this for days. We shouldn’t have expected anything. I was hoping to see a flake but even that looks to be out of the question. The warm air aloft is real. Oh well.