IUsedToHateCold

40 degrees. I get maybe a flake and some sleet pellets before my cold rain. I’ll take it.

My picks in the snowfall contest are starting to look real good 

And just like that we’re all rooting for suppression. Which, given the past few years, is not a bad place to be at this point.

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS

Looking at that spread this is far from a done deal. We need to roll well. 

GFS was king last winter. Would really like to see it in our camp. Not going to be bummed if we miss this first one, as there look to be several after it. We have a good chance of cashing.

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO vs. everyone else for Fri/Sat. Best run in several cycles — too bad everything else is drying the system up.

I suppose there was a time when I would take the euro verbatim over the other models, but sadly those days are gone. It’s kind of a weird depiction that doesn’t make a lot of sense IMO, but here’s to hoping that this is the beginning of a trend reversal!

34 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea Dec 10 to 15 onward looks good. We're clearly moving that direction.

Models have been pretty consistent with this for some time, even though there have been wobbles (as to be expected). I'd be very surprised if we're in a shutout pattern come Dec 18th. 

00z Icon and CMC still hint at snow chances for 12/9-12/10, GFS says nope.

On 11/1/2022 at 6:33 PM, IUsedToHateCold said:

Torchvember has begun. My prediction is warmest ever for DCA. 

This didn't happen. If we could go on the first half of the month, then yeah.

Toss the 384 hour OP GFS. Ensembles still showing the big -NAO coming, just a matter of when. If there is one thing that I am afraid of it’s suppression, but we have a good shot at a big one. Keep fingers crossed and roll the dice well. 

39 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Our climo is so bad in December. I hope we can overcome it if the pattern delivers as progged. 

Every once in a while the D20 must come up with a critical hit. We are due, and I'm just about to go off the ledge on the GEFS/EPS/CFS and say... it's probably going to happen.

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Actually pouring here now.

NINA!!!!

Heavy rain inbound for you. Enjoy (or not)

9 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

December to remember or another Niña dud?

I’d rather have snow than a car with an ugly bow on it 

On 11/20/2022 at 11:04 AM, IUsedToHateCold said:

A 2-4 week period of warmth in early December makes sense. I think we rock after that. Could see a repeat of what we saw this month with very warm temps followed by a crash, cold, and this time- snow.

Still think this. Totally fine with a crap pattern for the next few weeks. Then we reload. 

Happy Thanksgiving to all. 

Low of 27. 

5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Did somebody yell fire in this here crowded theater?

Only if anyone bought what the GEFS and CFS are selling wholesale. Which is a fools errand, as all of us know. I am optimistic about our chances for a significant cold period and a winter storm, but I'm nowhere near sold. 

Here we are at Thanksgiving and the Chucki sea is still mostly ice free. Pretty incredible. 

We blew past our forecast high. 58 outside 

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

I still say first week of December has at least one 70 degree day at DCA

The 0z operational GFS I looked at last night supports this.

Down to 25 this morning. 

19. Ground outside looks frozen solid. 

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Hope you feel better too. 

The kiddo has been going to daycare and we’ve all gotten sick 3 times in the last 2 months. Running through the list so fast (flu, cold, rsv…)

That was our life story last fall (we have a 2 year old). Best of luck!

Took a walk tonight. Absolutely stunning - so many stars even for a suburban location. A perfectly crisp 24 degrees. Expect to hit the teens in my location (I've noted over the years I radiate well, perhaps because I am near the patuxent research refuge?)

A 2-4 week period of warmth in early December makes sense. I think we rock after that. Could see a repeat of what we saw this month with very warm temps followed by a crash, cold, and this time- snow.

I've grappled with this much, and I could easily see it being wrong in favor of more average totals, but I've ultimately decided to go with my gut. Which is: go big or go home. 

• BWI: 40"
• DCA: 24"
• IAD: 48"
• RIC: 19"

Tiebreaker SBY: 22"

My yard: 32"

Edit 11/27/22: upped totals