IUsedToHateCold

18/8 here

4 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Cloudy and 14. 

I remember a storm in '78 with good antecedent cold but bad track, with the forecast of an inch or so of snow then quick changeover to rain.  The front end thump way overperformed (PG County at the time) and we got several inches real quick, then a dry slot with mainly drizzle.  We can hope!  

This is the dream for me I here in Bowie. But my expectations are low 

ULL looks to be where the models had it at this time (SW Alabama). By 1PM it should be in central GA and by 7PM western NC.

Just now, jewell2188 said:

The Brady and bill storyline would have been great though!!!

Patriots are nothing without Brady. Probably won't win another superbowl in the next 10 years. Tampa Bay? Very well could. 

5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

We'll have to see how the next few winters play out, but I think it's not unreasonable to think the urban core (parts of DC, Arlington, Alexandria) will move into the USDA 8b hardiness zone (annual min temp between 15-20F).

You could plant some palmetto trees to celebrate. Kind of thinking I’ll plant some of my own if I ever move 

17/6

18/5

24/3, I'll take 30 minutes of heavy snow before the flip and be happy. Just don't want to start as sleet or rain.

22/2 don’t think I will reach my forecast high of 28 (although was higher at midnight)

slate gray and overcast out.  

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Or better yet, by viewing this movie:

I think we will be lacking the iceberg around these parts. I suppose my heart will go on

1 minute ago, Warm Nose said:

Yikes on that ice and wind. Along the BR Loudoun and North is gonna see power outages  

It’s easy to understate that this will be an epic ice storm in some areas that’s going to cause massive power outages and disruptions. I’d rather take the rain and wind 

16 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

This what you’re looking for?

Short pump is 17 degrees colder than me. Ugh. 

6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Funny that it shifted SE with the track like 100 miles from the previous run lol

The final track depends most on the shortwave behind the system if I understand this correctly. That's what is pulling it northward up to PA on the GFS. Ideally we would want that to be weaker or further N/W. The actual track of the storm is fine, but looking at the H5 maps on the GFS you can see the bowling ball being pulled inward as the shortwave dips down to grab it. 

GFS holds serve 

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

0z runs will be a big deal..big deal

I hope 0z marks the moment when our King GFS will lead us into a triumphant victory. Perhaps, with its mighty sword it will deal a deathblow to this evil shortwave that chains the storm to the mountains. Finally free, our storm will run free up the coast at last, delivering snow for all. 

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Its all about the thump now most likely. Get as much as you can up front and pray for a dryslot. 

I really hope not. The GFS torches me with 50 degree temperatures after it passes. Any snow that falls will melt quickly

I’m not giving up until Friday night. Unlikely to change much from then on. Until then? Next run. 

Just now, mob1 said:

That’s perfection. Too bad it’s the ICON

Low heads straight up to Harrisburg PA

Just now, Scraff said:

With the differences toggled back and forth from the 12z to now so far, this could go boom…

All hail the king! Let’s go! 

3 minutes ago, high risk said:

        This is how it *should* be set up, but it's unfortunately not the case right now with the GEFS.    The operational GFS underwent a significant upgrade this past March, including changes to the PBL scheme, radiation, and data assimilation.     Those changes were not made to the GEFS.     So, even the GEFS control run cannot be considered only a lower-resolution version of the operational GFS.     Does that fact that the GEFS members and GFS have larger differences than just resolution explain why no GEFS member looks like the GFS solution?   Impossible to say....

The operational GFS really was spectacular with the past two systems, so this upgrade seems awesome. I'm sure it's not super easy to just roll it out to the GEFS though. 

In any case, we are tracking a 6-day storm, so we're all definitely still in the game. Next run. 

2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

My guess was wrong. Surprised to see it that far north with the hp positioning. Who knows.

Yup. Better luck next time 

120 big hit incoming? 

The king is on tap. Let’s hope it makes us all happy for happy hour 

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Short Pump forecasts go here

Heavy rain. 34 degrees 

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

SE subforum already made a thread. Rookie mistake

They've had a thread for awhile now lol