IUsedToHateCold

GFS+Euro+RGEM all show measurable snowfall for DCA, so the NAM really is on an island.

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

The GFS is either gonna score big, or go down in flames when the other guidance trends towards the NAM at 0z lol. It would get all the shit because it has been steadfast and has now upped the ante with a major snowstorm for a significant part of the region.

I’d love to see the 18z Euro agree with the GFS. If that happens I’d be less afraid of the NAM

I’ll take that 18z GFS and lock it up

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Watch the 18z GFS after sticking with its solution just turn into the NAM after the other models start to come to its solution.

That would ruin my night pretty quick. I don't have high expectations, but I'd at least like to see first flakes for the season. Is it a lot to ask? Probably. 

The NAM is on an island for now. Let’s hope it stays that way. 

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems more likely than not that some places in the sub forum will get accumulation from Monday so I’d suggest starting a thread for the 18z runs.

This is the CAPE storm right? Perhaps they should start it. I believe. 

2 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Looks like the Dec 2018 storm on the Euro 

That’s the one that gave EZF like 8 inches and DCA was cloudy, right? Ugh

2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

 

This storm is playing us like a fiddle. I cannot wait to see the disappointment.

The odds say you are correct. Yet, like a gambler on a 20+ bet losing streak, can we get some luck? At least those of us near 95 who saw almost nothing but sleet last year?

8 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

If this event somehow works out, ya’ll owe me for taking this trip to Puerto Rico. I’ll drop my Venmo and you can all send me a fiver.

If I get more than 3 inches then I will. 

If this is a hit then score a win for the GFS, which had a clue days ago. 

8 minutes ago, IronTy said:

The fabled changeover from rain to snow...take it to the bank, it's happening...like always.  

I'll take it, although I historically do very poorly in this type of event in my location. It's usually 3-5 hours of watching it snow in Frederick/Gaithersburg waiting for a switch that moves as slowly as a slug crawling uphill across the Beltway. Finally it snows but the ground is too wet and I get a pile of slush, maybe an inch. 

I didn't look at the soundings, but as depicted on the 18z GFS the rain line is precariously close. Let's hope that moves to the east. 

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

We just want one event

No, I want back-to-back snowstorms for eight weeks straight. A proper winter. Yes, I'm greedy.

I like the 18z GFS as opposed to the 12z already. Not sure if I should, but definitely colder after the monster storm pushes through. 

Hour 288 on the GFS showing an eastern trough with some serious cold. 

Rain here. Kind of surprising as I expected it all to stay south and east

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Out of the big 3 globals it is mostly the GFS/GEFS that is delaying expansion of the cold further east. Check out the CMC ens today after Jan 1. It is smiling at us lol.

I feel like the GFS had a poor handle on the pattern we're going into now at the end of Dec. I would favor the Euro at this point. 

Snow on a model under 200 hours? On Christmas? Lock it up. Still waiting for my first white Christmas having lived here 10 years now. 

I feel like this has to be the right direction for the Dec 23rd storm

12z versus 6z GFS

3 hours ago, Stormfly said:

The Derecho didn't affect us at all.  We were on the northern fringe.  Which was fine by me!  Northern VA OTOH was a mess indeed.

Sandy also brought wind but we didn't lose power aside from some flickers.  Total number of outages in BGE territory similar to the Jan 26, 2011 "Carmageddon" event. (250K) Irene and Isabel seem to be the highest (outage) events with over 700K outages.

March 2018 was a very long event too.  Fortunately we just don't get widespread winds with full tree canopy.   Even so there is too much vegetation impingement in our area.

Winter 2010-2011 is my favorite analog for this one. It's a match in many different ways (sea ice, SST anomalies, IOD). So maybe another Jan 26, 2011 event to come in 2022? 

I think late Dec/early January will be cold (below normal temps), the question is whether or not there will be any precip.  Perhaps our best chances for a storm are when the -NAO lifts out?

This Saturday also looks quite toasty

GFS sticks a fork in it. 

Suppression: that trend is never your friend. 

It all seemed to start going downhill when this thread was created - aptly denoting it as a "non-event"

That's a nice hit for the Euro. I'm starting to believe this might actually happen. Probably a mistake.

Winds starting to pick up here too

11 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

NC is where you should go to feel better about Mid Atlantic snow climatology.  Take it from one who lives in the NC coastal plain.

Haha I lived in Greenville, NC for several years (2003-2008). Climate isn't good there, but you know what? I want to say they may have had more snow than me in the past couple of years. It's been pretty freakin' awful. Last winter I watched sleetstorm after sleetstorm and the winter before that was only a couple small events.