IUsedToHateCold

1.5 inches measured. Nice winter day. SN- light flakes coming down. 

Under a deeper band right now. Fatties coming down. Eyeballing close to an inch.

First flakes here. It’s happening. 

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Crazy. 30 miles east we have nothing at all. Dry air keep eating away as it tries to move NE. 

I don’t have anything either and I’m a bit closer to DC. 

Just now, caviman2201 said:

She's a beaut, Clark!

I don’t know you and you don’t know me, but we thought the same thing. 

GFS a tad south through 30

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

After all the potential this has shown all week, anything less than 8-10” is a disappointment for many. Let’s see how the GFS comes in here soon. 

I'll be happy with 4 inches, which is a reasonable expectation given climo and the 6z suite. I think it's going to be hard to avoid the CCB being between Philly and NYC or a dryslot/changeover for part of the storm.  But who knows. That's the fun of this hobby, right? 

Just now, BigCountry said:

Is this the type of potential storm where those of us N-NE of DC (Mitchellville/Bowie, MD area) could possible get more snow than the usual areas? When some people complain "it's moving east", is this something that those a little East of DC want? Or tomatos-tomatoes?

I wouldn’t count on it. Deformation bands tend to set up to our north west in most coastal storms. That said, it can happen. I’d lock up the 12z CMC in a heartbeat, but it’s probably wrong. 

The stubborn Goofus continues to sit on an island by itself with that primary being so far north. 

RGEM gets DC into the blue and NAM/HRRR are close misses. My forecast has chance of an isolated snow shower. Perhaps? 

All snow now, coming down pretty good, already a light coat on the car.

I’ve got sleet and rain here in Bowie. 

33 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Rates alone can't but if the atmosphere above is dry,  as the snow melts and evaporates the column can cool and help turn the rain to snow.  That's what the models have been advertising. 

Thanks! 

36 degrees and nothing falling yet here. 

If it's raining in Winchester I assume the mid levels are too warm. I would also assume that since it's rain (not sleet) that they are pretty warm indeed. Can rates really overcome that? 

I really just don't want to get my hopes up for snow if this is just going to be freezing rain. 

The Euro will always be king in my heart. 15 years of tracking weather and it has usually been more right than the other models. Fond memories of how it was the only one to predict the recurve of that hurricane several years ago and all the models caved to it at the end. 
 

It’s hard to accept a world where it caves to the GFS. 
 

So dear Euro-please show us a 20 inch area wide event at 12z
 

27 minutes ago, H2O said:

Back in the grey again.  I'm out

With the suppression trend this year I won’t be surprised if we are complaining about all the QPF being in NC in a few days. 

I remember shoveling the 6+ inches of snow on the March 2018 storm. Was definitely surprised to be in the higher totals area.

Popeye's biscuits are in indeed incredible. 

Still waiting on something to pop on the models. Appreciate all the analysis here. It just feels like a roll of the dice. We have to win eventually. The roulette wheel doesn't always come up black. 

Cold anomalies still sitting in Russia. I'm sure someone smarter than me can tell me the weather reason for this and if it might change. Probably the crappy pac I read about a lot here?

I dunno, I just feel like the cold air has been in Siberia for all of this winter. I look at the temperature anomaly maps every day and I see a big blue and white ball of cold anomalies in Kazakstan that doesn't want to budge. Hopefully that changes.  

I’ll take a 100 mile jog NW and a flurry for the Saturday storm and be happy. 

Ukie is on an island. That said, models didn't clue into the exact track and strength of the December storm until 2-3 days out, so I would think there is no reason to give up on it. On to 18z

Light snow flurry appeared out of nowhere 

A few flurries out there in Bowie

In 9 years of living in the DC area I can't remember another time where I saw a completely vertical radar like this. Really weird.