IUsedToHateCold

I’ve pretty much punted on accumulations at this point after 2 inches of rain, but some snow falling tomorrow morning would be nice. GFS still shows it ending as snow around 7AM. 

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

LOL it skips over us. Totally believable.

Yeah there is no way DCA is getting 7-9 inches and I am getting 2 inches. No way that map verifies. 

Snow/sleet mix for much of the past half hour - sometimes heavy snow, sometimes heavy sleet, sometimes a mix of both. 

Heavy snow, CC line is 15 miles to my south. Could flip at any minute, but enjoying this while it lasts. Eyeballing about .2 of an inch? Everything caved. 

Moderate snow sticking to everything

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Some good news, especially for the I-95 crew and the immediate low landers. Frederiskcburg and Louisa, VA were -RA at the start but once the heavier precip moved in they've not flipped to -SN. Even Quantico, which is right on the river, has -SN now so there might be a bit more 'boom' with the snow thanks to the earlier onset.

After 10-15 minutes of sleet (with light accumulation), it appears I turned back to light snow, so this is good

Had flurries and a little bit of light snow for 15 minutes, then went to mostly sleet. 

It's like rolling the dice, except the dice are more stacked against you with every mile east you are. 

I suppose I'll be happy if I have any snow on the ground when this thing is done. It will be more thrilling to see what kind of whacky weather this thing creates. Obs will be fun tomorrow.

Good luck everyone. May the weather gods of low pressure surface tracks be with you. 

33 on the car thermometer. Hoping for a bit of snow in the beginning before the flip, should be nice. After that it's just another rainy day in Maryland. 

Best run so far for me. Lock it up. 

GFS 24 hours high is north and a tad west of 18z

Hit 68 here today, exceeded the forecast high of 63. Was a great day to mow the lawn and rake leaves. I got to do it in shorts.

11 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Yeah, you want to talk gradients, PG and AA Counties here in MD are like, hold my beer..

Yes, driving from Bowie to Annapolis can be fun in the winter. I've seen huge weather differences (temps 10+ degrees warmer/colder, significant more/less snow), etc..

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Maybe it's just wishcasting, but I have a hard time believing surface temps will be as warm as depicted. When have we ever really had surface temps in the mid 30's during a big snowstorm with a decent high to our north?

I think surface temps are OK to start, but if the low track is too far west there will be mixing issues in the middle. 

I highly doubt the models are wrong here and this is coming much farther north than Fredericksburg, but I'll take a pleasant surprise.

BWI 11.5"

DCA: 5.5"

IAD: 14.25"

RIC: 1.5"

SBY: 2.5"

Interesting as well are the small cold SST anomalies that have recently popped between Newfoundland and the UK. Someone with more knowledge than me probably knows why that is (winds causing upwelling or something). A lot of -NAO years I have looked at had cold SSTs off the coast of Newfoundland, albeit much stronger than what we see now. 

Has anyone ever done correlation analysis between conditions in October/November and the resultant NAO state during DJF? I'm sure it's been done, and I'd be interested in reading if anyone has a link. It's hard to just cancel winter when there is some off-chance that we do have -NAO. While it has only occurred few times in the past 20 years, it's not theoretically impossible, right? It even happened during a Nina in 2010-2011. 

It seems that in the past several years the ENSO state predictions in October didn't really pan out. I remember a lot of predictions for an El Nino and a great winter last year - we all know how that turned out. 

The other lesson from recent years is that the Pac seems to have a lot of influence. I suppose we will see if it just pumps warm air in all winter or if we have a decent shot at some cold and snow. 

Regardless, I suspect November will be colder than average, as it always seems to be, with a warmup in December. After that? Who knows.

Measured 2 inches as the backend wraps up. Nice surprise.

I landed on the right side of this one - at least 1.5", official measurement later. I know some people in Annapolis who are still getting rain

They issued a red flag warning? Why? It's so wet out that I bet you couldn't get a wildfire to spread if you tried. 

Measured 3" even, all snow, coming down moderate-heavy. Like others saw a bit of sleet earlier but it appears that rates have overcome it for now.

Measured 10" in my yard as a final total, not bad at all. 

Measured 9" have fallen, 8" on the ground. Still snowing pretty decently.