IUsedToHateCold

1 minute ago, CntrTim85 said:

Looking good this time in Chesapeake! Too bad my ass will be at Disney. 

I wouldn't "lock this one up" - I've seen plenty of storms go north at the last minute. It's like a curse of the models. Really sucks when you live in NC. 

That's so close it's painful to watch. Just need a slight tick NW and it's huge

The eye of death stills stares at us from afar

18 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

If Charlotte gets 22 inches and I get 2 over the next 3 weeks I am quitting this hobby.

If Charlotte gets 22 inches ever then hell has frozen over. I lived there. 2 inches of snow is a blizzard to them. I think their greatest storm ever was like 14 inches? 

4 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Too late.  12z GFS is a total disaster.   Boring for days followed by a monster storm that avoids DC before curving out to nail NYC and Boston.   

Toss it. We are going to be tracking something soon. I can feel it. Maybe not a BECS though, but something

Local weatherbug already has 34. Going to lose most of my snow, unfortunately. 

11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This may be the winter, and period, that I have the highest hopes for. My reason is I want to go back to the winter thread from the fall. Mods better lock that thread because I may be trolling the hell out of some people when this thing is done.

My comment in that thread is relevant. Seasonal weather really is a roll of the dice. Sometimes global conditions have loaded the dice, but you still get to roll. 

Clearly the GFS on TT encountered the matrix and ceased to function. Leaving us with a 156 panel with what appears to be a small hurricane (that is presumably going straight out to sea)

3 minutes ago, IronTy said:

You ever watch the "extended" part of your local forecast and wait to see if you had a big snowflake in any of the days?  Cause that meant heavy snow.  Ah the good ole days living in Michigan. 

Nope. Don’t remember that. But I do remember the temperature maps. I was in Massachusetts then so there was always snow 

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

My dad and I used to watch the weather channel for hours at a time. They had the 7day forecast on the 20s after the hour, I always watched that shit for the bright white snow on the map because that meant heavy snow.  

Yeah I always watched the weather channel as a kid too. I remember the local on the 8s. Music was calming and I liked reading what they had to say. My parents thought I was weird 

Snow. 32 degrees

2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

Dynamics shifting SE should be a rapid fill near Baltimore and then DC. Coastal moisture starting 

How do you know this? 

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Meso to our SW. Good to see. Some places in WV reporting SN+

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2022/md0040.html

Decent returns showing up north of Roanoke too, which I take as a good sign 

41/19. I like the look of the dark clouds on the western horizon. Will be praying for the GFS coup 

Weird to have such model divergence at this point. Either the GFS is trailblazing as the new king or it’s reprised it’s role as the Goofus. Either way it is on an island. We will know by tomorrow. 

3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I think it’s an over performance regime right now. 

I think the Euro will cave to the GFS. 

Just now, Deck Pic said:

lolz

All hail the king 

It’s a snow-on-snow event for me, assuming everything doesn’t melt by tomorrow night (melting at a pretty good clip today)

So I don’t really care I’ll take whatever I get. What I really wish is that it wouldn’t rain a few days later. I want to keep this snowpack around for as long as possible 

Looks like 0z GFS has the low a tad more north and a more robust precip shield. A slight improvement. 

6 hours ago, Westendsnowguy said:

Maybe instead of just making posts about the GFS being the new king you can use some actual data.....oh wait, no you can't 

While the Euro may have better verification scores overall, one thing I have noticed about models over the years is that they tend to do better in certain patterns over others. Given this line of thinking, when a model gets something right, I think it makes sense to pay better-than-usual attention to it again at least until the pattern changes. Even if the model is not giving me snow. So yeah, I will favor the GFS for this storm. If the GFS doesn't pan out then it will be demoted back to usual status. 

Forecast low temp of 26 already busted low at 22. Snowpack FTW. If any precip falls in the AM it will be icy indeed.   

17 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

HRRR & GFS led the way on the last storm. In HRRR & GFS I Trust. 

I don’t know about the HRRR but I have good reason to favor the GFS given that the Euro basically caved to it the last time. GFS is king until it’s dethroned 

I’ll buy what the GFS is selling. 4 fresh inches are always welcome. It didn’t steer me wrong the last time either.
 

Hard to believe I’m going to win in back to back events though. 

Measured about 10" as the final band moves through. Incredible event for us east of 95. Big thanks to @CAPE for foreseeing this one and taking us to the finish line. 

Still in the yellow deathband. Unbelievable storm. Eyeballing at least 8-9 inches.