Terpeast

Similar to previous run. Its a hold

998 south of wilmington nc

96, snow breaking out, slp turning the corner? Maybe?

90, close to full phase, sfc low ga/sc coast

Serious gulf moisture 87

84, sfc precip breaking out in TN/OH valley from gulf

Wait, tpv and sw are closer together at 78. Too soon to call

72. TPV wester, ss s/w easter, west ridge wester. Yeah, its gonna cave I think

Euro to 60, looking at h5, west ridge smidge east, everything else the same

Honestly, I’m almost rooting for the 0z Euro to put this thing to bed so we can move on. Kinda tired of getting strung along

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Okay fine I’ll lower my expectations to 1”

The only expectation we should have is to see better consensus and consistency Monday morning. Comparing vs past few runs show models still jumping around a lot. They just happened to jump in the same direction this cycle.  

Ukie misses DC like the CMC

Gefs actually trended wetter (snow hole notwithstanding, that’ll probably be gone next run)

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

One thing this storm threat taught us, the euro Ai model is fucking legit. As pissed as I am to say that. Really bad winter up here in Philly, maybe even top 10. Yea we had some events but we were teased with good patterns that couldn’t produce and close calls.

Can’t control it, move on.


.

I didn’t want to say anything, but AIFS verification scores have been beating both op gfs and cmc

I think the ~1060 high is really overdone. Wonder what it will look like if its 1040 instead 

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Pops the coastal in northern FL. Not gonna happen. 

TPV over minnesota and coastal off FL

Clearing out eastward at 93

Snowing decent at 87

Sfc still looks like 18z

More separation between streams at 78

A tick more separation between tpv and ss vort, precip a tick souther. Too early at 69h

No major changes thru 60

GFS running

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

yea lol 

Sorry I get confused with the miller labels sometimes