Terpeast

Just now, TSSN+ said:

It’s wild that it’s still mostly sunny out and in like 8hrs will be dumping snow. 

That's what my wife said. She still doesn't believe it

Surprised to see the warning get expanded east to include mby. 4-6" forecast. East side of IAD 2-5". 

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is always the chance of a last minute curve ball, and there is so much guidance now you will always find something that shows either the solution you want or don't want.  But I wouldn't worry about those two unless we were within 12 hours OR other more reliable guidance were to trend in its direction.  The GFS did shift north some but it was south of the euro.  The euro has been pretty much rock steady for 2 days now.  I think this was just the GFS coming in line with it, and now the better guidance is all aligned.  I am not saying NOT to worry at all but the RAP and HRRR are jumpy and unreliable and I wouldn't base my worries on them without any other support. 

Besides there's only 12 hours left. Not a whole lot of time left for big shifts

Yes, this has trended north, but we're still in the game. If I lived 30 miles south of DC, I'd be sweating it though

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

LWX is doing great honestly. We're just splitting hairs over snow. It's a sickness. It really is.

They're probably rolling their eyes at us now (and I don't blame them lol)

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Instead of wrangling over digital ratios, just use your memory. Imo, because of the start temps in the closer burbs, I don't see how my yard clocks over 10:1 in total without instability or fronto luck (impossible to predict).

Euro has been steady with qpf for a while. It doesn't blow that too often this close with a fairly simple wave. So .40qpf seems like a good # there. 10:1 max avg would lay down an honest 3.5-4". Seems like a fair take but we all have our own way

That's my wag. I called for 2-4" dc/balt metros and 4-7" far N&W, and don't see any reason to change that. I'd love to get 5" out of this, though! 

Western loudoun is either/both higher elevation and less populated than eastern loudoun, so it makes sense they hedged with a warning there. 

It's also a saturday morning, so that's probably why they went with a WWA east loudoun even though they're forecasting for 3-5" locally up to 7" imby. Had it been a weekday, they would have gone with a warning. 

2 minutes ago, EB89 said:

Don’t know if this was posted yet. 

High end potential:

Low end floor:

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

This model has done a terrible job with just about every event this winter.

It did well for one or both of the Jan events, but a terrible job with the recent one a few days ago

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Someone outside the mountains are getting 6-8”. Book it

Probably mount PSU and places up near the m/d line, and someone around the dc metro may eek out 6”

1 minute ago, peribonca said:

Didn't realize how much southern moisture this would be tapping

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/large

 

Technically a stj-enhanced northern stream wave. A good sign for qpf verifying on the high end of forecast 

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

High clouds are already flowing in from the west. Hopefully that caps the temperatures a little bit. Maybe it helps keep the ground colder as well. 

My thoughts too. I’m at 37/19

Temps aren’t the problem north of 66

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Meh. I mean we’re talking a difference of 0.05” here and there. We won’t know til after it hits. How many rainstorms are off by a tenth here or there, unfortunately

Yeah, it’s pretty much noise. 0z ICON is actually similar to 12z

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I need Thunder Snow and 4” for 15” on the season. Then we can call it a winter and bring spring on

Yeah, that would bring the grade on my snowfall outlook from an F to a D

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If someone put a gun to my head, which some east coast weenie may after my past couple of Outlooks....our pathway out of this Pacific origin multi winter purgatory in the east is hurricanes. Uber activity in the Atlantic AND west PAC...just bombard the shit out of that stable ocean configuration and attendant subtropical ridge via an immense amount of upwelling and heat transport.

Interesting take. That may be what it takes to dissipate these marine heat waves. Hopefully we can do that without too much collateral damage.

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Snow exiting @33, a little drier but this time

Looks like 3-4" area wide north of 50/66

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Why’s there another sws even in the watch area? lol 

Weird, not sure. Some overlapping going on there..

4 minutes ago, Wxtrix said:

 

that's a useless graph. it constantly changes.

Probably automated

2 minutes ago, konksw said:

Yeah no advisory for DC at all anymore. What’s going on over there. 

They’ll probably replace it with a new headline. Not sure why they hoisted a special weather statement in the first place, especially seeing that they hoisted a WSW soon after

Glad to see the euro hold instead of trending north. Sticking with 2-4” for dc/balt with a little more upside

8 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Yeah it might be time to delete the thread and start a new one if that happens

Hopefully we may not need to. Ensembles on all models have been zeroing in on our sub and looking more stable. 

1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Not a big fan of the "dual  maximum" look, but whatever...that's yet to be resolved.  I'm just glad to have a decent advisory-level event in the offing, and it now looks like it should stick around for a day and not torch on Saturday now.

Not 100% sure for DC south, even mby. If the 18z euro jumps north from 12z, I’m pulling the fire alarm on this

Interesting tweet, and digging deeper into the upper level maps, I agree.

This gets us more upside in terms of qpf, but the DC metro is dangerously close to missing the best banding with this north trend. 

I don't think we go 4/4 on last minute south trend this time.

Precip field actually shifted north on the GFS too. It's just farther south than other models like NAM and ICON. 

I'm not buying the 4-6" across northern neck and SoMD.