Terpeast

CMC is a beatdown, let's hope it's onto something.

CMC 135, I think its finally starting to turn the corner. Precip building in the Tenn valley

CMC at 126 precip is pretty far south, but lets see if it turns the corner. Still better than the last run

CMC 111 setting us up

6z is an improvement NW of 95

Heavier snows DC & S/E at hr 132, mod snow to blue ridge, still going at 135

Better than 6z

mod snow 129

Lgt snow starts hr 123 for DC metro

PV is more NW instead of previous run pressing further SE

N/S and S/S timing more aligned, making a phase more likely. Still early. 

Just now, Heisy said:

I like how the N wave is backed up a little farther W. I prefer W gives it more room to develop when it eventually tries to


.

Was going to say the same thing.

hr 87, looks like the s/w out west has more room to dig. We'll see. Early

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

did you miss the LAST run where it gave us NOTHING!  why are you setting the bar at some obsolete run 4 cycles ago?  And frankly this run gives me more snow than that one did...it was a bomb for the coastal areas SE of 95 but it wasn't THAT good for places NW of 95.  This run was the most widespread snowstorm its shown on any run for our whole region and other then one bomb solution 24 hours ago a huge improvement over the last run which is what we usually compare a model to.  

Tbf I look at 4-6 past runs to glean any meaningful trends. But if it’s jumpy, it doesn’t mean much it anything. 

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

4” storms are cool and all but we need a forum wide beast asap. Let’s be real

I've been loving these 4-6" storms the past two winters, but I keep fantasizing about getting a big dump of 17", 30", or whatever big number.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I mean there is a difference between getting 8” and being upset someone else got 12” and getting 3” when others got 8-12”.  I’m fine with not being the jack so long as I get into the “meat” of the storm and not another fringe 

And there's a difference between getting a foot in your backyard while Boston gets 3 ft, and getting a foot and watching Raleigh getting 3 ft.

I agree with you, Chuck. I do some of this for a living now, and when others were saying "this is the most +PNA period" I thought something wasn't right. When tracking multiple snow events for mby, I didn't see a classic +PNA much of the time. If anything, it was mostly neutral with an AK ridge with some troughing undercutting it out west.

Alright going to bed, tomorrow will be a very interesting day of tracking and trend watching.

Delmarva and NJ get pummeled 

Looks more like 12z than 18z

Just now, Ji said:

so much for early bedtime

Euro not running yet

Definitely different at h5 over the lakes. Might help bring the trajectory north

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

why--you have from March to December to sleep. Be a real weatherman lol!

I’ll pull an all nighter when we get that nighttime snowstorm. Think strategically, save your energy. 

Who is waiting up for the euro/eps?

Not me, I need sleep

To be clear, I’m not saying jump ship NOW… I’m saying that the trends aren’t great and I want to see what things look like by Saturday, which is when I think we’ll have a better idea what’s going to happen.