Terpeast

First call:

South of 66: 1-2” locally 3”

Between 66 and 70: 2-4”

North of 70: 4-7”

Mountains: 5-10”

Subject to change, hopefully with a last minute south trend. (But it COULD shift north)

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z ICON

Is this where we say “uh oh” and root for a 4th last minute south trend? 

this is the ICON thread after all…

Good run, but careful not to get any further amped else we'll either have temp issues or the best banding goes north of DC

0.5" qpf from harrisonburg through winchester through Loudoun and MoCo

850mb low just south of us, precip almost ending in DMV. 

Not longer duration, but maybe a heavier thump

Heavier precip at 36, could be a longer duration than previous run

Now I see an 850mb low

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Definitely wetter and the moderate precip field is expanded out west...not sure if it will translate once it gets east of the Blue Ridge

SLP further back and 2mb stronger at 33

Big difference at 500mb. Previous run was flat and diffuse, now it's a bit more amped and further west

30-35% chance for 4” or more in dc/balt. I’d take those odds

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Looks on par with Jan 19 to me, if memory serves correctly.

If this verifies or trends any bit wetter, we have a low end warning event. LWX may not go that far because its a saturday

So far models are trending for the better. 36-42 hours out

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Yes but what's with the best guess precip type of rain?

With the qpf and soundings you just posted, their snowfall output is probably wrong

(again, it means nothing as far as verification)

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

wtf

Ukie qpf actually looks about in line with the other models

Just now, yoda said:

Very odd 12z UKIE run... I think we can safely toss

Post it for everyone to see...

3 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Not sure if this was posted or not. Looks good to me! 

LWX has our low end being 1" and high end 5" in the dc/balt metros

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Looks south of what it was before, unless I got my wires crossed up with another model. 

Still think forum wide is good for 2-4" and northern tier get better ratios

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

If that verifies, someone along the m/d line is getting 7”+

I'll happily take a 2-4er

23.7 low, heavy frost. 36 now

Just now, LibertyBell said:

This is what I think too, that will just keep the current pattern in place.  Truthfully, it's hard to think of what would actually cause a big change to the Pacific if a +2.0C very strong el nino couldn't do it after three years of la nina.

Ironically, I think CC will do it. But who knows what will come next

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks.... Do you think Mitchnick is right in his thinking that we need a very strong la nina to entirely change the pacific pattern?

Not if the west pac warm pool and seas off Japan remain boiling. And a strong nina will just concentrate warm waters in the MC

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

La Ninas after El Ninos are usually really good for snowfall, even recently, so hope is not lost.

I’d want to see wholesale changes in the pacific and for those marine heatwaves to cease before thinking anyone east of the rockies get a snowy winter. At least the PDO has been less negative recently, but I’d want to see it firmly in positive territory. 

5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I think we could get 1 more chance in March. Looks to warm up after the 23/24 chance but maybe during the second week of March?

With the debacle of the long range it's hard to know.

 

Its certainly possible. March waves tend to be crazy amplified but timing with cold air will be tricky esepcially this year. 

I’d be happy with one more chance to play in the snow with my daughter and call it a winter, though. That’s where my head’s at now

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

This is still on the table. 

Could be the last chance then that’d be all folks

Yep getting interesting. A little south trend won’t hurt. Wiggle room!

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea. Let’s table the “will it ever snow again” question. I think the more accurate way to phrase what was answered this year was “is it likely we get a region wide cold/snowy winter in this current pacific cycle” and the answer is no. We probably have to wait for this PDO cycle to end for us to have a chance at a region wide 30”+ type winter.  

Agree. Glimmer of hope is that we may not have to wait that long for the -pdo to end. CC may be causing more variability and quicker flips between + and -

Plus according to this graph, we’ve been in a neg pdo since following the 1998 super nino.

Hard to tell and data before 1930 or so is likely suspect, but the cycles were prolonged in the past, and they seem to be shortening over time. 

1840-1880: neg for 40 years
1880-1910: pos for 30 years
1910-1925: brief neg for 15y
1924-1945: pos 20y
1945-1975: neg 30y
1975-1998: pos 23y
1998-now: neg 26y but with brief 2-4 year interruptions

I suspect that it won’t be long until it flips back, but the positive cycles will become shorter each cycle, same with negative. wild card is in the marine heat waves, those may change things in unforeseen ways