Terpeast

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes!  Southwest flies out of IAD and DCA also but those aren’t hubs so flights are more limited. They have more at DCA than IAD unfortunately. Just for a general reference I was looking at flights to Denver the other day and BWI had 16 options, DCA 9 and IAD 2 for the day I looked at.  Obviously for you that’s upside down but still worth looking into. The southwest app is super easy to use to swap flights and use points. 

Cool, just downloaded too. I’ll get on the rapid rewards tomorrow too. Getting ready to get some free flights next year, wherever that may be!

Thanks PSU! BWI is a bit of a drive but willing to give that a try. You use the rapid rewards program?

4 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Get the OpenSnow app... it costs some money at $30/year but it gives great forecasts and very detailed writeups on the weather patterns in the big ski areas, and shows how well each ski area is doing.

I think booking a trip a few weeks in advance is ideal... the main downside is that it costs more (especially airline tickets), but you have a better idea of the pattern and whether it's favorable for snow chances. 

If I'm going to travel all the way out west, I want the conditions and the weather to be worth it. So far every trip I've done has delivered.

Thank you for the app recommendation! Just downloaded it, and when I’m ready to use it I’ll pay

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was thinking this earlier today also. So far we actually had 6 “waves” track under us that affected us with precip. The problem is the 4 that were juiced up stj waves with significant qpf all were too warm. Only the waves that were NS dominant and more progressive were cold enough to be snow. 

I hate to say this but that’s very nina-like. In a strong borderline super nino no less. 

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Colder so far...waiting for next panels to see if it's drier over us

Looks better with temps

this holds through 0z and 12z tomorrow, I’ll be more interested 

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m less concerned about the location of snowfall maximums as I am the recent increase in high elevation rain events.  As an avid skier who makes trips out west regularly I can attest that at many of these ski resorts the difference between a 250” season and a 350” season isn’t all that noticeable in terms of the quality of skiing once you get past early January.  
 

But in recent years there has been a marked increase in warm events that do impact the ski season in a significant way. Rain to elevations unheard of previously. Warm periods where temps get into the 40s and 50s even at 9000 feet!  These wreck the snow quality. And if you actually melt some of the snow in a season where snowfall is low, now it’s noticeable v just a low snow year but when it’s below freezing from Xmas to March!  
 

For 20 years I took a trip out west almost every season and not once had to cancel or change plans due to a freak thaw or rainstorm.  Sometimes conditions were epic and sometimes just good but never was the resort warning of significant closed terrain due to some freak rain or high temps. Winter Park, Vail, Aspen, Taos, Snowbird/Alta, snow basin, A-basin, Jackson, Revy, Breck, Steamboat… not once in all those trips to all those places did I encounter a sheet of ice or closed natural terrain mid winter.  But in the last 5 years 3 times now I’ve had to cancel a trip at the last minute because conditions were crap.  And one time last winter I took a chance and regretted it because Streamboat and Snowmass were both a sheet of ice and most of their expert terrain was un skiable. I could have skied that garbage here for much less.  The west finally got a huge dump just in the last 10 Days but as recently as early Feb many western resorts were still reporting only 80% open terrain. In Feb!  That’s ridiculous!  Many resorts in New England are still only 55-60% open in mid Feb!  
 

We don’t have to argue over why. But as an avid skier warm events affecting ski resorts is most definitely increasing lately. 

Mostly as a personal note to myself- Maybe the smart thing to do is wait until mid-December to book any trip and see which ski areas are doing well.

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They just had a huge rainstorm all the way to the summit a week ago. Like 4” of rain. Wiped out the lower mountain completely and turned the top to a sheet of ice. And this after they got a super late start from a warm December. They’re having maybe the worse year ever there. 

Wow didn’t realize it was so bad there. They have a very low bar to pass next year then

Just now, Jebman said:

I hope Nina plus warm oceans mean 240mph canes smashing the Gulf Coast to smithereens!

I like you Jeb, but no. 

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is the 3rd time a SSW happened when the tpv was already weak and then a blocking regime fell apart. Happened once in 2019 and twice this year. I’m curious about that. 

I heard from another poster (maybe bluewave or someone else?) that a SSW is only good if we already have blocking in place. Didn't turn out to be the case this time, and in 2019. It only seemed to disrupt the blocking we already had. So it's probably better to have that disrupting mechanism when we have a polar domain we don't like, i.e. +AO. Next time I'd rather get a SSW when we have a +AO so we can break it, instead of a SSW potentially ruining a block that was already in place.

(Ji said what I just said in 8 words)

7 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Time to book a March trip to Whistler?

Conditions there will be even better next year

2 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

i can't wait to see the papers analyzing this model fuck-up

Oh, there will be. Maybe as soon as the end of this year?

Would be great to get a slight south trend with colder air so we get the secondary precip max across the DC/Balt metros. Given the makeup of this winter, that certainly isn't out of the question. 

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

RGEM also says no rain unless you are south of CHO

Looks like a dragon's claw

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Looks like a La Nina March. Maybe that'll give us a chance to move on early. I've got a trip out of the country in April so I can happily skip the cold rain, and be back in time for severe weather season.

NAM trended not only warmer, but also faster the past 4 runs. We'll want it to slow down a bit to get it timed better with colder air. 

But with things being so progressive... (I'll let you finish that thought yourselves)

36 minutes ago, Ji said:

do you think yesterdays storm that went south instead of cutting to lakes disrupted the entire global pattern lol?

I'd phrase this question differently. 

If this storm had been a powerful cutter like the 2 we saw in January before the two snows, it might have led to a stronger NAO block. Still doesn't mean we'd get a HECS out of it, though.. because who knows how long that NAO would have lasted anyway. We'll never really know

17 minutes ago, frd said:

Crazy 

BAMWx must be happy.

 

 

 

 

I have a good feeling that this will be papered to death by climate scientists around the world. 

Even if this La Nina stays weak-moderate, the surrounding warmth of the oceans and the West Pac will create a very strong La Nina state much like 2022-23. 

With a +QBO and solar cycle beginning to descend, we will likely have less blocking than even 2022-23. With all the cold air bottled up at the pole/Siberia or again dumping to the western NA, I'm thinking AN to much AN temps across the entire CONUS except maybe near normal over the Pac NW. East coast will likely be much AN+++ with 60s being commonplace, with strings of 70 degree days interspersed throughout even the deepest winter months. 

Warmest winter on record across the east? Even higher chance of that happening than this year and last year. 

Just now, stormtracker said:

widespread 2 to 4 for all of the forum.   Summary, definitely did not dry up/drier

Between the euro and other models that trended souther/drier, I’d call it an overall hold. Still 3 days out

1 hour ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I met JB over 20 years ago. He use to have these "gatherings" which were super weird. He'd just put in his accuweather blog "I am going to be at restaurant XYZ at 10am on Saturday". Like 50 weather weenies just showed up at a restaurant, ordered nothing. And he'd walk in 30 mins late, rant about how winter was coming and all this BS for about 20 minutes and then he'd leave. There was a certain celebrity status amongst the weenies over his presence. I guess I was part of that. I got my photo with him. He saw I was young and asked what college I went to, I stumbled because of nerves and when I did answer he thought I was lying. He gave me a weird look. Even my Dad who was present was like "he thought you were lying". 

Decades later I've come to realize how ridiculous it all was. 

 

Also ask me about the time me and DT went to breakfast in Rhode Island at an Eastern conference. Just me and him. That was something.....let me tell you. 

You had breakfast with DT? 

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

You’d think we’re at 200% of our season average the way we are scoffing at a 1-2” storm

Its amazing what 10 days of wintry conditions in January has done

3 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

The last week of March looks rockin'!

 

Looks familiar. Where have I seen this before?

Oy.. what have I done?

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Weekend snow is the best. No stress.

I’m starting to prefer that. When we lose school days, the kiddo stays home and the only time she’s in a happy mood is when we’re playing outside in the snow. But if we’re not outside, it’s tantrum galore. Rather send her to preschool and keep the snow on weekends when she’s home anyway. 

That’ll change when she hits kindergarten or first grade, but for now… yeah. 

3 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Is track THAT important? Seems like widespread coverage. Its not like the storm yesterday that turn SE NYs 12-18 inches into 1-2 inches. Such a small margin for error. 

If the high end is only 3-4” and we’ve seen last minute shifts of more than 200 miles, then yeah I’d say it does matter

I’m not saying cancel. I’m just not getting too invested until 24-48 hours