Terpeast

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Agree. A -PDO/Nina along with +NAO/+AO = SE ridge on roids, especially with the +AMO tendency the last several years to amplify the SE ridge. If there’s no -NAO to “tame” it, then it’s going to run amok

I take no joy in saying this, but I agree with this assessment. 

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The WB 18Z 5/13 run of the CFS control for Feb 2025 has Memphis a whopping 10 C BN/18 F BN the 1981-2010 climo mean of 45.5! 45.5-18 = 27.5. Coldest on record back to 1875 is 32.0, set in 1899 (before GW). Thus, this prog is for a Feb that is 4.5 colder than the coldest on record (going back 149 years) and that record cold Feb was pre-GW.  
As long as WB is going to keep feeding JB ridiculously cold impossible CFS maps like this (WB CFS unfortunately are very flawed), he’ll have ammunition to keep suggesting a good shot at a very cold E US 2024-5 winter:

Memphis climo: 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=meg

TT map for comparison (yes, it’s apples vs oranges)

I mean, I don’t hate this map. With a cold source nearby, it could be workable. But CFS seems to be on its own, and it’s going to change 1000 times (probably correcting warmer in the last minute)

46 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The only met I’ve read talking at all about a reasonably potential +PDO next winter is JB and that’s based on WB CFS Pacific SSTa maps for then that strongly disagree with other companies’ (including TT) CFS maps. These all show a solid -PDO.

 Currently, the PDO is about as strongly negative as it has been since early Oct of 2023! It has been falling as El Niño has been ending. The NOAA based version is ~-2.5 or lower!

By the daily WCS graph, it’s obvious that the strong nino made a dent in the -PDO, but nowhere enough to flip it positive. With waning nino influence, the PDO is right back as negative as it has been prior to the nino.

It’s going to be a long time before the PDO goes positive, and I don’t know anymore what it will take to drive that. 

2 hours ago, mdhokie said:

You are correct. I guess the cooler periods stand out more because of the effect on outdoor activities. I think it was wxusaf who said we are either torch or cold, not getting the actual "average" of the month. 

Worth noting that the magnitude of warm anomalies, however short-lived they may be, have been becoming more extreme and are skewing most months AN. 

If we have a month with 3 weeks of -2 departures, then 1 week of +15, that month is going to end up at least +3 AN or even higher. (You can play with the math and see how it works out)

For example, remember that 80 degree day in this January? Take that day away, and Jan 2024 actually ends up just around normal temp wise. 

Checked ouside at 3:30 am, didn’t see anything. One more chance tonight

Sunny out, hoping to catch curtain sightings tonight at around 9-11 pm before I go to bed

While we’re looking far ahead, CFS is projecting a crazy active tropics.

I hope folks from lesser antilles up through VA beach are prepared to board up or have evac plans. If I lived in Florida, I’d be packing a Go bag right about now.

CanSips - YIKES

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Fantasy run....WB Long range...

Is it just WB or is the CFS predicting that most of the NH except the pole is gonna go colder than the 1981-2010 normal? 

Missed it early this morning, but will BOLO for it tonight

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Blocking is always warm when it links up with the Southeast ridge and becomes more south based. But it results in frequent backdoor cold fronts in the spring. So we get a back and forth between warm ups and cool downs with the warm departures ultimately winning out.

We had very strong blocking in the spring during 2010 also. But it build down SW to the Great Lakes which made it the warmest spring blocking pattern on record. The ridge axis wound up to our west so we had much lower instances of backdoors. Since we had more S to SW flow. This spring the ridge axis is more into Eastern New England allowing more frequent onshore flow and backdoor cold frontal passages.
 

Although I didn’t think they were related before (couldn’t find a convincing enough link), I’m starting to believe that the AMO cycle leads to more SE ridge link ups with HL blocking. Do we know that if this happened in previous +AMO cycles let’s say, prior to 1980 or so?

DCA 100

IAD 102

BWI 102

RIC 101

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The new Euro has not only reversed its Apr forecast, which had warmed ENSO considerably from the month before, but it also warmed the MDR significantly (new run on left)(fwiw of course):

 

And the north pac is progged even hotter (more deeply negative PDO)

0.90” total so far both yesterday and today

Stepped outside of Dulles airport coming back from relentless SE Asian heat, hoping for some refreshing cool weather… NOPE!

Yes, please. 

Doctor just ordered prescription glasses with special lens that block out blue light. Said it was because I stare at a white screen all day for work.

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Cfs will literally change 100+ times before then.

Yes it will. But this depiction, in my opinion, is well supported by the combination of the projected nina + neg PDO + marine heat wave off Japan.

4 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

Just picked a forecast (HCM City) and it's highs in the low 100s and lows mid 80s for the next several days - holy moly!

Chilly, rainy and dreary as we we wait for the warm front.  What a boundary!  There's a couple upper 40s in SW PA and not too far west near Pittsburgh there are low 80s.  All of WV is cooking

Yep, that’s where we are. And that’s not even the hottest spot… HCM is close to the coast so it gets some marine influence that limits high temps. Areas further inland, even the suburbs, have been routinely reaching 105. Brutal. 

Reading this forum as they look for their first 90 degree day seems a bit quaint (no offense intended) as I’m here literally melting in 100 degree heat in Vietnam. It’s been hitting 100+ for more than a month now, through the entire duration of our 3-week trip here, and looks to last through late May. Southeast Asia has been baking, making me root for a strong nina so they could at least get some relief. They need it. 

On 2/15/2024 at 1:36 AM, Terpeast said:

Even if this La Nina stays weak-moderate, the surrounding warmth of the oceans and the West Pac will create a very strong La Nina state much like 2022-23. 

With a +QBO and solar cycle beginning to descend, we will likely have less blocking than even 2022-23. With all the cold air bottled up at the pole/Siberia or again dumping to the western NA, I'm thinking AN to much AN temps across the entire CONUS except maybe near normal over the Pac NW. East coast will likely be much AN+++ with 60s being commonplace, with strings of 70 degree days interspersed throughout even the deepest winter months. 

Warmest winter on record across the east? Even higher chance of that happening than this year and last year. 

I know it’s way early, but CFS is thinking along similar lines for January. 

Cansips DJF

Few minutes after peak

That was cool, even though it wasn’t totality here. Amazing stuff even so. Sun was just a sliver. Felt the acute cooldown and dimdown

Getting close to 90% coverage

75% coverage now. Feels cooler, slightly darker. Sitting out on my deck with a beverage…

lots of big black birds are out now all of a sudden…

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

We got lucky! Incredible!!! Photo is a photo from the back of my camera. Good luck all!

Wow, you even captured the diamond ring effect!