Terpeast

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

 

You are not qualified to do that.  You were about 15 when he wrote it and are not a met  nor atmospheric scientist.

And yet he understands more about the climate and its trends than most mets and atmos scientists do. 

44 minutes ago, Ji said:

Thanks! I’ll keep my eye on that. I wonder if it uses the gfs

Can’t wait to read your one paragraph winter preview next fall!

I’m not sure if it will be even as long as one paragraph!

2 hours ago, Ji said:

how far does it go out too?

10 days. Last 3 are warm, and that’s going to verify for sure. Maybe even warmer

Crap, i was using metric (been overseas for too long) here’s the fahrenheit version lol

As a rule of thumb, if I don’t see cold/BN temperatures in all of the last 3 days within my apple weather app, we’re not seeing cold anytime soon. 

Following this ^^ rule would have been much more accurate than models. 

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

No posts. Pretty much tells me that any potential for mid month on is shot. No need to look

We may hit 70 next week

9 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This is how you get an active severe weather year

 

 

Of course, I’ll be out of the country most of April. So it’ll be a fun month for everyone here. 

17 hours ago, IronTy said:

No way.  Last winter was obvious it was not going to snow so expectations were low and the winter delivered on that.

This winter was hyped up to no end even up til just a week or two ago and all I got was one storm that put down 1.5" and another that literally accumulated and melted all during my morning time on the toilet.  

 

The upside was much higher, yes… but in the back of my mind, my greatest fear was a warmer version of a 1972-73, which was the only match if you looked at the PDO and ENSO. There was always a non-zero chance for a ratter, and to be fair, most of our subforum did avoid a rat. We just fell short of climo and way short of the upside, where our expectations were. 

45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How did you determine the current temp base state?  With the temps having spiked so much the last 9 years might those methods be underestimating the warmth at all. I know some if this current extreme warmth might be cyclical not permanent so I’m not saying we should have estimated it based on the last 5 years but wondering if when adjusting a winter from prior to 2016 if right now we’re in a worse spot than even that method indicates. 

Used a linear trend from the 60s to date, and then applied a warmer temp correction on the 2006 snowfall to today’s climate based on that trend. 

One one hand, 2006 wasn’t that long ago so the correction may not have been more than a degree or so. Otoh, linear trend by definition doesn’t account for nonlinearity nor any acceleration in warming. So like I said, I’d take the under on my own numbers. Could just have been 3” of slop instead of a foot+

13 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Meh second glance there’s no cold air really so would need a miracle track


.

Yeah, its over. Not enough cold air to make something happen outside of interier northern New England or maybe at 3,000+

Don’t worry, I’ll stick around for severe weather season!

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

I’m out of the loop, does the OP euro not exist anymore? Pivotal only has this new version, check this H5 look it has for 6z run




.

They discontinued the op and now consider the control run as the new op. The AIFS is their new AI-based model. Will be interesting to see how it performs. 

10 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

one-and-done MECS in February that melted quickly (would that be rain now?)... 

IAD got 8" (the best banding was to the east over Fairfax county through Columbia, MD) and I used two methods to figure what it would be today in a warmer climate. One still 8", and another drops it to 4-5".

I'd take the under on 8" though.

27 minutes ago, IronTy said:

It can't be any worse than this winter was.  So at least there's that.  

It absolutely can. 2022-23 is looking like a decent analog match. Nothing is off the table 

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Here's your -AO look:

I thought a Strong El Nino/Strong -QBO combo would do that.. we had a few Stratosphere warmings. The Pacific Ocean pattern kept North America warmer.. 

near total lack of cold air except siberia

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@Terpeast just a thought, sorry if you already know this…if you do go to the powder highway resorts Jan and early Feb are good (often Jan better than Feb) but I wouldn’t book in advance later.  First of all they typically get dumped reliably early in November, December and early January when the pac jet is further north.  They also aren’t high elevation and can start getting thaw freeze cycles in Feb and even in recent Nina’s it’s been warm at times out west too.  Plus sometimes in Feb as the pac jet relaxes some the storm cycles can start sliding south of them.
 

This is in contrast to the southern very high elevation resorts in Colorado where later is often better.  

I didn’t already know this. Good intel, thanks!

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Schweitzer, Redd, Revelstoke, Panorama and Sun Peaks are all on ikon. If my brother can get a whole week off next winter some combo of those would be my preferred trip. 
 

Southwest has flights to Spokane. 

Yep. I’m working on the reward points now, should be able to get the new member bonus that’ll probably pay for our flights. 

6 hours ago, katabatic said:

This sure has been one hell of an adventure. I don’t have power, I don’t have Internet although my phone still works thankfully. The snowblower that the condo uses to dig us out is broken and they don’t think we’re gonna get any back up until at least Monday. I estimate we’ve had about 7 feet with another 4 to 6 to come. If I don’t get out on Monday which is when my flight is, Tuesday and Wednesday we’re going to get another 2 feet.

Living vicariously through you, though l’m starting to think you got more than you bargained for. Hell of an adventure. You’re getting pummeled! Keep posting pics and hope you get power back soon. 

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Next year might be perfect to hit up the powder highway resorts in BC!  

That’s what I’m thinking! Fly to Spokane, link up with my bro, and drive up across the border

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I can see them moving over to the PDO since that's the one variable that hasn't changed yet.

The PDO isn’t the end all be all. It was solidly positive during 97-98.

Carver’s Gap in his TN forum said that we may be at the beginning of a -AO/-NAO cycle, but I thought we’d be going into an extended period of +NAO given where we are heading into the solar cycle the next 5-8 years or so.

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Depends what your goal is. If you just want to see the most snow during a dump then the Tahoe or Mammoth Lakes areas are best. But yes more expensive but for be the biggest issue is it’s also very windy which imo can make heavy snow less aesthetically pleasing.  but it also means everything closes including ski resorts. 
 

For me if I’m going out west I want to combine my snow chase with a ski trip. Jackson Hole is a nice town in a snowstorm.  Was in Revelstoke when they got like 20” over a few years back. Steamboat is the best Colorado ski town for a snowstorm where they get a lot of snow in town also. 
 

But honestly if you just want a snowstorm chase, at some point there will be a big snow in northern New England. If you like tracking the storm and using radar to pin down a heavy band during..that’s a better bet. Out west it’s all topography and radar is useless. 

If it were just me, I’d do a pure snow chase with a last minute drive up to new england the night before. 

But with the family, probably best to combine with something else like visiting family and/or a ski trip. Some stuff for kids to do, too.

Love Steamboat, but been there 3x. Feels like been there done that want something new.  

6 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I would think the safe bet would be Lake Tahoe LOL..... I would pick that area. 

Safe bet yes, and a very expensive one at that. If it’s possible to get a last minute deal at Tahoe, I’m all ears. 

otoh, I can go to Spokane for basically free using points, and if I chase to the cascades, it’ll probably be half the cost of Tahoe anyway

We’ll probably have to chase next year. I will be keeping an eye on where the best places are going to be.

A look ahead to the 2024-25 winter... not for our own backyards, but WHERE to travel and chase (and when):

New CanSIPs just came out, and it performed well on a smoothed/seasonal basis for this winter. It showed a wet first half, then a slightly drier second half, and a mostly warm CONUS with near normal/slightly BN southeast. 

So here's what it is showing for next winter now...

1) Moderate-strong La Nina, basinwide or even a little bit modoki. MJO should be active in the eastern IO through the MC (phases 3, 4, and 5). Negative PDO signature appears obvious, with that marine heatwave off Japan still ongoing and no signs of ceasing.

2) Standard La Nina h5 configuration enhanced by overall warming with a solid +AO/+NAO (or lack of blocking overall). Take away that -NAO block in December 2022 in the 2022-23 winter, then you'll get a good idea of what this winter is going to be like.

3) Again, a mostly warm CONUS just like this year, except the warmest anomalies are displaced south across New Mexico, Texas, and through the Tennessee Valley. (I wonder what raindancewx has to say about his backyard having the warmest anomalies). 

However, the west coast and Pacific Northwest are depicted to have near to slightly below normal temperatures.

4) Opposite to this winter, the south and southeast are depicted to be drier than normal. It would not surprise me if we got a hot and dry summer, with drought conditions redeveloping across the east. 

Wettest anomalies are shown over the Pacific Northwest, and with normal to slightly below normal temps, the mountains in that area could be the best places to chase.

My brother lives in Spokane, and they may be set for a great/historic winter next year. Seriously considering an extended two-week visit there, renting a car, staying with him for 4-5 days, then drive to Montana's rockies for a few days, then back. Or if the Cascades are about to get a big one, we could chase there instead.

Again, this is to show you where to plan your chases for next winter, not for snow in your backyards.

I don’t think we’re in a drought anymore, Will. 

I’m ready for sunny 60s/70s. Let’s see what severe weather season brings. Summer likely to be hotter and drier than the last few. 

41 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Another cold April upcoming?

What does your method say?

Really bad situation on i-80 in ferocious blizzard conditions. I hope they all come out of this ok. They’re on their own right now 

http://newtoreno.com/ca-i80-webcams-sodasprings-wb.htm