Terpeast

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hell of a Nino this has been lol. Ready to roll the dice with another Nina. 

I’m tempted to have something to say about that, but after getting called out for being “too depressing”, I’ll just say that I’m soaking it all in right now 

Just went sledding with my daughter. Surprisingly good and fast! Happy to have gotten just enough for it and the rest doesn’t really matter

4 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

One day we’ll see a cold smoke storm again. But yeesh it’s been a while. If our January storms hadn’t happened outside of prime daylight hours the burbs might be at 0” this year.

That second January storm was the closest thing to cold smoke imby. Temp never got above 28 if I remember correctly

Final depth measurement 1.5”, even though quite a bit has melted since it stopped snowing. Might have gotten 2” of total snowfall, but I went to bed after my first measurement. So, 1.5” goes into my log.

Still a beautiful wintry scene, I’ll make a coffee and enjoy it. 

Still snowing heavily, everything is covered including pavement. 

May reach 2” before all done and I can go back to sleep. Looks maybe sleddable

2 minutes ago, Mordecai said:

Slant stick measurement?

Didn’t take a pic of my measurement, but here’s the deck pic

1.5” and snowing. 32/31.8

Holding at 40, dews still 18-20. 

40/23

No more model analyzing from me as per y’all’s request. 

My final guess for mby - 3”

And sending good vibes with this. Good luck!

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

It might be time for you to go to bed and stop model watching. You're kinda depressing

Can’t deny the trends. I’m hoping for the best just as much as the next guy

I’ma gonna be awake. Wife thinks I’m crazy. I’ll try to be as quiet as I can because I don’t want to wake my daughter. 

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Everyone would have taken this a few days ago, when it looked like an inch or 2 was the likely outcome.

BUT NOW IT FUCKING SUCKS!

Euro can do some wonky shit approaching game time. I would trust the 3km NAM/GFS combo over this.

I do like this euro run, as well as the gfs. The CAMs are showing pretty different outcomes. It’ll all come down to banding, which I think is more likely to set up north near the m/d line

39/18. 

If I get rug pulled (which is increasingly likely) it won’t be because of temps

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

I read…maybe from terpeast that maybe having an insane hurricane season could be that changes everything

That wasn’t my idea, it was 40/70 benchmark

Maybe I was right to call out the north trend yesterday. Hopefully the good radar out west means still good qpf totals on the southern edge (which I hate to be in)

40 now, dropping fast. Dews still 15

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ll take my chances with this 

I’m right on the -9 line just inside the southern edge of the band

43/15 and falling

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Difference for MBY between 3k NAM and gfs is like 0.05” of precip? 

For me, it's 0.5 vs. 0.3. Big difference. Either way, 3-5" is a reasonable forecast, or 2-4" if being conservative.

Just now, Deck Pic said:

DCA falls to 33 at 2 am.  It would be nice to get some accumulation here before that. 

I don't think DC proper reaches freezing at all, but outside of the beltway good chance of that. Either way, if we're lucky enough to get sustained rates for more than two hours, we should be good

Just now, stormtracker said:

4-6 for everyone north of southern MD and that includes DC with some wiggle room to the south.  These are with the wonky ass SV maps, so use with caution

Going by QPF it's 0.45" for both IAD and DCA with a local max of 0.58" near Frederick

Sfc right at freezing at IAD

NAM sounding with heaviest precip over IAD. West of 15 and north of 70 stay at or below freezing, though.

NAM3k slightly colder based on wet bulb temps

4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Looks great to me. Love the purple in Loudoun 

Yeah, sticking with 2-4" for dc/balt, and N/W suburbs will make a run for the high end locally 5". No reason to change my first call despite the north trend (a lot of it is model noise)

I-95 and east looks like they'll have temp issues at the onset, but then the rates should overcome that. Then it's only a matter of how long that lasts. N&W will have a longer window of heavy rates with freezing temps allowing for more accumulation

I'm at 47 now, but dewpoint is 16