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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    I noticed the tick in slp too. If one camp is going to cave to the other, it will be within the day or so.
  2. Terpeast
    Just on the ensembles, 7 out of the last 9 gefs runs had the low track to our NW. Canadian too inconsistent to do a run by run trend analysis. Couldn’t check Euro because TT only goes out to 90h on off runs. i think this is another mirage as the block hasn’t yet established itself.
  3. Terpeast
    Yeah, even if gfs and euro splits the difference it’s not good enough for us. Maybe along the mountains and PA north in that case
  4. Terpeast
    Hopium take: gfs had a “bad” run yesterday and it’s still flushing it out
  5. Terpeast
    Oh I did
  6. Terpeast
    So to sum it up, the winter storm scenario is the unlikeliest one out of the three. Given how this winter went, the most likely is an early phase, W track, and rain. Maybe we’ll get something different for a change, but not holding my breath. Worth watching to see how this all plays out though.
  7. Terpeast
    Nice flakes coming down good, my daughter’s first Jebwalk. Awesome times
  8. Terpeast
    Light snow, pixie flakes, 37
  9. Terpeast
    Chuck was right about march 9-19 (so far). I pay attention to all of his posts…
  10. Terpeast
    Clouding up now. Already at 35 though. dp 22.
  11. Terpeast
    28, cirrus
  12. Terpeast
    At least the Euro now has the follow up wave. Before it did not. That’s something. Canadian is trying. Gfs is still alone on its snowy idea though.
  13. Terpeast
    78 imby for the high. Loved it. Felt like late May.
  14. Terpeast
    A 4th year nina has never happened before in recorded history. 850mb wind anomalies over tropical pacific are already regressing as per latest enso update, so that’s a good sign. But we won’t really know until June. And if we do get a nino, I’d hope for at least moderate strength to overcome the -pdo
  15. Terpeast
    Did you read the LA office AFD? Feels like something out of a movie
  16. Terpeast
    Oof, that didn’t pan out so well
  17. Terpeast
    Your analyses have been making a lot of sense these days. Nice work.
  18. Terpeast
    Does anyone have the enso prediction plots from this time a year ago?
  19. Terpeast
    Hopefully we get a lot of recurvers to churn those warm waters with little or no EC landfall
  20. Terpeast
    Even in a colder era, there were a few ratters like this one. It’s just happening more frequently now.
  21. Terpeast
    Usually when CAD events get closer in time, it usually trends stronger and then overperforms. But that was in the previous… um… “era” when we actually had near normal temps.
  22. Terpeast
    That’s the most surprising thing about this winter, imo. I fully expected a predominant cutter track but did not expect cold air to instantly vanish as soon as a wave creeped east of the rockies. Every single time.
  23. Terpeast
    Called it out a few days ago. It seemed physically impossible.
  24. Terpeast
    I do think we lost the neutrals (at least those that come after a nina) in this new base state. But I don't think we've lost the ninos, at least not yet. We should know by this time next year, for better or worse.
  25. Terpeast
    18x gfs hour 282, bowling ball cut off low cuts right through that 594 SE ridge like a hot knife through butter. Lol, yeah right
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