Does give you an indication of how we could “fail” (northern stream stronger/more confluence, blah, blah) around here. Do think a middle ground between the CMC and GFS is a good call right now. Gotta wait for the models to stop shifting.
From a cursory analysis this far out, grain of salt type stuff, L sitting over Great Lakes kills the storm on the CMC:
12Z GFS is further north so the storm can happen, although it's warm. That GLL needs to get the heck outta here for any chance.
I'm having trouble forgiving it for its "We're going to get 40" less than 12 hours before the event started". Must be tossed until proven otherwise... ha!
Agree. Being conservative is the right approach here. We've simply failed too many times to expect anything different.,
EDIT: I would love to be wrong about this.
I really don't understand this warm layer on the RGEM. With 700 and 850's warm, this explains why the RGEM is holding back on totals. This will be the time it gets it right. Where my 40" from a few weeks ago?