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Quasievil

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Everything posted by Quasievil

  1. Quasievil
    I'm not going to hold my breath on that as the MJO forecasts have been abysmal this year.
  2. Quasievil
    I believe that given this pattern that we're locked into, saying winter cancel is simply the wrong thing to do. Why? It never really started. Simply put, this winter with its +NAO and raging Pacific jet is a total disaster.
  3. Quasievil
    Yeah, I'm not sure how that helps us. Instead of a Lake Michigan runner, it's a Lake Erie runner.
  4. Quasievil
    15 of the 20 members whiff the Mid-Atlantic. I don't think it's that intriguing, more like Charlie Brown getting ready to kick and Lucy holding the football.
  5. Quasievil
    Looks like surface temp problems, as outlined by @LP08. 850's are a NW wind with temps well below freezing. And yeah, we're analyzing temperatures 6 days out. So what?
  6. Quasievil
    Agree. While tracking and learning is fun, it's beyond frustrating to analyze garbage that has no chance of verifying at all. It's been some winter.
  7. Quasievil
    Both the 12Z CMC and 12Z GFS have a taste of SOMETHING on the 9th. Looks like I95 is the dividing line for rain/snow but little reason to analyze that this far out. I guess it's something or maybe, I'm just a glutton for punishment.
  8. Quasievil
    Exactly. While slightly IMBY, I’m not seeing much to get excited about. Where’s the high pressure?
  9. Quasievil
    The LOW sitting over the Great Lakes on the CMC is all we need to know about next week right now. Truly turrible. To be fair, the GFS has a low about 250 miles off the coast of Maryland whereas the GEM has it sitting over Kentucky, same time frame. Guess it ain't over but it ain't good.
  10. Quasievil
    That's a true story. I'm just model watching and hoping something actually works out.
  11. Quasievil
    That was never a focus point. It's necessary to have that Lakes cutter to setup a 50/50 for the weekend event. (In theory) Fingers crossed it's still there. TT is only out to 204.
  12. Quasievil
    Believe me, totally agree. It's frustrating as hell right now.
  13. Quasievil
    As evidenced by us analyzing the ICON.
  14. Quasievil
    So true. It's been mocking our half-hearted optimism since this winter began. It's long range from last night DID show at least signs that it MIGHT believe in next weekend's possibility.
  15. Quasievil
    Trough placement sucks, not enough dig, barely negative, closest high pressure over Colorado. Meh and meh. Simply awful.
  16. Quasievil
    Seems more likely for early November.
  17. Quasievil
    Hilarious mid November fantasy snow. GFS is really going to kill it this year.
  18. Quasievil
    One assumes the rest of the 0z suite coming up will temper our enthusiasm but these few runs sure were fun!
  19. Quasievil
    The ICON has a wicked death band through Central MD. That's as far out as I can see but it definitely looks like it's going to change quicker than the NAM.
  20. Quasievil
    We're not saying it's right, just loving seeing it go nuts
  21. Quasievil
    You're right, my apologies. Forgot IMBY isn't the only location here.
  22. Quasievil
    It's not an official storm until we see a NAM panel look like this. Wow. Spectacular returns here.
  23. Quasievil
    Really outlines my issue with the FV3. Euro has 1-3" and the FV3 gives a foot. Whose right? That model had really struggled with snowfall output maps this winter. Scary as it becomes the GFS next month.
  24. Quasievil
    Couple of good reads for those waiting for the 0Z suite. Love the debate between the Euro and GFS. Here, Forbes discusses the FV3 which is due to go live on March 20th. https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/02/14/euro-vs-gfs-weather-model-wars-take-a-new-turn-in-march/#67706bff6c2b https://www.weather.gov/news/fv3
  25. Quasievil
    CMC sticks the low over OC for a rainstorm and the GooFus slides it off NC for a goose egg. Good God can we catch a break?
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