Agree. Being conservative is the right approach here. We've simply failed too many times to expect anything different.,
EDIT: I would love to be wrong about this.
I really don't understand this warm layer on the RGEM. With 700 and 850's warm, this explains why the RGEM is holding back on totals. This will be the time it gets it right. Where my 40" from a few weeks ago?
Good grief. If you like sleet, sure, it's great for DC, otherwise, it sucks. Kutchera shows like 0.1. That's a winner!
EDIT: However, I do feel like given how our storms this year have evolved, we can't dismiss this result. (As much as I'd like to)
I'll feel better when there are no more outliers.. .this year, an outlier has become the truth. Way too much model snow this year vs reality. Models have been overestimating precip all season.
Wow, the RGEM is something else. Low jumps to SC before starting its NE crawl. Primary dissolves over KY. Definitely far south of the GFS look and in line, at least with the primary, to the Euro. Not sure of the jump to SC is too far...TBD.