tamarack

Including here: genny kicked in at 7:28 - seemed a bit odd as winds here are modest, maybe G20. Had 1.2" of mostly IP (0.35" LE) but now it's moderate RA at near 32 but no accretion. Looked again at Isle Au Haut and they may get gusts to 80. Several other sites in the general area have G75 forecasts. Isle of Shoals was 48/57 kt at 7 AM.

CMP called in a number of crews from other states last weekend as they had something like 118k in the dark. Then CMP looked at the forecast and paid those crews to hang around until this event. Nice to finally see some intelligence back at CMP - they were heroes in the 1998 ice storm but zeroes in the past few years.

That Jan 2006 pattern certainly verified as awful in my area. That "winter" failed to have even a 6" snowfall - had not seen a winter w/o at least one 6"+ since 1967-68 in NNJ. It's all about location, as I certainly have no issue with the "great pattern" results, even if half of our snow disappears in the next 30 hours.

Isle Au Haut now forecast for Cat 1 gusts. Tonight Rain, mainly after 3am. Low around 40. Windy, with an east wind 15 to 25 mph increasing to 25 to 35 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Friday Rain, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. High near 51. Very windy, with an east wind 40 to 45 mph, with gusts as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Friday Night Rain likely before 1am, then a chance of rain and snow between 1am and 2am, then a chance of snow after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Very windy, with a southwest wind 30 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Breezy, with a southwest wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Christmas Day Scattered snow showers, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 31. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

About 9 AM last Saturday, with another 3-4" to come, finishing at 22". About as tall a stair railing stack as I've seen.

Also October 2017 in Maine. CMP had about 500k customers w/o power, 10% more than the during the 1998 ice storm, though that earlier event caused far more infrastructure damage and thus much greater delays in turning on the lights. Probably serving 50-100k more customers in '17 than 19 years earlier, too.

Since retention is a significant part of my winter opinions, having 89-90 rank 3rd of 13 adds to its memory. (#1 was 93-94, #2 86-87. 95-96 was snowiest, more than 30" above 2nd place, but the thaws pushed its SDDs to 5th. Also, getting only grazed, 3.7", by the Jan KU subtracts from that winter's satisfaction.)

Wasn't too scary in this area. I lived in Gardiner, Maine then, and we had 5 warning criteria snowstorms in Jan-Feb and the 2 months totaled 51.5". Jan was indeed mild, warmest by far of our 13 Januarys there while Feb was only 0.7° AN. The Farmington co-op had 55" in those 2 months, with a 16" storm in late Jan and a max pack of 36" in early Feb.

Will be windy at Isle Au Haut Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. East wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tonight Rain, mainly after 1am. Low around 39. Windy, with an east wind 20 to 25 mph increasing to 30 to 35 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Friday Rain, with thunderstorms also possible after 4pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 51. Very windy, with an east wind 40 to 45 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Friday Night Rain showers likely, possibly mixing with snow after midnight, then gradually ending. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Very windy, with a southwest wind 40 to 45 mph decreasing to 35 to 40 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Windy, with a southwest wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Saturday Night A chance of snow showers between 7pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Christmas Day Partly sunny, with a high near 31. Windy.

The 12/21-22/08 storm dumped 15.5" at singles/low teens, and is one of only 4 events to meet all the blizzard criteria in 24+ winters here. Had an interesting late evening drive to Farmington at the height of the storm, delivering my son to his graveyard shift at the westerly of the town's 2 Big Apples.

The 2020 megaGrinch dumped 2.68" RA here, most with temp +/-50, quickly extinguishing the 5" pack. The event brought the Sandy River above flood stage, with the 21,200 cfs the greatest flow since April 2005. The current SWE is at least twice that going into the 2020 deluge, so I hope much of the 15-16" cold pack survives Friday.

I don't know about that, but on Thanksgiving Day in 2005 (11/24), there was a confirmed EF1 in Phippsburg and EF0 in (I think) Georgetown, midcoast Maine, during advisory-level snow, 3.7" with low 20s temp at my place, 2-2.5" at the coast.

Softwood stands are somewhat less vulnerable than individual fir surrounded by leaf-off hardwoods, unless the wind gets exceptionally strong, and as you note, shorter trees have lower leverage for the wind to work on.

That winter was quite frustrating here even though it brought 125% of average snowfall. I experienced 4 winter storm warning events - one in SNJ - that verified at 1/8 (or less) of the bottom of the forecast range, ending with the GYX "Valentine's Day Massacre".

It actually was in late January of 1977. BUF snowfall was large but far less than recent LES episodes, but the wind gusted near hurricane force, and some semis were nearly covered in drifts. Much less dramatic in Fort Kent but a memorable storm anyway, though it brought a comparatively modest 11", 10 of which came 1-9 AM. At 9 PM on Jan 28 the temp was 12°. By 6 AM it had popped up to 26 and 3 hours later it was 6°, both the mild and cold in SN+. Wind gusts to 50 and visibility between 100' and 1/4 mile all of Jan 29.

The evergreens, starting with balsam fir, are much more vulnerable during the leaf-off season. That said, the NW gales generated by the 1962 New Year's Eve Bangor blizzard tipped a lot of NNJ trees from all-hardwood forests, including some large white oaks, a species with a tap root and thus usually more windfirm. No actual measurements to offer, but IMO there were gusts reaching 70 from late on 12/30 thru most of 12/31. Only the Nov 1950 Apps Gale compares with that event in my personal experience. 12/31/62 had temp 5/-8 at our place, chilly for NNJ, but we had not heard of quantifiable wind chill back then.

Van Buren, along the St. John River in Northern Maine, had 57/47 that day, 41° AN. The County didn't get the deluge of farther south, generally <1/2". Only reached 54 at my place but had 2.6" RA during the warmest part of the storm. That day had a greater AN departure at our place than any other day on our 24+ years here, 1° more than March 22, 2012, the summer-in-March time.

Neighbor (and snomo club groomer pilot) had to cut a number of fir carcasses out of a relatively short stretch of the trail by our woodlot. If we get the big wind Friday (we're usually somewhat sheltered here) he'll have to do it all over again.

GYX discussion this morning talked 2-3" RA with higher in spots, total disaster. The "bigger boat" (sic) thread notes possible shorter warm wedge for NNE, and more CAD, which is what my snowpack survives on. Still a Grinch but maybe not a 12/25/20 type GRINCH.

That's somewhat comforting though still a major Grinch incoming. Unless that 7-8 hour period includes 2"+ RA at near 50, our area will retain decent depth for a white Christmas.

One of the bigger busts here - forecast was 8-12" (which verified 12 miles SE at Belgrade Village) but we got 1". A relative living at the eastern edge of AUG had 15". IIRC, GYX had 18", their biggest snowfall until Feb 2013.

If you can find the info, it would be worth knowing whether the obs site has stayed at the same place throughout. I've spent many hours dissecting the data of the Farmington co-op, records back thru Jan 1893, and there was a significant change when the site was moved in Sept 1966 from the fully built-up section of the small (5k) town to a site 1.5 miles to the north, where houses are spaced apart and nearly all on the same road. The biggest change was summertime maxima - for instance, the co-op has recorded 14 days reaching 100+, but only one since the move: 101 on "Hot Saturday" in August 1975. The average temps have risen significantly during the current century but there is still a disproportional amount of warmth records, especially warm minima, set prior to that move to the north.

What a fir-fracturer that would be. Just the weekend snow put lots of the weaker fir onto the local snomo trails.

At last word, 88% of folks in Fryeburg are still w/o power - lots of trees on wires being cleared but it's slow going. Folks there must be a bit relieved that nights are in the 20s rather than near zero.

Up to 3" RA atop the current pack? Maybe "bigger boat" was the appropriate thread title after all.