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Everything posted by tamarack
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Perhaps Cheektowaga took cores while Snyder measured what was caught in containers. With 40-60 mph gusts, might make a difference.
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As a general statement, that's not even debatable IMO. Specific to, say NYC, I think that March 1888 took more lives in the city than did any hurricane. (Sandy is tops?) Maybe some extended heat wave would be the closest to that blizzard.
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Currently +4.5F here, will likely be +5 by month's end, with one or two +10 (or milder) days on 30-31. Only the 3rd December of 25 that failed to go below zero, unless we get some super radiational nights tonight or tomorrow night. Minima have been consistently above the forecast, as nighttime clouds do their thing. I think Aroostook will be even more AN than here.
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Comes from playing OL. I'm o of those, too, though I played 50 years before you. For TBlizz: As others have noted, NNE is different, and this month is a good example. Since mid-November I've had 5 RA events and one big snowfall. The month will finish about 5° AN and either 2nd or 3rd mildest (2015 will rule forever) of our 25 Decembers here. Yet we'll finish with nearly 125% of average snowfall even if the next 5 days adds nothing. Even with Friday's 3.25" deluge, there's still 12" at the stake and enough for the groomer to be working on the local club snomo trails. And I'm at 390' so no big elevational advantage.
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At noon, NYC was 12° and the coldest hourly reporting station in Maine was IZG at 15. Not often one sees that temp regime. Significant ice jam on the Sandy River, from the Farmington Falls bridge down 2-3 miles into New Sharon. 2nd smaller (~1 mi) jam in NS, above the quick water one sees from the Route 2 bridge and up to where Muddy Brook enters the river. Would be nice if those ran before the flow calmed down. Those jams are probably 3-4' thick and would remain, and increase, until the spring run.
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Reminds me of Jan 1985.
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Lost 4" but still have 12, and it's got a lot of meat. Fortunately, about 3/4 of the 2.84" RA (after 0.41" LE in SN/IP) came with temp 32-35. CAD was defeated about 1:30 and an hour later it was 46 with RA+ and gusts to 40 - had been light wind prior to 1:30. The 3.25" total precip is a top 10 for a calendar day here and easily takes Dec record, pushing the 'real' mega-Grinch (12/25/20) into 2nd place. Power off for just 2 hours, early yesterday morning. It's chilly today but our low of 12° is 5° milder than at NYC - not often to see that relationship.
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Power went off early yesterday morning and we thought our first long-term run of the generator had begun. That machine shut off, surprisingly, just 2 hours later and other than some blinks, we had power from then on. Wind gusts here probably topped out near 40, still 12" OG after 3.25", 7/8 of which was RA with several hours at 45-46°, after the SN/IP start. Morning low here 12°, one degree AN. Low at NYC: 7°, twenty degrees BN.
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Precip thru 4:45 here is 2.84", the first 0.41" in SN/IP/mush thru 7:30 this morning. CAD lasted to about 1:30, at which time the temp went from mid 30s to upper 40s in one hour and gusts into the 30s began, though no real screechers like others are having. That temp pegged at 48; it's still mild but if the instrument stays up there once the cooldown arrives, I'll know the sending unit's batteries got drowned as the NE side of our house has gotten a washing. Hopefully it didn't wreck the instrument. Given the upstream echoes, we might make a run at 4". It's already replaced 12/25/20 as the biggest calendar day precip event in December here, though our deep and cold pack has only dropped from 16" to 13" (so far).
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Pouring rain, light/moderate wind, 33-34° - CAD hanging in, though the RA+ ought to be breaking it down. Maybe it will be like our first December in Maine, 1973. In mid-month we had 4" SN followed by 2"+ RA in 15 hours with temps in the 30s. Then an hour of downpour and temp jumping to 56, while it was 15 and IP at our former home in NNJ and western CT had perhaps their worst ever ice storm ever.
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Only 1.2" sloppy IP, but nearly enough to slide my feet forward off the porch stairs - nasty (but now shoveled). Moderate RA at present with some RA+ incoming, temp still at 32 but no accretion. Power off since just before 7:30 though we're still in CAD-land with modest wind. However, light vehicles might be sliding just like my feet were, so maybe a crash Genny just turned off, so slightly under 2 hr running. Propane truck topped off our tanks (2 hundred gallon beasts, only 21 gallons used in a year) and at a gallon per running time, we're OK if/when this event kicks us to generator power again.
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Including here: genny kicked in at 7:28 - seemed a bit odd as winds here are modest, maybe G20. Had 1.2" of mostly IP (0.35" LE) but now it's moderate RA at near 32 but no accretion. Looked again at Isle Au Haut and they may get gusts to 80. Several other sites in the general area have G75 forecasts. Isle of Shoals was 48/57 kt at 7 AM.
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CMP called in a number of crews from other states last weekend as they had something like 118k in the dark. Then CMP looked at the forecast and paid those crews to hang around until this event. Nice to finally see some intelligence back at CMP - they were heroes in the 1998 ice storm but zeroes in the past few years.
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That Jan 2006 pattern certainly verified as awful in my area. That "winter" failed to have even a 6" snowfall - had not seen a winter w/o at least one 6"+ since 1967-68 in NNJ. It's all about location, as I certainly have no issue with the "great pattern" results, even if half of our snow disappears in the next 30 hours.
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Isle Au Haut now forecast for Cat 1 gusts. Tonight Rain, mainly after 3am. Low around 40. Windy, with an east wind 15 to 25 mph increasing to 25 to 35 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Friday Rain, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. High near 51. Very windy, with an east wind 40 to 45 mph, with gusts as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Friday Night Rain likely before 1am, then a chance of rain and snow between 1am and 2am, then a chance of snow after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Very windy, with a southwest wind 30 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Breezy, with a southwest wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Christmas Day Scattered snow showers, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 31. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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About 9 AM last Saturday, with another 3-4" to come, finishing at 22". About as tall a stair railing stack as I've seen.
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Also October 2017 in Maine. CMP had about 500k customers w/o power, 10% more than the during the 1998 ice storm, though that earlier event caused far more infrastructure damage and thus much greater delays in turning on the lights. Probably serving 50-100k more customers in '17 than 19 years earlier, too.
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Since retention is a significant part of my winter opinions, having 89-90 rank 3rd of 13 adds to its memory. (#1 was 93-94, #2 86-87. 95-96 was snowiest, more than 30" above 2nd place, but the thaws pushed its SDDs to 5th. Also, getting only grazed, 3.7", by the Jan KU subtracts from that winter's satisfaction.)
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Wasn't too scary in this area. I lived in Gardiner, Maine then, and we had 5 warning criteria snowstorms in Jan-Feb and the 2 months totaled 51.5". Jan was indeed mild, warmest by far of our 13 Januarys there while Feb was only 0.7° AN. The Farmington co-op had 55" in those 2 months, with a 16" storm in late Jan and a max pack of 36" in early Feb.