tamarack

Farther east: County: All Selected -- ME -- Androscoggin, ME Cumberland, ME Franklin, ME Kennebec, ME Knox, ME Lincoln, ME Oxford, ME Sagadahoc, ME Somerset, ME Waldo, ME York, ME -- NH -- Belknap, NH Carroll, NH Cheshire, NH Coos, NH Grafton, NH Hillsborough, NH Merrimack, NH Rockingham, NH Strafford, NH Sullivan, NH Location Snow Amount Potential Chance of Seeing More Snow Than Low End Snowfall Expected Snowfall High End Snowfall >=0.1" >=1" >=2" >=4" >=6" >=8" >=12" >=18" Portland, ME 0 <1 4 54% 43% 30% 12% 3% 1% 0% 0% Lewiston, ME 3 10 12 94% 92% 88% 78% 64% 46% 6% 0% Augusta, ME 4 10 11 96% 94% 91% 81% 66% 46% 3% 0% Farmington, ME 8 14 17 100% 100% 100% 98% 95% 88% 59% 9% Bath, ME 0 2 5 61% 50% 37% 16% 4% 1% 0% 0% Rockland, ME 0 <1 2 42% 27% 13% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% Manchester, NH 0 2 5 71% 60% 46% 21% 6% 1% 0% 0% Nashua, NH 0 <1 3 55% 37% 19% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% Concord, NH 2 8 9 91% 87% 82% 66% 46% 23% 0% 0% Portsmouth, NH 0 <1 1 44% 20% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Keene, NH 2 6 10 96% 94% 89% 73% 51% 27% 3% 0% Rochester, NH 0 6 8 83% 77% 70% 52% 31% 14% 1% 0% North Conway, NH 11 15 20 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 96% 79% 28% Laconia, NH 6 13 14 99% 98% 97% 93% 85% 72% 33% 0% Lebanon, NH 7 11 14 100% 100% 99% 98% 92% 80% 34% 1% Berlin, NH 9 13 19 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% 93% 66% 17% If this were to verify (and my town's forecast mirrors that for Farmington), it would be our biggest snowfall since March of 2018.

IIRC, there was a few days when the Euro and GFS would be slammer/OTS one run then OTS/slammer the next. One could get whiplash following the changes.

But the best storms have the sharp cutoff east of Matinicus (and still pound SR and the 'Loaf).

And it's pretty skinny even up there after several RA events, unless one can start above 1000'. Deepest depth on this morning's cocorahs was 3.5" at New Sweden. PQI was next with 2", all of which came from the retro.

Numbers from GYX - still lots of time for them to be scrambled. County: All Selected -- ME -- Androscoggin, ME Cumberland, ME Franklin, ME Kennebec, ME Knox, ME Lincoln, ME Oxford, ME Sagadahoc, ME Somerset, ME Waldo, ME York, ME -- NH -- Belknap, NH Carroll, NH Cheshire, NH Coos, NH Grafton, NH Hillsborough, NH Merrimack, NH Rockingham, NH Strafford, NH Sullivan, NH Location Snow Amount Potential Chance of Seeing More Snow Than Low End Snowfall Expected Snowfall High End Snowfall >=0.1" >=1" >=2" >=4" >=6" >=8" >=12" >=18" Portland, ME 0 0 1 47% 22% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Lewiston, ME 2 5 5 93% 87% 76% 37% 0% 0% 0% 0% Augusta, ME 2 5 5 97% 92% 82% 38% 0% 0% 0% 0% Farmington, ME 5 10 11 99% 98% 96% 89% 74% 52% 5% 0% Bath, ME 0 <1 <1 40% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Rockland, ME 0 <1 <1 22% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Manchester, NH 0 0 2 48% 31% 17% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% Nashua, NH 0 0 1 30% 12% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Concord, NH 0 3 5 83% 72% 57% 23% 4% 0% 0% 0% Portsmouth, NH 0 0 <1 12% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Keene, NH 1 3 7 96% 90% 79% 48% 22% 7% 0% 0% Rochester, NH 0 1 3 65% 48% 29% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% North Conway, NH 8 13 15 100% 100% 99% 97% 93% 83% 43% 0% Laconia, NH 2 3 7 99% 96% 87% 51% 20% 5% 0% 0% Lebanon, NH 4 7 10 100% 99% 98% 90% 68% 35% 1% 0% Berlin, NH 6 9 12 100% 100% 99% 95% 84% 63% 12% 0%

GYX has our area in the 8-12" color at present - the "90%/most-likely/10%" for Farmington is 5/10/11. N. Conway is tops on that list with 6/13/15. (The mix/RA isn't too far away - RKD number is 0/0/>0.1".)

Kinnelon, where I lived 1950-71, reported 2.5" to cocorahs, so they're a tenth ahead.

2.2" on 11/16, only 0.2" since then but also 4 RA events totaling 3.35". Getting out-snowed by NNJ.

Of course, it (whatever "it" is) arrives on Friday and may postpone our 1st (of 2) presentation of the Christmas cantata. Mixed feelings . . .

Took a few northern Maine deer with a top-loading 7x57 Mauser, but I prefer my current Remington 76 pump (.30-06) with the 4-shot clip. No shots at game this season - I think my best chance was spoiled when neighbor kids on their bikes spooked a deer that was getting close. Then my bout with anaplasmosis (plus arrival of nine guests - kids & grandkids) ended my season early on Thanksgiving week.

Cloudy and cold (max 21) here yesterday, with snow (zero) exactly as forecast. 2.5" at my old NNJ hometown puts them ahead of me for the season.

6.5 Creedmoor - going to be a "beanfield hunter" now, looking for those 500-yard shots?

Yesterday's 21/4 was the first true winter cold this season - my threshold is 50 HDDs. Still flake-free since the flurry/squall on Dec. 1, but my old NNJ hometown reported 2.5" this morning.

Saw a cocorahs report of 2.5" in Kinnelon.

Bare ground in the western Maine foothills.

In our area it was a meh 1st half of winter and a weenie's dream 2nd half. Both my (then) residence in Gardiner and the Farmington co-op had only patches OG in late January. Then we had 84" at our place from Jan 29 thru March 24, with 31" pack after the Superstorm (despite us getting "only" 10.3" from 1.70" LE thanks to a warm tongue producing gritty stuff). That 31" was the greatest depth in our 13 winters at Gardiner. Farmington recorded 97" in Feb/March and their "T" depth climbed to 56", tied (with 1971) for their 2nd greatest pack in the 82 winters with depth records. We'll watch SNE get some white stuff while we finally have some seasonal cold.

Maybe for frequency, but the bigger storms are in SNE (or up in The County). Three most recent winters, biggest snowfalls: Season BOS BDL ORH MBY 2019-20 7.1 12.0 17.0 10.3 2020-21 12.7 16.9 16.5 9.6 2021-22 23.8 7.2 14.7 12.4 Four cutters in 11 days. Is some suppression the next act?

Still forecasting at GYX, but hardly ever posting here.

When we lived in Fort Kent, those -30 and colder nights would set the drywall nails to popping. In more recent construction the drywall is fastened with screws, which probably reduces the percussion symphony.

Last time I saw a winter storm do that was 1/1/2010. It then camped and rotted over Sable Island for months and wrecked winter throughout Maine - the winter when BWI had 7" more than CAR.

My arthritic knees are long past skiing, but you've brought back memories of Glen Ellen, the only big mountain I've skied. Learned parallel there during a ridiculously cheap ski week package in Jan 1971 - lifts and daily lessons for 5 days, for 22.50, half their usual ski week price. Stayed at the "Bagatelle" in Waitsfield, bunks with mattress, bring your own bag, $3/night. Probably spent <$75 including gas from NNJ. I'd borrowed dad's camera and ran 2 rolls, only to find that the shutter had broken 7 pics into roll #1, so I "had" to go back in Jan '72 to get the pics. I still kick myself, gently, for not trying Upper FIS on the last run - steep, mogul-y but really wide with good snow and nobody else on it so I could've picked a back-and-forth line and counted coup at the bottom. The one trail I would never have tried was Scotch Mist, under the upper mountain lift - just as steep as FIS but about 1/5 the width and those steel obstacles down the middle. I don't think more than 2-3 skiers had run it during my 2nd visit, a Sat/Sun.

A shot in the dark: ORH 70 BOS 40 PVD 34 BDL 50 BDR 33 PSF 60 ALB 70. BVT 75 CON 58 PWM 53 CAR 120 KGINX 48 KRAY 58 KDIT 55 HUBB 70. DXR 44. NYC 27 TAN 45 GON 32 AUG 70 DRYSLOT 70 MITCH HOUSE 160 NEW SHARON 82

Did you find someone to record AUG snow? The AP stopped reporting i years ago. Edit: If Jeff, AUG and CAR all hit your targets, it would take a really weird pattern to keep my area under 100.

My dad was deferred due to his occupation, despite turning 25 on 1/1/42. As an electrical engineer for ITT, whatever he was doing at their Nutley, NJ facility must've been really important. I think it may have involved remote sensing.

Or 12 - he's only a few months younger than me.