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Everything posted by tamarack
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Had exactly 50 on Monday. Month's low was zero on the 1st. That 50° span is the lowest for any March here. (In contrast, March 2012 had a range of 90°, greatest I've recorded for any month, anywhere. Next is 87 in Jan 1979 at Fort Kent, with 40/-47.)
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3 weeks ago, I cored the (then 30" pack, finding 9.31" SWE for a 31% water content. Tuesday afternoon did it again; SWE down to 8.01" but with the pack down to 17" the water was up to 47%. Even if the 2 icy layers, about 2" total, had 75-80% water content, the remainder would still be over 40% and thus ripe. Hoping for not much RA on Saturday.
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Batting gloves with (faux) fur lining? Slept thru the CF but 0.7" meets my definition of SNSQ. Had to have finished with big flakes given the mottled snow surface. Only 0.03" LE and windy so what doesn't melt will sublimate.
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Global Average Temperature and the Propagation of Uncertainty
tamarack replied to bdgwx's topic in Climate Change
Only fringed in the NYC area. Central Park 0.5" with only 0.14" LE, EWR 3.1"/0.31" LE. -
Mid-Feb storm and equinox paste bomb totaled 40"+ at our NNJ place, where the average is +/-40". Latter storm was 24" even though it started as light RA.
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AN? Probably - most recent BN month here was Sept. Torch? - need the April definition of the term. 5° AN? Several days of 15°+ AN?
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Global Average Temperature and the Propagation of Uncertainty
tamarack replied to bdgwx's topic in Climate Change
Works for NYC, but not for the local long-term (1893-on) co-op. AN November temp, snowfall averages 94% of average. BN temp, 107%. May not be statistically significant as annual snow is quite variable (though not as variable as at NYC). -
Global Average Temperature and the Propagation of Uncertainty
tamarack replied to bdgwx's topic in Climate Change
Boston reigns alone! -
For 3 Maine sites - CAR, PWM, Farmington for which I've compared snowfall for ENSO status, the difference could hardly be different. 3-site averages: Strong, 116%, highest for any ENSO. Very Strong, 74%, lowest ENSO. CAR is slightly lower in a moderate Nino; otherwise, the highest/lowest fits for each site. you realize 2002-03 and 2009-10 were both borderline strong, right? the placement of the anomalies matters more, anyway. I would much rather have a strong Modoki instead of a weak-moderate east-based Nino Both winters killed our area with suppression, but the temps and precip could hardly have been more different. 2002-03 was very cold and driest of 25 winters here. 2009-10 was very mild and wettest of 25.
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Global Average Temperature and the Propagation of Uncertainty
tamarack replied to bdgwx's topic in Climate Change
I've found only 9 for BWI - may have missed one. PWM/BGR also have 9. 2/1899 1/1922 3/1942 2/1979 2/1983 1/1996 2/2003 2/2010 1/2016 #10: 2/9-10/2010, 19.5" -
Maybe like the flurry we had about 3:30; lasted for 5 minutes but even if it had been 25° at 5 AM it wouldn't have covered the ground.
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We've had scads of chickadees at the feeder all winter, along with downy and hairy woodpeckers, juncos and bluegluttons (jays). Since mid month we've had some sightings of male and female cardinals. Spring sightings (not at the feeder): one robin late last week, the barred owls are calling and downy/hairys are doing their "machine gun" pecking calls.
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A significant proportion of New England sites (perhaps other places as well) have PORs that began Augus 1, 1948. Touched 50 yesterday, first time since Nov 30. Clouds will keep temps to mid 40s today. Pack down to 17".
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Long Falls Dam had 238.5" in 1968-69, with 88.3" that Feb and 56.0" from the 4-day late month storm, Maine's greatest storm total on record. Eustis' top is 215.3" in 2000-01 with 64.6" in March, including 34.5" on 22-25th. I've found no useful data from Eustis for 1951 thru 1982 but they measured 39.2" in Nov 22-23, 1943.
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So the record is 210.1" - only Maine co-ops with more (that I've found) are Eustis and Long Falls Dam in Bigelow/Flagstaff country. (And sadly, both ceased reporting, 10/18 and 1/14, respectively. The loss of key Maine co-ops has become epidemic.)
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Not hardly. We're about 90 miles north of what I'd call south NNE (SFM) and low elev - 390'. Even 2010, our mildest Feb, March and April in 25 years (24 for Apr), couldn't get much green-up by 4/30. May 1-5 had highs 72 to 81 and that warmth jump-started things. However, be careful what you wish for. May 11-13 that year had lows 22/26/25 and nearly all the new growth was utterly smoked - even a few sugar maple leaves got toasted, first time I'd ever seen maples hurt by late frost. We were visiting family in NNJ during the amazing 90s run in mid-April of 1976. Feb-Mar had been substantially AN as well. When we headed north on that 96° Sunday, April 18, the leaves were far below half size and later species - oaks, for example - had barely started.
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3.0" from 0.41" LE, and so sticky that sweeping made immovable piles (unless I kicked it.) Trees are loaded, makes it harder to watch the deer walking down the groomer track. (But the brown really stands out.) Edit (after reading comments about radar): We had echoes, some decent looking, 3 PM on but no flakes until 7:30.
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Or a dozen. An ice circle 2 feet thick and 500 feet in diameter weighs about 10,000 tons - lots of inertia. Cutting a perfect circle with saw blades perfectly vertical is critical. My guess is that once the circle is marked on the ice, they chainsaw it twice an inch or 2 apart to ensure clearance.
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CAR's forecast for Fort Kent: Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 40. Light and variable wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Snow, mainly after midnight. Low around 27. Southeast wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Sunday Snow. High near 33. East wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Sunday Night Snow, mainly before 3am, then a chance of snow showers after 3am. Low around 27. East wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
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Slightly" is the right term. My 25year average is 88.5", and for 2016-23 it's 85.9". The difference is noise, and any further snow this season will mean less noise.
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Replaced by boredom. GYX forecast here for each day Mon-Thurs: High 42-44, low 23-25, partly/mostly sunny. About 1° AN, yay. And tomorrow night's disappearing accumulation continues; in 3 days we've gone from maybe 6+ to being on the 1-2/2-3 line. Otherwise, it's been a good snow season despite being the mildest met winter of 25 here. Will be the mildest DJFM, too, unless we suddenly get some subzero mornings. Might get some sub-20s but I doubt we see the temp <10° until next November. (Or December)
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Of course, that differs by location! 15-16 was the least snowy here in our 25 winters and it was even worse for NVT. 16-17 was near epic and Pi Day was one of only 4 blizz criteria events here. 17-18 and 18-19 were good, 19-20 was BN, saved from ratterdom by 22" post-equinox, 20-21 ratter, 21-22 near-ratter, 22-23 avg to good.
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Similar here but's still in the mid 30s.
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Your #2 is 3 feet below #1 and might be vulnerable. #2 here is 42" above my YTD (it's 00-01 so before your records) while #3 (16-17) is 31" ahead. 14-15 is in 4th place with 112.8" so if things break right, we might get there, but top 3 look out of reach - April 2007 isn't walking thru the door.
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Somewhat ironic that the northern (and mountain) Maine trails become more durable this time of year. Same goes for skid trails - this would be the time that skidder-chainsaw crews would work the cedar swamps. Break trails in the afternoon and next morning it's like driving on a gravel road.