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Everything posted by tamarack
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1.5" between 9 PM and - 1 AM? Total is 8.0" with 0.51" LE, 15.7-to-1 fluff. Now 28" at the stake, will probably settle 2-3" by this evening.
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Approaching 4" with moderate snow and mid 20s, should easily hit the 5-9 forecast, nicer than the recent bunch of underperformers.
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1/2" of 25:1 fluff at 7 AM, currently lgt SN with about 1". Latest P&C adds up to 5-9" but we remain in the advisory color. Farmington's "most likely" is 7" which is an inch below warning criteria in the foothills/mountains. NNJ town where I grew up reported 6", probably tripling (or more) their season total. Unfortunately, the grandkids in SNJ had only RA with maybe a few IP at the start.
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That was my ratio, too, but only 0.02 LE. Temps month have run in 3 streaks: 1-7 were all BN, avg 9° BN; 8-22 had only one BN day and averaged 11° AN; 23-27 thru today with its -12 low is running 13° BN and tomorrow's probable near-average will make the month's final 6 days about -11. Month should finish 1-1.5° AN.
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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat
tamarack replied to George001's topic in New England
We'll take high-end advisory - Farmington most likely is 6". Forecast is 4-8" where I grew up in NNJ, which would quintuple season snowfall there, but zero for the grandkids in SNJ - both storm and season. -
Only 0.4" here but it finished with nice dendrites that really sparkled this morning. Now at 65.3" which is an inch BN for season to date. The 22" dump in Dec pushed the yearly average to 88.6". Feb will finish well BN even if we get 6"+ tomorrow - currently at 9.8" while avg is 22 - but early March offers some good prospects.
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Forecast was for only 1", received about 1/4". Nine snow events this month and still <10" total
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Cloudy since 10 AM but subzero dews are eating anything that falls.
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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat
tamarack replied to George001's topic in New England
Maybe. In 2007-08 we had 12 such events that totaled 44". -
1973 was one of the weirdest storms I've experienced, a coastal that dove inland as it reached Maine. While much of western SNE was in the dark listening to trees being destroyed, and my parent in NNJ had light sleet and low teens, in BGR we had 3" rain and mid 50s. 98 wasn’t a big deal here I don’t think. (From Hubb Dave) That system had one of the most interesting south to north gradient: NYC area had moderate RA and 50s-60s. SNE had cold RA with 30s-low 40s. Southern Maine had a moderate ice storm and low 30s. Central Maine and inland Downeast had their worst ice storm on record, temps upper 20s. Foothills/Mountains had moderate ice and loads of IP, temps low-mid 20s. Aroostook had 5-6 days of modest (9:1) ratio SN, 18-27" total with temps from singles to low 20s. Our two-act snowfall was a double bust, mainly due to lack of qpf. Discussions had qpf at 0.5-0.75 for #1 and about half that for #2. We had 0.17" and 0.12" respectively, thus 2.5" from a 5-9 forecast and 1.3" from 2-4, for a total of 3.8" with combined forecast of 7-13. Consistent underperforming is not the pattern we prefer.
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My winter grades include temp and snow, with the latter double-weighted, plus some subjective (of course!) for things like retention. Assuming no accumulation between now and tomorrow evening, snowfall to date is precisely on the average, thus a C grade. However, the 22" dump in Dec is the 3rd biggest snowfall in our 25 years here and 5th place for all 50 years since moving to Maine, so that moves the snowfall grade to B. A 30" dump would make it an A even if there wasn't another flake this season. (That would make for a 107% snow season, which normally would rate only a C+.) The temp grade right now is F - DJM will eclipse 15-16 for warmest - but may go up a tick thanks to the frigid howler 3 weeks ago. Pack is running slightly AN so far and having a bit (1") of cover while the snow-loving grandkids were here over Thanksgiving is another plus. I think they've seen about 10 flakes this winter in SNJ, if that much.
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Afternoon max was 13-14" and it's down a couple from that, but the max will be the 24° from 9:01 last evening. 9 hours of occasional S-- since 7 AM has failed to produce measurable snow, but it picked up a tiny bit in the last few minutes. Radar makes the current echoes look more like a forerunner of the evening event than part of last night's snow.
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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat
tamarack replied to George001's topic in New England
Folks in Lake Wobegon. Overnight event was forecast for lesser amounts in southern Maine, more in central, but verified just the opposite. GXX afternoon discussion leans toward more snow for the southern half of its CWA for Tuesday as well, though the trend might move it right out of the state. 4 days out, so who knows? -
No, but earlier this week I heard the chickadees' phee-bee call, their spring song.
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Those 2 A's were actually nicer than usual up here, totaling 15.3", garden-variety WSW events. Of course, sites to south and east within 40 miles had 25-30 with verified blizzard criteria in both events. More common for A's are whiffs or fringes - the Jan 1996 KU brought 4" at our (then) home in Gardiner, while PWM had 10.2" and there was less than 1" at the New Sharon co-op. (But we usually clean up on B's.)
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Great pics. Last 2 days here have been wildlife-rich, with a dozen turkeys leaving tracks all around the house on Tuesday and 2 separate 8-deer groups yesterday. We'd been seeing a gang of four (deer) every 2-3 days since last month, but they were joined by another dozen. Our homey partridge appears almost daily in the yard or an apple tree, to keep the dog excited. Only 2.5" from 0.17" LE at 7 AM and maybe a tenth more since, far from the Act One forecast of 5-9. Significant qpf didn't make it as far north as expected. However, that bust did lift the season total to almost exactly the average, which is 63.3" thru today.
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Only 2.5" of 15:1 fluff by 7A, maybe a tenth since, and not worth starting the snowblower - will let this storm cover the ice and improve traction. Less than an inch 30 miles to our north - all forecasts showed lower qpf as one moved to the north, but the attenuation began farther south than expected. Discussions going into this included qpf of 0.75" to 1.25"; less than 0.20" so far. Temp is barely above 10° while grandkids (and transfer pups) in SNJ will enjoy ~70.
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"Only" 10 here - must've missed one - and only one RA and one with significant IP; the other 8 were all snow. Looks like our depth might peak in late Feb/early March, when it should.