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Everything posted by tamarack
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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat
tamarack replied to George001's topic in New England
Maybe. In 2007-08 we had 12 such events that totaled 44". -
1973 was one of the weirdest storms I've experienced, a coastal that dove inland as it reached Maine. While much of western SNE was in the dark listening to trees being destroyed, and my parent in NNJ had light sleet and low teens, in BGR we had 3" rain and mid 50s. 98 wasn’t a big deal here I don’t think. (From Hubb Dave) That system had one of the most interesting south to north gradient: NYC area had moderate RA and 50s-60s. SNE had cold RA with 30s-low 40s. Southern Maine had a moderate ice storm and low 30s. Central Maine and inland Downeast had their worst ice storm on record, temps upper 20s. Foothills/Mountains had moderate ice and loads of IP, temps low-mid 20s. Aroostook had 5-6 days of modest (9:1) ratio SN, 18-27" total with temps from singles to low 20s. Our two-act snowfall was a double bust, mainly due to lack of qpf. Discussions had qpf at 0.5-0.75 for #1 and about half that for #2. We had 0.17" and 0.12" respectively, thus 2.5" from a 5-9 forecast and 1.3" from 2-4, for a total of 3.8" with combined forecast of 7-13. Consistent underperforming is not the pattern we prefer.
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My winter grades include temp and snow, with the latter double-weighted, plus some subjective (of course!) for things like retention. Assuming no accumulation between now and tomorrow evening, snowfall to date is precisely on the average, thus a C grade. However, the 22" dump in Dec is the 3rd biggest snowfall in our 25 years here and 5th place for all 50 years since moving to Maine, so that moves the snowfall grade to B. A 30" dump would make it an A even if there wasn't another flake this season. (That would make for a 107% snow season, which normally would rate only a C+.) The temp grade right now is F - DJM will eclipse 15-16 for warmest - but may go up a tick thanks to the frigid howler 3 weeks ago. Pack is running slightly AN so far and having a bit (1") of cover while the snow-loving grandkids were here over Thanksgiving is another plus. I think they've seen about 10 flakes this winter in SNJ, if that much.
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Afternoon max was 13-14" and it's down a couple from that, but the max will be the 24° from 9:01 last evening. 9 hours of occasional S-- since 7 AM has failed to produce measurable snow, but it picked up a tiny bit in the last few minutes. Radar makes the current echoes look more like a forerunner of the evening event than part of last night's snow.
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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat
tamarack replied to George001's topic in New England
Folks in Lake Wobegon. Overnight event was forecast for lesser amounts in southern Maine, more in central, but verified just the opposite. GXX afternoon discussion leans toward more snow for the southern half of its CWA for Tuesday as well, though the trend might move it right out of the state. 4 days out, so who knows? -
No, but earlier this week I heard the chickadees' phee-bee call, their spring song.
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Those 2 A's were actually nicer than usual up here, totaling 15.3", garden-variety WSW events. Of course, sites to south and east within 40 miles had 25-30 with verified blizzard criteria in both events. More common for A's are whiffs or fringes - the Jan 1996 KU brought 4" at our (then) home in Gardiner, while PWM had 10.2" and there was less than 1" at the New Sharon co-op. (But we usually clean up on B's.)
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Great pics. Last 2 days here have been wildlife-rich, with a dozen turkeys leaving tracks all around the house on Tuesday and 2 separate 8-deer groups yesterday. We'd been seeing a gang of four (deer) every 2-3 days since last month, but they were joined by another dozen. Our homey partridge appears almost daily in the yard or an apple tree, to keep the dog excited. Only 2.5" from 0.17" LE at 7 AM and maybe a tenth more since, far from the Act One forecast of 5-9. Significant qpf didn't make it as far north as expected. However, that bust did lift the season total to almost exactly the average, which is 63.3" thru today.
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Only 2.5" of 15:1 fluff by 7A, maybe a tenth since, and not worth starting the snowblower - will let this storm cover the ice and improve traction. Less than an inch 30 miles to our north - all forecasts showed lower qpf as one moved to the north, but the attenuation began farther south than expected. Discussions going into this included qpf of 0.75" to 1.25"; less than 0.20" so far. Temp is barely above 10° while grandkids (and transfer pups) in SNJ will enjoy ~70.
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"Only" 10 here - must've missed one - and only one RA and one with significant IP; the other 8 were all snow. Looks like our depth might peak in late Feb/early March, when it should.
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Not much here from 2/25-26 but two 14" events in March: 6-7 and 15-16, with near-blizzard conditions on the 16th from backside NW gales under sunny skies. Late Feb-early March might be good enough to put this season close to the average. Except for south of PWM, Maine has fared better than most.
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P has a max of 15 for Thursday, which would make for the first "cold" snowfall - every event with 1"+ this season has come with temps mid 20s to near 32, usually closer to the latter. GYX discussion compared this setup to 2/4/22 and we had 12.4" from that one, also on a Wed-Fri though 90% came on the Thursday. Still 3 days out . . .
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23 years in NNJ, coldest was -14 3 years in BGR, coldest was -17 12 days in Fort Kent, coldest was -41
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Lots of foot-plus reports CAR north. PQI hit -18 this morning, we were about +5. There and in Western Maine have done quite well after a slow start. I'm 1" AN season to date, thanks mainly due to being in the jack area in mid-December. If there's no snow thru next Tuesday it will be 1" BN. That Northeast snowfall table had all but 3 stations far below normal - BGR is only slightly BN. I can't recall seeing such a wall-to-wall ratter in progress.
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We expected little from yesterday's system and got even less - 0.2" SN here. Western Maine except for the mountains got next to nothing. It's trailers north for the sledding crowd.
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With the burnout being on the 6th, that air was past New England by the 10th at the latest, unless the Ohio site continued to emit large amounts of material for another week or more. I find it interesting that many who immediately discount anything coming from authorities such as EPA are willing to fully believe whatever some anonymous stranger posts online.
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Nice! HUL was reporting ZR much of yesterday, maybe some siggy accretion?
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After the morning TS came 4.5 hours of essentially nothing. Very light snow started about 2:40 and looks to be about done, 0.1" new in 2 hours. We'll cope.