Dark Star

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

you folks are going to drive yourselves crazy trying to analyse which model is right and or will trend in whatever direction. IMO this comes down to a now casting event using radar trends starting tomorrow just like what happened during yesterdays storm. Only thing that is certain is the immediate metro will be frozen mainly snow. No model can determine exactly where the lightest and heaviest bands or dry slots will set up exactly.........

With a system this small, it is very difficult to pinpoint.  It seems that for every storm, most are hung up on models as the final word.  I used to enjoy when Jeff Berradelli used to give his post analysis on each storm and unravel each factor, stating that the "Devil Is In the Details", meaning most storms can be forecasted, if you choose which data is significant. In other words, in most instances, the information is there, you just have to find it.    Sometimes the positioning of a high pressure system, a "kicker" way across the continent, 850mb RH.  There are so many factors, but the key is to choose the right ones for each different scenario/storm.  That is not me, but I would suspect there are a chosen few who do see the full picture.  

49 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

sun angle is also higher. 

13 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

NYC averages 25-30 inches a year. This isn't Atlanta. What we've seen the last few winters is NOT the normal outcome.

Been around since 1959.  Snow around these parts ia always a miracle.  Rain/Snow line can come into play, even when it is below 20 degrees.

17 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Good thing is we don’t have monitor that closely. General 1-3” with areas of 3-5 that get under some heavier banding and have elevation. Will be interesting to see where that sets up but that’s for now casting. 

Banding?

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It's incredible how many all time records were set in this latest arctic blast (Allsnow referenced a few)! I will be honest I am happy to not have to worry about frozen pipes lol.

Out of curiosity, what caused the Arctic outbreak of the late 70s? A lot of all time cold records were set those years.

I understand how much further west Atlanta is from NYC, but they are still east of the Applachians, and a heckuva lot farther south than us to be colder than us. 

16 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Cold air in place and cant get a good storm.  What a sin.

I think we could of predicted this would be the outcome. What BS.

This is normally the outcome.  Snow around the NYC metro area is a miracle.  Without cold air, there really isn't much of a chance.  With cold air, it is a crapshoot.  Things have to align up almost perfectly. Too much development, not enough development, too late development, small swath dried up, near miss, locusts...

41 minutes ago, Cyg said:

Roads are an absolute mess in the Union county area. My sister said it's like they didn't even plow some of the roads and saw several accidents. Gonna be great once this all freezes up overnight...

Rule of thumb is they don't plow until we get at least 3 inches.  They plowed in Garwood twice in one week after 1 inch of snow.  

6 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Radar is really filling in now. Kudos to @Dark Star who called this at 7am.

Although, for all intents and purposes in central Union County NJ, it might as well have been over by 7 AM...

21 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Is it even reliable or accurate? I picture a hobo sticking a ruler on top of a trash can

Hey, that's my procedure!

2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Radar is really filling in now. Kudos to @Dark Star who called this at 7am.

I didn't call anything?  Perhaps I was linked to another post?

10 hours ago, psv88 said:

Canadian gives us a foot 

I wish I was in Canada then...

1 1/4" snow here in GarwoNJ) and the town plowed, after salting twice.  That's two separate OT for the taxpayers for 1" events.  Unprecedented.

28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

an inch here.  models way overdone even at 0z last night

It's only a bust if Central Park does not measure 1"

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It didn't even start

There is precip moving over us, just not reaching the ground.  It will take a while to break through...

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's going to be colder than last week

2-5 inches areawide

except the drier air is already eating away our totals...

18 hours ago, Dark Star said:

I was going by actual NWS forecast...

Only reached down to 24 degrees here in Garwood NJ, central Union County NJ.  Not a heat island.  More or less seasonable?

Some snow showers at the Buffalo Bills football stadium.  forecasts are for 8-12" tonight and then another 3-5" tomorrow?  What if they played at the regularly scheduled time of 1 PM today?

23 minutes ago, Cyg said:

Snow squall moving through here. Neat.

No squall here in Garwood, central Union County NJ.  Just some moderate flurries at best.  Radar showing rain, but we know how that goes...

45 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

I was going by actual NWS forecast...

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

 

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

 

I'm seeing upper teens?  Maybe single digits in the usual icebox spots?

5 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Had a few flurries just blow through. They say we could get up to an inch later today. If that does happen,  that will bring season total to only 12.5", leaving a long way to go to reach average. 

Seems that the closer to the coast (NYC and immediate suburbs) that it is "drying up"?

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I think that first storm was suppressed due to the confluence and overpowering -5 SD -AO. There really wasn’t much Arctic air around in Fenruary 2010. NYC only dropped to 17 which is pretty mild for February minimum temperature standards for us.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	3	0
2	2022	16	0
3	2021	17	0
4	2020	14	0
5	2019	11	0
6	2018	16	0
7	2017	19	0
8	2016	-1	0
9	2015	2	0
10	2014	9	0
11	2013	17	0
12	2012	20	0
13	2011	15	0
14	2010	17

 

NYC metro is almost always on the "border" of either out to sea or the rain snow line.  Without cold air, you really don't have any chance...

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Over in Milltown at the in-laws, cooling down for sure and still pretty nice wind gusts coming through. Excited for our modest arctic week considering where we’ve been for so long. 

Saying “I can’t wait for some snow this week” feels presumptive and desperate, so I’ll stop myself. But fingers crossed. 

I stand corrected.  I didn't think the cold air was going to advect down and across as quick as it did.  I'm surprised there is any cold air.  Kudos to those who stuck by the 10 day maps.  They have been foretelling cold air for over 2 years now, kicking the forecast down the proverbial road until the next 7-10 day period.  Cold came down Canada so fast.  I figured the Pacific air was going to "get stuck" in west central Canada for the rest of the winter.  Hopefully any subsequent warmups are short lived, at least for a while?

2 hours ago, MegaMike said:

I'm not sure why anyone would use AI to forecast the weather.

1) AI is a glorified analog so it won't perform well for anomalous events.

2) We don't know what's incorporated in AI models so we can't correct for known biases.

3) Why use AI when we already have trusted NWP models?

AI can be used to improve the accuracy of NWP output that have a known, and predictable bias though. For example, improving wind speed: < https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018JD029590 >.

Trusted models?  AI could be a good thing, especially when you can adjust for errors in the program say at day 3 and correct for biases.  Might improve long range patterns?  I would think the AI would correct for known biases, otherwise, why use AI?  I would think no model would handle an anomalous event well?  Or perhaps instead of AI, have human intervention adjusting at say, day 3 in a long range model to correct for a suspected error?

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

All time record winter cold daily high temps are going to be challenged in the center of the country with this outbreak (per TWC most records there were from the 70s). Definitely will be modified as it's pulled east by the cutter, however should at least put as below average for a while.

Sorry, I was responding to the comment by LibertyBell.  I replied with what I wanted, not what the recent progs are.