Dark Star

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

last winter is a F- this winter is simply an F

I think I got an F- in calculus once...

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

1821 bro ;-)

 

Notice the arrow through the head, kidding...

2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Today was one of those days with a big temperature difference between home and the Bronx. Still snow covered in Patterson this morning (but won't last today) to warmer Bronx with steadier rain. Fog overnight was fairly impressive up north. As we approach the midpoint of winter (Feb 3rd) and are past the midpoint of met winter, if this winter were one of my students, I'd be assigning a D so far. That said I see a grade max of a B- depending on February (would have to be a historic change to earn higher) and it is still highly possible winter ends up with a F on the report card.

I think I woud assign a D-, no matter if the rest of the winter fizzles.  For me, last winter gets an F?

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

That same year we had a major hurricane hit Manhattan directly lol

 

Pictures, please...

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Jan 25, 2000 what coulda been snow storm  Dry slotted

 

https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/25-Jan-00.html

There are lot of factors influencing a bust for a significant snowfall.  I think one of the hardest things to forecast is the dreaded dryslot.  You have a perfecty lined up intense storm, but becomes too intense that it sucks in dry air.  

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

That's why we just watch and see what happens .

Sounds like a commentary on the entire science of Meteorology?

1 hour ago, ag3 said:

 

Flipped to what? January will be above normal and only had 6-7 cold days.

We are +1.2 now with the rest of January very above normal.

I do stand corrected.  Based on what the actual temperatures were this side of the pole when the 10 day maps came out, I was highly skeptical that enough cold air came in to give us 10 days of winter.

11 minutes ago, Blue Dream said:

 A lot of people in this forum apparently have a crystal ball...interesting

C'mon, the term crystal ball is way outdated.  I depend on more modern technology, like what is pictured below...

18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Years with zero Dec snow do not bode well for a big snowfall winter.  Exceptions of course but as a rule what happens in Dec the winter will remember

If by the end of January the long range maps do not hint of any cold air, you can usually stick a fork in it.  

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

In spite of all this, the NYC-Long Island-NJ area was hit by a megahurricane sometime in the 1400s in the "pre Columbian era."

 

Sounds like the mega hurricane was likely due to global warming?

47 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Look at the end of the eps and other ensembles and roll that forward. Everything looks in line with the weeklies progression. Heck NYC may even get snow next Monday hah. Once we get to Feb 4-6 we’ll see a solid pattern on the LR ensembles for around mid month, we’ll be tracking something soon. Just gotta get through next 15-18 days


.

You mean until after the rest of the heart of winter?

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I have seen that dozens of times over the years and I cannot quite figure it out; it's like we are too far south for the NW storms, and too far north for the coastal ones. Could use one more decent band here. At least one made it....

Snow in these parts, "Is a miracle"

21 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Clouds thinning here in Linden NJ.

After a brief "thinning" some light "Stuff" beginning to fall...

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Flakes starting to fly here in Dyker Heights Brooklyn

Clouds thinning here in Linden NJ.

4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Surprised nobody posted the updated maps and advisories as the NWS-Philly finally dropped snowfall amounts considerably north of 195/276, dropped the warning for Monmouth and considered dropping the advisories for near/north of 80, but also expanded the warnings well down into SNJ, reflecting the shift in the snow axis the last day or so; NWS-NYC also dropped snowfall amounts some, but did retain their 2-3" advisories.  Like many of you, it's odd that it took this long.  The AFD from Mt. Holly is below.  

 

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
One area of low pressure is tracking eastward across Virginia early
this morning, while a stronger coastal low is lifting northeastward
off Cape Hatteras. Light snow is breaking out ahead and to the north
of the former low and that snow will quickly spread across our
region from west to east through 8 AM this morning. While the
snow is initially fighting some lower level dry air, and will
not begin really picking up in intensity until mid to late
morning, travel conditions during the morning commute will
become slick, especially on untreated roads. Leave early, or
telework if you can. Overall, the forecast looks on track; there
is some rain mixing in along portions of the NJ shore and
southern Delaware, but that was expected. Areas just inland are
all snow at the moment, and temperatures/dewpoints across the
area suggest that the cold air in place is as-advertised.

Aloft, an initial shortwave bringing vorticity advection with mid-
level forcing for the initial batch of snow heading in. This is also
supported by some weak lower-level isentropic lift, and aided by
diffluence farther aloft from the left-exit region of a strong upper-
level jet streak. That shortwave will pass by to our northeast this
afternoon, while the two areas of low pressure merge and intensify
well offshore. However, another more potent shortwave and vorticity
maximum will approach from the west this afternoon, with vorticity
and much colder air aloft phasing in from the upper-low over the
Great Lakes. As a result, a mid-level low will attempt to close off,
off the southern NJ coast this afternoon, after passing across the
Delmarva. That will support an inverted trough extending back from
the strengthening storm offshore. Frontogenetic forcing and lower-
level convergence associated with the low aloft and the surface
trough respectively will be the key for focusing steadier and
heavier snow today.

Since Thursday afternoon, the last couple runs of various model
guidance has made a distinct shift south with the axis of heavier
snow amounts, focusing the inverted trough extending westward from
Friday`s coastal low back closer to the Delaware coast rather than
southern NJ. The initial steadier snow may set-up near the urban
corridor from Trenton southwest later this morning. Much of the
guidance suggests that the steadier snow will focus more on southern
NJ into Delaware at it`s peak this afternoon, and linger there
longest as the coastal low pulls away, dragging the inverted trough
behind it. While higher snow ratios may make up the difference for a
bit less liquid equivalent precipitation along the northern edge of
the steadier snow, with the southerly shift in the guidance, we had
to lower amounts by an inch or two across the northern half of our
area.

Considered dropping Advisory around Morris and Sussex Co NJ, but
given some fairly rough conditions for the evening commute as colder
air work in, it can be justified from an impacts standpoint. Did
drop the Warning for Monmouth County, as amounts look to fall short
of the 6" threshold there. Considered dropping Bucks to an Advisory
as well, but amounts are near enough to 5" criteria to let it ride a
this point. Meanwhile, farther south along the NJ shore and into the
Delmarva, with winds expected to stay more northeasterly (rather
than SE as earlier models projected), any initial rain may shift
over to snow more quickly with less marine influence. Additionally,
the axis of stronger forcing shifted south there as well. Added Kent
County (both MD and DE) along with inland Atlantic and Cumberland
County NJ to the Winter Storm Warning. Latest snow amounts in the
warning area are somewhat marginal for reaching criteria, right
around 5". However, given the tendency for higher ratios, the
possibility that models are underdoing some mesoscale lifting
mechanisms (coastal convergence, low-level convergence along the
inverted trough, and mid-level frontogenesis), we expect some
localized amounts near or even over 6 inches. Sometimes we expect
too much accuracy from the model guidance QPF; it would only take
another `surprise` 0.10-0.20 inches to exceed snowfall amounts by a
few inches.

While the snow may have a tendency to linger into this evening right
where the inverted trough sets up, probably near Delaware Bay,
forcing aloft will start to quickly diminish and progressively drier
air will filter in. Just about all guidance suggests any last bit of
snow will push off the coast by 9 PM.

One of the best discussions I have ever come across...

50 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Also to give all the state workers PTO and overtime opportunities

I no longer believe the part about a State of Emergency means "automatic" funding.  I would assume you eventually have to prove lossess, hardships, spending, etc?  Declaring a State of Emergency for every raindrop, etc. is frivolous, irresponsible and has diminished and clouded the term "State of Emergency".  

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

maybe March instead?

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Agreed, full on strike out winters are not the norm north of 40 north. Maybe down by Richmond. I think we will make double digits this year though. We all know cpk often under measures so we really can’t use that as a baseline. 

NYC Snow:

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

you folks are going to drive yourselves crazy trying to analyse which model is right and or will trend in whatever direction. IMO this comes down to a now casting event using radar trends starting tomorrow just like what happened during yesterdays storm. Only thing that is certain is the immediate metro will be frozen mainly snow. No model can determine exactly where the lightest and heaviest bands or dry slots will set up exactly.........

With a system this small, it is very difficult to pinpoint.  It seems that for every storm, most are hung up on models as the final word.  I used to enjoy when Jeff Berradelli used to give his post analysis on each storm and unravel each factor, stating that the "Devil Is In the Details", meaning most storms can be forecasted, if you choose which data is significant. In other words, in most instances, the information is there, you just have to find it.    Sometimes the positioning of a high pressure system, a "kicker" way across the continent, 850mb RH.  There are so many factors, but the key is to choose the right ones for each different scenario/storm.  That is not me, but I would suspect there are a chosen few who do see the full picture.  

49 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

sun angle is also higher. 

13 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

NYC averages 25-30 inches a year. This isn't Atlanta. What we've seen the last few winters is NOT the normal outcome.

Been around since 1959.  Snow around these parts ia always a miracle.  Rain/Snow line can come into play, even when it is below 20 degrees.

17 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Good thing is we don’t have monitor that closely. General 1-3” with areas of 3-5 that get under some heavier banding and have elevation. Will be interesting to see where that sets up but that’s for now casting. 

Banding?

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It's incredible how many all time records were set in this latest arctic blast (Allsnow referenced a few)! I will be honest I am happy to not have to worry about frozen pipes lol.

Out of curiosity, what caused the Arctic outbreak of the late 70s? A lot of all time cold records were set those years.

I understand how much further west Atlanta is from NYC, but they are still east of the Applachians, and a heckuva lot farther south than us to be colder than us. 

16 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Cold air in place and cant get a good storm.  What a sin.

I think we could of predicted this would be the outcome. What BS.

This is normally the outcome.  Snow around the NYC metro area is a miracle.  Without cold air, there really isn't much of a chance.  With cold air, it is a crapshoot.  Things have to align up almost perfectly. Too much development, not enough development, too late development, small swath dried up, near miss, locusts...

41 minutes ago, Cyg said:

Roads are an absolute mess in the Union county area. My sister said it's like they didn't even plow some of the roads and saw several accidents. Gonna be great once this all freezes up overnight...

Rule of thumb is they don't plow until we get at least 3 inches.  They plowed in Garwood twice in one week after 1 inch of snow.