Dark Star

7 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

It'll be good to get some significant cold air in here for an extended period of time in mid January. Hopefully that will give the coast a better shot at a snowstorm. Looks encouraging. 

and where is the cold air coming from?  

8 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

exactly. the close the shades stuff is ridiculous with ensembles agreeing on a 2-3 sigma -NAO combined with an Alaskan ridge

Where is the arctic air?  So far, there is none this side of the north pole.

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Decadal RNA pattern we are currently in.

No real arctic air out west.  Coldest air is in a wedge north of Michigan, just West of Hudson Bay.  There is no continuous feed of arctic air this side of the north pole.  You don't need any models to see that.  just look at the real time physical data...

Just now, wishcast_hater said:

What do we have to do to get Tuesdays storm to form a low off the coast to rob the energy from the low pressure off to our west?


.

Not sure if I ever remember that happening.  Models have occasionally shown it, but never really happens?

32 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

No, or at least it's nuts to have MMU getting ~1", while5 miles east of there the NWS-NYC has areas of Essex County in a 3-4" swath.  

Elevation?

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

 

How so, with no true arctic air in Canada, except for maybe a small wedge of seasonable air along a narrow stretch just west of Hudson Bay?  I think if we start looking at the present physical data instead of the models, we might actually see what is happening?

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

06z gefs said it’s not 

GFS Ens looks like it says seasonable in NYC metro area, and warmer the farther north you go, therefore, no sustained cold air?

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Right if it was frigid and 20 degrees with suppression, we may be 22 now cause of GW and on the northern edge of the snowfall (think SE ridge help).

You need cold air.  For NYC you need moisture, cold air and luck for snow.  We can't have it both ways.

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Could work out a well, all those suppressed snowstorms of the past may be monster hits now. Also the records we have now are likely a combination of a normal warm pattern (decadal RNA now) and GW. If we get back into a general cooler pattern we can be in decent shape.

For me as long as we keep seeing NC, Virginia and the Delmarva get snowstorms like they have been over the past few years we have tread on the tires.

 

But surpressed why?  Because of a cold high?  That is normally one of the features you need, well placed.  Marginal "seasonable" air is not going to cut it, not around here...

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

It's too bad this next storm was JUST too far north, otherwise CPK had a good shot at an above average snowfall winter.

Winter Storm Chuck keeps mentioning we are in a decadal RNA pattern. Until that breaks we will need to keep relying on late Jan, February and March to produce.

I know Chuck stated decadal, however I think it usually lasts 2 to 3 decades (1970 through 1999), while PNA 1 to 2 decades (2000 through 2018).

We could very well be in an unprecedented climate.  I lived through the 70's and 80's, and had some mighty cold winters, very little snow. I would put little faith into previous patterns.  We haven't seen anything this extreme; including the general warming up of the northeast due to the weakening of the Labrador/Gulf Stream circulation...

Just for fun, I was trying to locate any "arctic" air in North America.  There appeals to be a pool of cold air north of Michigan and just west of Hudson Bay.  I don't know if these temperatures are normal for this time of year, ranging from -11 at Churchill and as cold as -36 north and west of there.  Then as you travel farther north, it begins to get warmer.  So we are cut off from the seepage of any true arctic air.  I believe from some of the extended models in December, we should start to see some true arctic air begin to plunge more or less down the eastern side of Canada.  Not sure if that is still the case?  If not, our area will be marginal at best, at least until February...

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Rule of thumb-you want the storm S and E 4-5 days out-the fact that this was in the sweet spot a few days ago was a red flag.   Almost always bumps N and W right up to go time.

Or more accurate models?  If the models "correct" north and west all the time, isn't it a problem with the models?  I wasn't expecting much from the beginning, since the air temperature was marginal, at best...

16 hours ago, forkyfork said:

my sister invited me to stay over sat night and her house is at 1k' in sussex county. good luck city slickers 

Can I come?  I won't eat much.  I promise not to bring my banjo...

Snow in these parts is a miracle, when it occurs.  It takes water vapor, cold air, and luck.  This coming weekend, we will have moisture, but marginal cold air.  I don't remember who posted, but they pointed out that the high pressure in the Atlantic reached all the way down to the Carribean.  I never noticed the effect this had on temperatures during a potential snow event, but all information is vital since the models are not that accurate 4-7 days out.  My feeling is that with a marginal cold air source, at best, NYC will likely break the "snow drought" streak, but only receive 1-2" of a slushy accumulation before a changeover.  However, I defer to the active professional forecasters on this site.  A perfect track and intensity could surprise us all.  

6 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

Even half of that, Im sure all of us would be happy with 3-6" , hopefully we hold and can break the streak

Then again, if it is going to change to rain, or melt within 24 hours, may as well keep the streak going?

39 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I agree with the need for objectivity and controlling of one’s emotions, this is a science discussion forum and too easily I see people jump down other’s throats for stating an opinion that runs contrary to their own desires, even if valid and supportable. That I genuinely dislike a lot, and I’m not just talking about our subforum here. I read all three major east forums. 

With that said, MJO is a weenie and lives for this stuff. I can’t and don’t fault him for that, it’s usually innocuous IMO. He can lash out at times but so do others, idk. We’re all here because we love weather and love snow. I enjoy his enthusiasm at times. 

I’m a true weenie too, I live for winter weather. I travel for winter weather, my wife and I spend our precious vacation time and money going to hike in cold places during the winter, the opposite of many. But I do try to keep my emotions checked at the door, because I respect this forum as a place for rational scientific debate and discussion. 

With that said, nobody’s perfect. I could just do without the personal attacks / mocking I see on AWX from time to time. In all cases, it’s uncalled for. Edit: And I’m not talking about the stuff that’s obviously just meant to be taken in jest and isn’t mean spirited. 

I am guilty of coveting your activities...

30 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what is your definition of "the coast" ?

 

Normally, Union and Middlesex Counties in NJ receive the same type of precip as mid town Manhattan (anticipated debate to follow)...

18 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

GEFS is south.

 

Bigger point is the way the surface high becomes one extended all the way to Bermuda. That’s a “too warm” problem for all densely populated locations along the coast. West is best.

Good point to consider.  Despite inaccuracy in all the models 6-7 days out, there are "clues" available that can aid in making a "highly probable" forecast even at this time.  However, I defer to the active meteorologists on this site to make those predictions...

52 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

This was a fun debate earlier in December.

Yes, I do recall.  I take it that prog was incorrect, just as the present progs are?

Persistence Forecast:    A forecast that the current weather condition will persist and that future weather will be the same as the present.  The persistence forecast is often used as a standard of comparison in measuring the degree of skill of forecasts prepared by other methods. The Subtropical Pacific Jet has persisted over the last few years.  Despite constant long-range signals for cold periods forecasted during the winter of 2022-23, they never materialized as each one was said “to be delayed”.  Presently, the arctic air is not even in the “Western Hemisphere”.  Unless this “monster/thing” of a beast in the Pacific subsides or is re-directed, I would not put any credence to any cold weather signals in the near future.  (This hypothesis does not necessarily represent the viewpoint of this blogger or of anyone on this site).

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes..... I have allergic attacks when my heat runs now.

No solutions.  I don't have allergies, but rather non-allergic rhinitis.  Kind of like a mini case of chronic fatigue syndrome, but nothing to that magnitude.  Who knows in your case?  If you know what you are allergic to, that could help, because then there may be injections you could take?  Maybe there is mold in the basement?  No doubt I have some in mine.  Put a dehumidifier down there, it helps a bit.  You may think about having you ducts cleaned, although I wonder about the completeness of the cleaning.  Some of us were born to suffer (but thankful that it is not worse).  I'm surprised that in 2023, there is no overall cure for sinus related maladies.  The only med that worked somewhat for me was Clarinex D, and most Rx plans do not cover it (over $300 a box).  I went through several sinus doctors and allergists, the last one told me to "Stop searching".

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave thoughts on the mjo? Looks like p3 to start January so hopefully some pna improvements after the cold dump in the west 

Interesting.  Originally there was to be no cold dump in the west from Canada, since the first Arctic air was supposed to seep over the pole into north eastern Canada.  Has this changed?

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like most of the rain is over?

Except for some lingering spotty drizzle?

33 minutes ago, North and West said:

There are two supernatural things I want to experience in my life, and it’s getting more concerning that it won’t occur in my life as I’m now past 40:

• A true White Christmas
• The Mets winning the World Series

I know what you’re thinking and you’re correct: Aliens will be landing in Midtown in broad daylight while being filmed by domestic and international press teams prior to those things happening.


.

Stranger things have happened.  I would put my money on the Mets before we have a "good" winter again (1 or 2 freak storms do not make a winter).  I disagree with the NWS's White Christmas definition.  If you have a foot of snow in your yard, it's a white Christmas.  

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

When we saw all the arctic air displaced to the other side of the pole in Eurasia, that was a dead giveaway that there were going to be major snow and ice cover issues in our source region. This isn’t just simply low snowcover and ice cover it’s record breaking low. I agree 100%. Without snowcover and ice, the air masses are going to be passing over bare ground and open waters and modifying. Extremely likely that the models are way overdoing the surface/boundary layer cold and will end up correcting warmer as we get closer in time. And the models are definitely going to struggle with the very fast split-flow

Absolutely true.  I remember a lot of warm winters, but it seems we were always on the wrong side of the trough and/or ridge; or a zonal flow.  But even in those years, there ALWAYS seemed to be arctic air trapped in Canada, never NO cold air anywhere between us and the north pole?

Another Festivus miracle!  Graupel and or sleet!  It wasn't really bouncing, so I assumed it was graupel?  Just as forecasted.