Dark Star

44 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

BUST

I am over critical, but I wouldn't call 5 degrees a bust...

49 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I'm in the low 90s. I thought it was supposed to be like 87 today?

Always bet on warmer than predicted...

On 6/28/2025 at 1:20 PM, LibertyBell said:

sucks no 1980 style continuous heat, but at least the peaks are higher this year (for us anyway).
 

Thank goodness.  At my age, sustained heat might be the final nail...

40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow I love this place, you're right near I-80 and the Delaware Water Gap??

Everything is so lush and green now!!

Milford PA to Smithfield Beach, just a few miles north of the Gap...

Friday was a perfect day for a paddle down the Delaware River.  3 Bald Eagle sightings (one atop the dead tree), and an unbelievable shad run.  You could see their white dorsal and tail fins breaking the surface like a shark...

1 minute ago, JerseyWx said:

No you're missing the point.  The UHI is why it was over 90 degrees after midnight in the city areas, where I was like 77 or so.

I'm in a "suburb" in Union County NJ, and it was near 90 around midnight.  I don't think anyone  on this board has any uncertainties about the urban heat island effect.

2 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Urban Heat Island effect??

Just the opposite.  I can't say the the Urban Heat Island effect was responsible for THI values over 100 for such a large area.

7 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

I can't imagine being above 90 as we approach midnight.  It's so crazy looking at Wundermap right now around Manhattan, Brooklyn, etc.  I've never experiened a phenomenon like that.  Textbook example of the UHI.

79 here.

UHI?  Mongo dunno.  I saw THI values up and down the entire east coast over 100 degrees...

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I think yesterday was worse because of higher dew points.  It feels very cool this morning.

38% relative humidity doesn't sound that high from Monday afternoon, but with the dew points at 70 degrees or higher is what we felt...

What a stark contrast between standing on my driveway vs. under a tree in 100 degree temperatures.  I wouldn't want to be working outside in either location.

2 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

How is this even possible?

I think it's from the buildup of a static charge in storm clouds?

33 minutes ago, Sundog said:

How far SW can it go. Just an epic bust on the models 

The models yes, but some sniffed it out.  Unfortunately, most did not have it in their official forecasts.  The NWS did highly consider it as a possibility in their discussion.  For most of us, it's just a "busted" forecast, but for those who ventured out into local waterways, it was another story.

31 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Upton still has BDR hitting 93-yet it's only 80 there right now....

If there was meteorological gambling, I would put $100 on EWR to hit 90 today...

58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think the geese would stay away if people didn't litter so much (same goes for rats).

Rats, yes, geese, this was their habitat...

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Incidentally, there's a major push in NYC and other large urban cities like Chicago, to greenify the city.  Because UHI has major health implications too.  The pledge is to make the city at least 30% green by 2030 and remove a lot of the concrete pollution where people live.  We're also seeing it with the push for rooftop gardens, urban farming, community gardens, etc.  So maybe greening the city will help control UHI and its health implications on people (while also cleaning the air, as more greenery means less air pollution and lower asthma rates too.)

 

and yet in the "suburbs", they continue to fill in the spaces between the spaces...

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

thinking it's fertilizer runoff.

Fertilizer can definitely increase the growth of algae, which some bloom has already shut down Spruce Run in western Jersey from swimming for the year.  Happens to that lake more so than others?

57 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

a couple of beaches on Long Island are closed because of elevated bacteria levels thanks to excessive rainfall and runoff from hazardous chemicals....

What does hazardous chemicals have to do with elevated bacteria levels, unless the "hazardous" chemicals are a food source for the bacteria, but I would be surprised if that growth would happen naturally.  More likely a washout from a wastewater treatment plant from a sudden storm or just from leaching out of local septic tanks and leach fields.

Hail here in Garwood about 5 minutes ago.  We sure could use this rain...

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder if space exploration will spur advancements in other areas, including climate and weather science (this has happened before.)  Perhaps this will encourage greater investment.  If we establish space colonies, weather prediction will become important on these worlds too

"The solar winds, keep comin' in"...

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Do you think at least partially transferring the NWS/NOAA functions to private ownership would help matters? Perhaps we can get a rich billionaire who cares about climate and weather to fund a supercomputing system sufficiently powerful to run 4dVar?

I'm being ironic, I don't think any of them care, but the funding has to come from somewhere and we have a few billionaires funding space trips so why not get them to invest in climate and weather too? Note how NASA has partnerships with these private space companies, maybe NWS and NOAA need to do the same thing?  Public funding only gets you so far and we are in the era when people want to spend less and save more, so maybe we are on the way to privatizing everything now and shifting the burden to those who can afford it....

 

Weather models are just not as sexy as space exploration.  Plus, if you achieve your goals in space, or landing on Mars, you can see your achievements.  Even if you improve the GFS, there are still other reliable models, so the increase in forecasting accuracy overall probably wouldn't be noticeable.  In the end, no real significant reward for the investment.

47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

a/c time!!

Dunno, humidity seemed to have dropped as the afternoon went on?

5 hours ago, MANDA said:

You can talk about temperatures but to be forecasting or expecting records and extremes 10 days out is not wise.

Extreme temperature forecast 7-10 days out seldom occurs.  Usually, the extremes temper out...

I think I may actually be seeing a shadow here in Garwood NJ???

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

https://community.netweather.tv/topic/69523-heat-bursts/

Sometimes known as heat flashes these are a pretty rare phenomenon. These have been well documented in the US and South Africa and are caused by either by a downburst of air from collapsing thunderstorms or from katabatic downsloping of hot air funneled and focussed through mountain valleys.

There are apocryphal reports of incredible heat bursts temperatures: 188F in Abadan, Iran, 158F near Lisbon, and 152F at Antalya, Turkey. The hottest certified heat burst temperature was 110F recorded at Kimberly, South Africa, during the passage of a thunderstorm.

The temperature rose from from 67F at 2100 to 110F at 2105 and then fell back to 67F by 2145.

Stumbled on this by chance in my archives

A letter by F. B. Parkinson of Madibi Mines in Kimberley South Africa

"At 9pm on the 20th September 1911, a thunder cloud approached from the west, bringing with it a squall of wind that caused the temperature to rise in a few minutes to 110F. By 9.45pm, it had fallen again to 67F which I expect the temperature before the squall. I do not think my thermometer responded quick enough to register the highest point but it is safe to say it rose 40F in 5 minutes."

Here's a recent one which occurred in Adelaide in early 2009:

"On the morning of January 29, an exceptional nocturnal heat event occurred in the northern suburbs of Adelaide around 3 a.m. Strong northwesterly winds mixed hot air aloft to the surface. At RAAF Edinburgh, the temperature rose to 107°F (41.7°C) at 3:04 am. Such an event appears to be without known precedent in southern Australia."

 

Not sure, but I think Iran is presently receiving unprecedented heat bursts...

So I guess a dry second half of Father's Day is out of the question?