Dark Star

8 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The wind from the wake low is reeking havoc here. Siding off houses etc.

 

I am humbled (yet again) by the term "Wake Low".  Seems I have been away from meteorology too long...

Just now, coastalplainsnowman said:

For a short time, definitely a teeny tiny frozen center in the precip pelting my windshield about 45 min ago.  

Thought it was just me.  I've been noticing that on my window in Linden, NJ all day.  Interesting, the temperature is in the 40s all the way to the southern point of Hudson Bay, yet in the mid 30s in the Catskills.  Based on that simplistic observation, I wonder if this WAS January, and there was actual REAL cold air to the north (unlike the past many winters), that this system couldn't potentially produce snow in the NYC metro area?

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Strong easterly jet ahead of secondary. Powerful winds near inversion.

What's not to get

The High Wind Wanring is one thing, the additional warning to stay in your basement and away from your windows almost sounds like it would be for a Tornado or Hurricane?

I'm sure the NY Mets organization contracts a meteorological company.  So what were they looking at yesterday?  Sure, the rain was going to slacken off a bit after 8 PM last night, but the game was scheduled for 7:05 PM.  Even if it stopped raining completely, there were going to be sporadic showers, after it rained all day.  I understand that they are playing an unbalanced scheduled, where they won't be playig Detroit again this season, but you must consider fans that are driving from 2.5 hours away (albeit 35 miles).  This isn't the first time this organization screwed the fans.  By noon, they should have at least issued a statement that any fan with tickets not coming to last night's game will be refunded (regardless if the game is played or not).  Instead, they held the ticket holders hostage, I guess to pay for their $30+ million dollar a year shortshop?  Disgraceful.  Do they refund the ridiculous parking fees?

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

ultra violet rays man, they can penetrate the skull....

 

(jk)

 

My hearing wasn't affected by the eclipse, just lost it, like my ability to make much sense these days...

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

People from NY are panicking for some reason in the other eclipse thread..... are the chances of clouds in the totality region getting higher?  Specifically talking about Syracuse and the area just north of there.

 

wow Lee Goldberg talking about cloud cover moving in for next Monday too-- but he said it looks like high clouds for now.

Just read that 33% of people are unaware that looking directly at the Eclipse can cause retinal damage.  In 1970, I dared to take a glimpse, after miserably failing at the pinhole through cardboard "scam" technique, and now I was diagnosed with a 20% hearing loss in one ear.

As of 4 PM, the Mets game is still on for a 7:05PM start.

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I've been saying this for years!  The first step towards geoengineering.

More recent coal mining removes the tops of the mountains...

Sometimes blending works, but is more of a cop out in my opinion.  A real forecaster must utilize instincts based on experience...

It almost thundered...

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That should be a really good trick with 50’s and 60’s

I would guess the probability is no different from any other year, despite the incredibly warm and lower snow totals this season to date?

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A lot of that period had to do with the very strong -AMO cycle we were in which resulted in ++NAO winters as @bluewave just wrote

Much of the time we would be below normal to normal temperatures.  Then, we would get a cutter, warm up for the storm, and then cool back down.  Rinse, repeat...

5 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Snow flurries here, 30. Evidence of sleet on the porch roof. 

I thought I heard something very faint landing on the roof earlier this morning...

5 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Not at this point it isn't. All it takes is a couple of tenths for my basement walls to start seeping again. When it rains an inch or more I suck 100s of gallons out with a shop vac over the next couple of days. We usually put a car in front of the house to make it easier to deal with the driveway but I can't because the mud is tenacious and I've been stuck several times now. The backyard is spongy and the garden is too wet to plant anything. #bringbackthedrought for a month or two  

But I'm jealous of your location...

35 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Pretty much the same here.  Daffodils are 95% in bloom, at least on the south side of the house.  Shady locations are lagging behind but still ahead of schedule.  Never have seen so much bird activity so early, that started almost 2 weeks ago.

Saw a flock of robins last month...

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like only scattered showers with the frontal passages over the next week or so. This will translate into below average rainfall with no very heavy rainfalls of several inches  expected. Then we shift back to a wetter pattern later in the month as it’s been tough to sustain any drier intervals since last summer.

 

I suppose wetter than normal is better than drier than normal, as longer as there is no excessive flooding?

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Well, maybe they do better with cloud cover forecasts?  Do you have any advance thoughts on what the cloud coverage might be like for Syracuse on April 8th for the total solar eclipse, Chris?

 

For that area and time period, climatology suggest a 70-80% cloud cover.

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO any airport is not an ideal environment for measuring snowfall or temperature - as for temperature why does Newark always come in much warmer especially in the summer with some of its readings ?

Newark is a heat island area.  While the airport not as much you would think, as it is away from the city, the blacktop and lack of trees do add to the warmth, even though the wether station is in a grassy area. 

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Don - scroll down to March/April 1982 on this link and as you can see the surface was mild 50's and a few days 60's in NYC much of March and early April leading up to the April Blizzard

New York City Weather in 1982 (extremeweatherwatch.com)

and that would be okay, as long as there was some cold air in northern New England or Southeast Canada.  Right now, it is seriously warm up there.

11 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

After what happened in April 1982 - I like to keep my options open..........anyone younger then 50 in here probably doesn't remember.....

Mr. G should remember.  I was filling in at CBS NY at the time and told Steve Deshler it looks like a major snowstorm for our area.  Mr. G laughed it off.

3 hours ago, Fresh cold air said:

Anyone that denies this is blind or in denial.  The question that I still have is that does seeing this kind of extreme for a decade mean that it is forever. I am not ready to declare that we cant return to some of the legendary winters of the distant past.  I know there are wildcards like a major volcanic eruption or even more substantial things like a shutdown of the atlantic current, etc but I am wondering if, whatever driver becomes responsible for it, we can return back to yesterday's climate.  Do we hit a peak and then start the decline downward for an extended time?  I truly believe there are still so many unknowns as to what will happen in the long term but as we currently stand, there is no way to deny what is presently occurring.  I think it all starts with cooling the oceans down!  The vast majority of this board wont be around by 2100 to see where we are at the turn of the century.  I know I ll be long gone lol!

I'll be gone, but most pundits are predicting doom by 2050.

Wow, negative digits in central and northern Quebec, but looks like it won't do us any good...

4 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

We are screwed if Senga is out for the year. Obviously having an ace at the top of the rotation is critical. Right now the hope is that he'll only miss the first month of the season, since it's a moderate strain. But you always have to worry about shoulder issues with pitchers, so who knows. Hopefully he won't have any setbacks as he's working his way back. 

If Senga only misses a month and pitches great the rest of the season, I think the Mets can compete for a playoff spot since having Diaz back at closer is a big boost. Of course that's a big IF though. Definitely worried about Senga. 

Before he even threw a pitch off the mound?  I say there was something wrong at the end of last year, which the team ignored and figured it would go away before next season?  Perhaps even if the Mets signed Snell and Montgomery, it wouldn't have mattered?

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave So much for that mid-late March “pattern change”. The PAC is not going to change at all, +WPO/+EPO as expected. Another mirage in the never ending series of long range mirages since November…

I was EXTREMELY skeptical of the brief cool down this February for the very same reasons...

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

What I find so fascinating about octopus though and their settlements on the sea floor and why I talk so much about them is because they show us there is a different way to a higher intelligence than the mammalian/avian warm blooded route.  These complex creatures are cold blooded invertebrates and yet they are so amazingly intelligent that it shows us that if intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe it may be in a form that we wouldn't even recognize at first if we somehow ran into it.

Parrots and ravens too-- the usual refrain about birds is because they have small heads they must be unintelligent-- and "bird brained"-- it's definitely not true.  Parrots and ravens actually have large complex brains and not all of it is in their heads-- birds' brains extend downward into their necks too.

 

I believe what fueled rapid brain development in these creatures is a high protein diet.  Ravens and octopi of course eat meat and parrots eat high protein nuts.  And a high intelligence was necessary for all these creatures; in the case of birds, it was originally to process their extreme visual acuity and later for socialization skills and in the case of the octopus to be able to escape predators while also catch prey in its challenging environment and was also later adopted for socialization.  All of the creatures I've mentioned are also known to make and use tools which also facilitated rapid brain development (it's a form of biofeedback, you need a complex brain to make tools and alter your environment but once you start doing that the mere act of doing that also makes for a more complex brain and higher intelligence.)

 

So you're saying I should have had a high protein diet in my early years?  A little late for that...