Dark Star

10 minutes ago, lee59 said:

How about the other night with 40-60mph winds in parts of the area and it was not forecast and I didn't even see any wind reports by the NWS.

It it's not reported, it never happened, therefore the forecast was accurate.  Just joking.  Normally, winds too often underperforming.  This was one of the events where they did over perform.  I think the models generally looks around 850, and forget things like friction to keep them from reaching all the way to the surface?

1 hour ago, weathermedic said:

Hearing of multiple rollover mva's in western Sullivan County with the snow squalls/showers.

MVA's?

32 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I never heard this before, super interesting!

Yeah Krakatau 1883 was an absolutely enormous eruption, over 3x larger than Pinatubo 1991. The amount of particulate matter and gas dispersing around the globe in the aftermath of that eruption would’ve been immense. The skies after were immortalized in various artwork from that period (“The Scream”).  

Cool, nice find!

I wonder what they were responding to?

Just reset the tarp on my firewood pile and found a few chunks of ice!!??  I know we had some colder nights, but to find ice in central Union County NJ in November?

21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Maybe I am mistaken, however I feel as though a lot of board members are traumatized from 4 of the last 5 winters, and perhaps even think that somehow the global weather pattern changed for good after 2018.

If anyone remembers the 80s and 90s, they will know that those patterns were just as bad, and yes we will eventually flip to a better pattern down the road. Who knows how many years but it will happen. 

We are talking about sustained warmth.  The 1980s had some pretty cold winters.  The arctic highs suppressed a lot of the storms south, so we didn't see a lot of snowstorms.  I fear we are either in a "stalled" pattern or a new norm.  And the warmth is magnified around these parts due to a weaker Labrador/Gulf Stream circulation?

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Same old story of recent years with a stronger SE ridge than forecast resulting in a further west storm track.

New run

 

Old run

 

 

Time to fix the program?

56 minutes ago, North and West said:

A lot of posters are very smart - much smarter than many of us here, including myself, when it comes to weather - but why always so negative?

I see that with my friends who are meteorologists and have postings/followings on Twitter… some other meteorologists seem to revel in why the other person is wrong or analyzing incorrectly.

Maybe it’s human nature?


.

What I find amazing is the interpretation of a right or wrong forecast.  IT's okay to be wrong, but it hurts like heck.  i do believe most weather events are predictable.  It's a matter of using the right tools at the right time (not this cowboy).  I used to love Jeff Beradelli's post analysis of a storm, especially ones that "underperformed" based on the general guidance.  He would always point out indicators as to why things didn't work out on a particular storm.  It was a very good learning tool (I know, I'm off on a tangent)...

Any concern for the latest sunspot activity, or was it just media hype?  Also, am I in the wrong sub forum for this?

The most gentlest 2 inches of rain ever?

On 11/20/2023 at 12:24 PM, Volcanic Winter said:

https://watchers.news/2023/11/20/major-eruption-at-ulawun-volcano-triggers-highest-alert-level-ash-reaches-15-km-50-000-feet-a-s-l-p-n-g/
 

Ulawun having a rather impressive sub-plinian burp apparently. It just did a VEI 4 a few years ago, so seems to be in a more active phase. With that said I don’t know tons about this specific volcano aside from it being a major SO2 emitter and on the Decade volcano list (supposedly the most dangerous volcanoes in the world, but I’ve always thought that list is very incomplete and with some questionable choices, likely based more on availability of funds / access for study than true risk - but Ulawun is a dangerous one). 
 

I’ll update if anything significant comes out of this. 
 

 

Substantial ash column. There’s only a bit of info at present but my very quick guesstimation would have this as a VEI 3, but depends on the duration and whatnot. 
 

Update: The ash column was revised up to 18km from 15, that’s pretty substantial. Still sub-plinian by technical classification (plinian is supposed to be 20km+), but a pretty powerful outburst. Info is still a bit sparse (I’m mainly curious about duration because that has the most impact on how big this eruption was, a small VEI 4 at the high side is perhaps plausible like Shiveluch earlier in the year). 

Since it is southern hemisphere, no real effect on our weather (regardless of heights/content)?

28 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

In Hillside at work, totally has that look / vibe like it’s about to snow.

If only, but let’s get it done this year gentlemen. 

Looksd like virga (snow) over western Jersey?

Cold Air Advection sounds too formal (especially for "cooler than normal" temperatures)?

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Ridge keeps rebuilding in the west with more of a Nino look going forward with the split flow 

Hate those split flows.

On 11/15/2023 at 10:14 AM, rclab said:

 

‘Indeed’ ……. As always …….

 

I think they left out cows?

3 hours ago, North and West said:

DING

One would think 5-10 "general" forecasts (warmer, colder, drier, wetter) should be achievable?  Is it that the models just weren't designed to deal with the persisten Pacific jet?

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 80s were known for the big 3. Historic April 82 blizzard that still stands as our greatest late season blizzard. The famous February 83 snowstorm. Then the surprise January 87 snowstorm that was supposed to quickly change to rain but dropped near 10” on Long Island. You could also add the surprise December 88 Norlun that dropped around  10” on Long Island. But the snow band was so narrow that Western Suffolk had close to 12” and Long Beach got nothing. So it was too limited in coverage for me to add to my big 3 list. 

I vaguely yremember the April 82 Snowstorm.  What I remember most about it was filling in for George Cullen at CBS NY Weather.  I made an awful gaff for predicting a daytime temperature for the city of Chicago that Steve Deshler was not happy about.  However, I noticed the LFM picking up the snowstorm.  Irv Gikofsky laughed at my analysis.  

On 10/29/2023 at 11:57 AM, Maureen said:

Vaguely!

Before Superstorm Sandy, I always remember somebody turning the heat switch off right after Labor Day...

The  average Atlantic hurricane season spawns 5.9 canes, this year we got 7 to date.

The average major hurricanes is 3,  and we have received 3 to date.  

So even though the water has been warmer, it looks like we are going to wind up slightly above average?  Unless that is, that the warmer water extends the season?

On 11/10/2023 at 6:26 AM, MJO812 said:

Autumn is usually boring 

But can get some nice weather...

Faint Aurora Borealis in Sussex County NJ last night?  Is this normal, or was there some recent solar activity?

Hurrican season ending soon.  NOAA increased their original forecast for the number of storms based on the water temperature.  I wonder what the latest tally is vs. the number of storms predicted?

6 minutes ago, North and West said:

Don't we usually wait until Thanksgiving to cancel winter? 

Depends what the tea leaves read...

22 hours ago, psv88 said:

I moved the snowblower to the front of the garage today in preparation for winter. Probably just jinxed us again. 
 

sorry people 

I no longer bother.

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Lol yea.

 

 

Is it possible they already had a killing frost?  Then again, it seems warmer the farther north you go sometimes, lately?

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some sunrise photos. Lots of clouds but warm.

Baba Bouy?