Dark Star

This particular discussion is only about Manhattan, specifically Central Park (despite its notorious poor snow depth reportings). My interpretation is the storm was a bust. Some could argue, in a broad sense, that the storm was not a bust. Strangely, all models came on board about 5 days ago that this would be an all snow event. After 2 days in a row reaching the 40s (or more), the temperature miraculously cooled down just before the clipper like system was to arrive (cold air being one of the ingredients for snow). The only thing peculiar was that the main dynamics of the storm would be north and east of Manhattan. Historically, this is not a good recipe for an all snow event. However, I was optimistic for a good snowfall, based on the model consensus. EVERYBODY, or so it seemed, was saying that Central Park was going to receive a significant snowfall. I had not seen one of the models 00z run on 12/26/2025, which depicted a lighter amount. Instead, I was noticing throughout the day on Friday, that after the overcast became solid, had begun thinning, and pretty much cleared at times, in advance of the storm. Based on experience, 98 times out of 100, if the overcast breaks or the sun becomes visible hours before the storm, it will be a bust. With the 2 out of the last 100 times occuring within the last 10 years. You can use that information for now casting. For now casting, you can pretty much ignore the models and start going on instinct and various real time indicators on what is actually occurring. This system will be discussed and argued, many arguing over semantics or defintion. Some have already said that this system "dry slotted". I will disagree. To me, a dry slot occurs when a storm occludes, becomes intense and mature, and forms the standard comma shape. The intensity of the storm draws in dry air from hundreds of miles away. This was not the case. One of the key ingredients for snow, cold air" was advecting into the system ahead of the storm. Cold air, as we know, is drier. The dynamics of the system was not as intense in this area. Again, the main dynamics were to remain north and east of Manhattan. Some warned of a "warm nose" that would cut down on snow totals. Though not wrong, if the dyamics were as the models depicted, the warm nose most likely would not have changed the snow to sleet, or rain. The fact is, the precipitation stopped at times after an intial light covering of snow. With very little lift, virtually no dynamic atmospheric cooling. Present HRRR suggests some "back building" of snow into the area, at least through mid morning. This could bring Central Park nearer to the lower end of the 4" to 8" range, which some will say that the forecasts were accurate. I disagree. The dynamics of the storm that were forecast simply missed Manhattan.

The system is weaker, which is why we saw several breaks of sun during the day. 90% of the time, when it become overcast, and sun breaks through, it is the kiss of death. Didn't say anything earlier, didn't want the weenie tag. Also, the center of the storm is north. Maybe see some moderate snow as more consistent precip moves our way?

Changed to sleet here in Garwood, central Union County NJ. Tell me its because of the light precipitation and not that the atmosphere is warming at upper levels...

Nary a flurry in Garwood, central Union county NJ. Feels cold at 29 degrees.

Hard to say where influences come from. Some could be inherent within one's self. For example,my affinity for bluegrass could have come from the Beverly Hillbillies or Andy Griffith. Check out the weather maps from the 1964 Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer. Isobars, pressure systems, almost subliminal. By 10 years old, I had my own Weather board.

Thanks. Retired already.

My new neighborhood have some wild hills, right outside my door on the street. And since I doubt they salt and plow like we do, I may sleigh all the way down and into the lake.

Yeah, most long range forecasts, after the previous snow, said no more chances until after New Years...

Maybe my last snowman. Not bad fer 1" of snow. Moving to Morristown Tennessee in the spring...

Just about 1" in Garwood, maybe 0.9". Snowing very lightly atm...

Very light covering in Garwood (central Union County NJ) except the streets are mainly wet. Precip changed to a very light snain, but as intensity has increased, it has changed back to all snow.

Is this the earliest we cancelled winter?

The line fell apart and was nothing more than a drizzle here in Central Union county, NJ. Winds are relatively light, though were stronger around 6:45 AM.

The town of Cranford NJ still had huge leaf piles plowed into the snow. Hopefully this doesn't cause more flooding than usual...

So, snow squall warnings have been in effect since 2023. I don't recall any issued for 20 miles around NYC. I would hate to see any issued for this particular area. While we have seen squalls laying a quick coating, I would be bold enough to say it would be nothing like what the warning was intended for, for severe squalls coming off the lakes. However, it seems these things are relative. To me, an actual snow squall creates true whiteout conditions, where you can't see 10 car lengths ahead of you, and/or snows a few inches in a matter of minutes. NYC immediate metro will probably never see one of these. The ferocity almost always wanes as it passes the Appalachians and then the Watchungs. Areas like White Plains or NW Jersey may have seen something like that. Peopel will rationalize, "well if it warns people of an impending light squall, people will be better prepared and perhaps avoid traveling at that time", then it is okay to issue the warning, no matter how minimal it is. I just don't want to see it issued here. Most of us have never experienced TRUE whiteout conditions. I couldn't imagine not being able to see my hand outstretched in front of me because of snow. - Crochety Old Fart -

Looks like it's making its way here anyway, just saw some flurries...

Cloudy here, but looks like they dry up as it moves east?

Models picked up on this storm many days out. I wonder which was the first and/or most accurate model to sniff this out?

Looks like 5.5" is the final tally for Garwood NJ.

It didn't stick to the streets here in suburban Union county NJ, either, right away. It was too warm out at the beginning...

4.5" here in Garwood (central Union County NJ), so far. Very delighted.

Great to hear. I have no idea what effect next week's' warming trend will have on that thickness?

Actually there was a break in the radar with main batch about 40 miles still to the west?

While I am witnessing the urbanization of suburbia (central Union County, NJ) I am still under the impression that the temperature increases are more due to the effects from the GulfStream/Labrador current. It has been discussed here in the past.