HKY_WX

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Radar velocities on this one are insane. Likely going to be some high gusts recorded

Most underhyped major cane I can recall. At least when it comes to this board and some of the weenie crowds. It's usually the opposite.

Some of the radar hallucinations are due to attenuation.

Destin over towards Miramar Beach are going to take the brunt of this one. The location of the landfall along with the direction of the coastline will funnel a lot of water into those areas.

I agree with the portion that points out the forward motion direction (NNE) aligning with the shear vector reducing its impact on the system. Sure, it may eliminate any chance of strengthening, but a massive drop in strength prior to landfall looks pretty unlikely at this point.

Google DM brings this in around 7 to 8PM. Majority of the models have the pressure bottoming out around 1PM. That give us about a 6 hour window to weaken before landfall. Not much time there to work with at all. Better hope it doesn't strengthen much more this Morning.

This is a pretty insane -NAO signal day 10. This would displace the mean pattern further south eventually. You would think it could lend itself to one of those classic late winter UL bowling ball snowstorms at some point in late February/March if we're lucky.

12 here this Morning and my backyard is still snow covered for the 15th day in a row. Seems like just another day this winter. Pretty wild.

The models giveth and the models taketh away... I think there could still be some hope for the last week of February into March. Still early to be calling Winter at this point. That said, I'm going to enjoy the thaw. It's been a fun few months of Winter but my body needs a break. Also i'm tired of trying to entertain a 5 year old indoors.

Kinda graupel like

Snowing here west of Franklinton

AI Euro is showing what i was referring to. Roll over ridges out west normally teleconnect to an eastern US trough. The models this far out are normally pretty worthless, so take with caution.

It wasn't that bad up here in central Franklin. We had an 1" back in December, 1.5" sleet, and then 5 inches last weekend. So i guess a total of around 7". Better than the last few winters. We definitely missed out on 2 historic opportunities though. Could have been much better, which is what leaves a bit of a bitter taste on this winter thus far. That said, we still have about 5 (maybe 6) weeks left where we can realistically get something, but the extended modes aren't overly exciting at this point. They have overpredicted the collapse of the -NAO/AO all year though, so I haven't completely given up hope.

There are some hints of a roll-over ridge and a return of the +PNA towards the last week of February. Don't see much in the way of winter related action prior to that. Enjoy the thaw next week for now.