WxKnurd
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Everything posted by WxKnurd
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2019 Mountains and Foothills Spring/Summer thread
WxKnurd replied to FlatLander48's topic in Southeastern States
Nothing beats fishing mountain rivers and streams. I’ve been having good luck on Fontana past couple times I’ve been out there. Think I’ll check out some of the other lakes this week while I’m home and off work. -
2019 Mountains and Foothills Spring/Summer thread
WxKnurd replied to FlatLander48's topic in Southeastern States
Wife sent a video of the snow at our house, so it’s made it down to 3350’. -
Officially a resident of Haywood County. Always said I’d have a log home in the mountains one day and am proud to say I’m a log homeowner at 3350’ now, hard work still gets you what you want!
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Is it bad I am taking into account elevation and winter weather prospects when we head to look at houses in Haywood County tomorrow? I didn’t think so either...
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I’ve fared a little better here NW of town but have had higher totals all around me since building over here 7 years ago. Always something whether anemic rates, tiny flake size, sleet, etc. Kills me as growing up in northern Catawba County always put me on the good size of these kind of storms. Wife wants to move back home to somewhere around Asheville so hopefully this time next year I’ll be posting from 3000+ feet.
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Colder look makes sense if you look at current conditions, the high pressure back around the Lakes is 1038, 850’s are good, 925 looking good.
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Spruce Pine could be do able, I know once you get to Burnsville Hwy 19 is 4 lane limited access all the way to 26.
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Looks like it actually ticked up about .4", from 4.21" and plumes done snowing at 15 compared to 4.61" and some plumes still snowing. HKY went from 11.98" to 9.73" but again, more plumes showing it still showing it snowing.
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Then that makes the other maps that were confusing us when compared with the current forecasted amount map make sense now, probably also automated via WPC suite.
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Oh I agree, just pointing out that the expected map makes no sense when you factor in all the other product maps they put out with it. And that’s the only reasoning I could think of, which makes sense when you look at the disco about QPF and sleet SW of Asheville. Seems like their reasoning is banks on snow being rate driven given the thermal profile.
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Just scrolled through their maps, the high end matches up with model output but then when you look at expected and then scroll through the “% of x inches”, it makes no sense why they went with what they did. only thing I can figure is they see this mainly a CAD region storm in regards to snow as the ice accumulation map is highest SW of Asheville.
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Yes and INT is the code for Winston’s airport.
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HKY mean for SREF plumes was right at 12”, CLT was touch over 4”. Both had a total QPF a touch a few hundredths over 2”. But the sref burned us last year even up to go time, plus it’s at the long-range time period of this short range model.
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Yes, you want the 850 Low to track to your south.
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Could also aid moisture transport (not that it’s really needed in this setup) if you have a positive tilt to it. But those things are a nowcast issue.
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The crusher of hopes and dreams lol. These big storms are always hard to start and stay all snow for us, even growing up around Hickory you’d have some sleet and then a glaze of freezing rain to end. My issue the past few storms at my place besides the sleet has been terrible dendrite growth. Everyone will be talking about big fat flakes and I’ll be getting hit with dime size or smaller.
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Phil’s Coefficient radarscope will be getting a workout by me for this one, like always these last few years.
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Allan or Brandon does. Basically for a HKY blockbuster a Miller A track around CHS and up the coast is best, CLT was SAV or Jacksonville and riding just a bit further off coast. If I remember correctly.
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They’ll get smoked but that drive out 64 from 23 is gonna be treacherous once you hit the gorge and head up the mountain. You could go out to/come from Sky Valley and have less curves but that road might not be plowed as soon as 64.
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Take it the bank, Mecklenburg minimum of “only” 12-15” is over my house while just 5 miles due west across the river gets you in 20”+ totals. That’s an amazing clown map! Sounds like the H5 maps were tantalizing close to something even more special, if that’s actually possible.
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Insult to injury is my mom sending me pictures from back home up in Northern Catawba County (always a good climo place for the county, tend to miss out on the Lee-side screw job that happens occasionally when compared just to the west in Hickory). I actually chased one December storm back in 2009 or 2010 I think, when my wife and I were still dating. Drove from rain in Noda to sleet on 85 over by the airport to all out heavy snow on 321 all the way from Dallas to my parents. Wasn’t sitting in rain and missing out on that one.
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And you and grit had about 1.5 to 2 times what I had over by the Whitewater Center. Warm nose has gotten me ever since I moved from Huntersville, first to Noda and now over on the river (much better location than Noda though and about as good as Huntersville, just seems the sleet line or a low dendritic growth area sets up on top of me). Hopefully I’ll bring some of this cold Chicago airmass back home with me on Friday night/early Saturday morning. Can a Tacoma tow dry cold air?
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Right now, it's hard to tell man. A landfall closer towards Myrtle has more effect on our weather than one further north around Jacksonville. Some rain and wind, especially the further east you are in the area, is almost a certainty though unless best case scenario of the ridge breaking down enough for this thing to graze the coast somehow materializes.
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Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor!? I just need this column over me to moisten back up. It’s trying to, thought it would when this band got over me but just can’t get the nickel sized flakes to return. 2-3” down here should be a given with what has to come through.
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I’m not complaining, figured we’d start as rain but also thought when I woke up at 6:3 we’d be all snow since it was a mix at 4. Once it flipped completely things went off, just in a patch of terrible flake size right now. Can’t “reasonably” complain about a non-bust just because of low end of the range totals, but it still stings because of the reasons why. Reminds me of the start to that storm a few years ago when QueenCity racked up down in Ft Mill while you and I were sitting here in a minimum for the area due to dendrite growth over us sucking for far too long.
