psuhoffman

I’ve had quite a few big March storms in the last 15 years. They were all slightly too warm for 95. Is that bad luck or…

I honestly tried. It’s clear you don’t want a productive dialogue.

Anyone can post anytime they want

One of these years…

Hard to say since last time it got all the way to day 7 before a spectacular collapse. Last time the trouble started imo with changes in the pacific. It started to develop a ridge in the central pacific which shifted everything north and east and disrupted the whole downstream pattern. But we already have that ridge now. I guess if we see signs it won’t actually weaken or quickly redevelops that would be the dagger.

@WEATHER53 It’s hard to have a productive dialogue or any back and forth with you. You pose questions then ignore when someone responds and bull ahead asking it again and again. Just yesterday you asked about why we don’t discuss clippers and I replied and said we have had that discussion lately and even summarized it and then you just ask again. You get frustrated and act agitated when someone challenges you and instead of defending your position and having a productive exchange with them and offering evidence you often get belligerent. You keep railing about model hugging but this thread has mostly been about long range forecasting which is 90% analog based. We’ve been discussing indexes we use in identifying analogs like the PDO and enso but you keep going on this crusade about models. There are like 5 seasonal forecast threads posted in here including mine and I don’t think any of them cited models as a major part of those forecasts. We look at the super long range models FOR FUN but no one bases their monthly or seasonal forecasts on them when we know they have almost no skill at all! I asked you how to improve long range and your first suggestion was “don’t focus on 7+” ok how do I make a seasonal long range forecast and not focus on past 7 days? That’s not helpful. I’ve been trying hard to give you the benefit of the doubt and have a dialogue with you but you don’t seem to want that.

The best is when in a Nina like 2018 he uses a bunch of analogs like 2001 and 2011 that missed our area with snow but he predicts above normal snow here anyways.

2008

@Jitodays weeklies sped up the progression by about 48 hours. Not shocking as guidance took a turn yesterday. It’s almost back to where it was 5 days ago. Not quite, still maybe 1-2 days slower than a week ago.

The irony is even if he is right about his crazy theories like underwater volcanoes and water vapor (that one is redundant) the effect is the same less snow.

He spent 20 years cultivating a conservative snow weenie base audience.

I was thinking that too

We know the PDO talk is just speculative. But it’s unlikely to flip positive heading into a Nina.

We just can’t know

Have to wait and see what the PDO looks like next fall.

It is and if I was to eventually get there it would probably be April. But the issue is spring skiing is pretty good up in Vermont and Maine also so I tend to just drive up there for a weekend in April and May, its not worth going out west at that point.

One of the reasons I've never been to Tahoe is they get too much snow. They are extremely unreliable if you are planning a trip ahead of time because they can go a month with no snow at all then get 100" in a few days and everything shuts down while they clear roads and do avalanche mitigation. Too much risk and headache. Frankly SLC is getting to be too much of a headache lately with limited parking at some resorts and huge lines getting up the Canyons...starting to prefer other locations that are less of a hassle. Colorado almost never lets me down.

Thanks, if not at least I did get a few pretty good days in earlier this season. Finally got to Taos this season, loved that mountain and the town is awesome. If you are an art fan or foodie it's amazing.

Unfortunately it can be summed up with “We’re F’d”

That’s the first wave that undercuts the eastern ridge as it starts to lift and merge with the Scandinavian ridge. Again this time the nao starts to go negative before the wave breaking. Doesn’t mean it’s right just a slightly different progression. It’s being acted on by heat fluxes on two sides this time. Normally I’d say the first wave isn’t the one. But March can be funny so who knows. EPS and gefs still have the progression overnight. I am itching to pull the trigger on this winter as soon as they give me any excuse but the last couple runs have actually left a glimmer of hope.

and the gfs goes all in with a pattern change by day 12 lol

This thread is unpinned because it was replaced with a new thread for Late Feb/March. But they don't reclassify or delete the threads, they just unpin them and let them slowly die. It will drop down the list of threads as people stop posting in it. But it remains there to be searched and referenced if anyone ever wants to look at it in the future.

The 12z EPS was...the weeklies are based on the 0z run which was worse so.... make of that what you will. But regardless of one good 12z run the trend on the whole has been not good the last 5 days. Decide for yourself what you want to weight more...one 12z run but admitedly the latest guidance...or a 5 day trend.

if the PDO actually did flip it would change the calculation significantly on next winter. BUT....it would be incredibly rare for the PDO to actually flip heading into a Nina. It's more common for a Nina to cause a temporary -PDO even in a +PDO cycle. So while there are signs of this -PDO waning I would caution expecting it to actually flip positive. What might be more realisic is if the Nina causes the trend to halt and we get a near neutral or slightly -PDO next winter. THat would still be better than a crazy -PDO but not great. 2017 and 2018 were near neutral PDO years...that would be what we might expect if we get a near neutral PDO. However....IF, super duper emphasis on the if, we do flip the PDO and its legit positive next winter this would be the data on that... It's pretty rare, have to go all the way back to 1900 just to get 9 examples... but here is the data In a positive PDO Nina Baltimore averages 27" of snow and the median is 23" and of the 9 examples none were total duds, the least snow was 10", the next worst was 14", the rest were at least 17" or more with a few being well above normal snowfall with 1996 being the high end example. A positive PDO nina is rare but actually not nearly as bad as a -PDO nina. I would have to seriously rethink my expectations if we see the PDO flip positive. Again not just to near neutral but actually positive. But I have serious doubts given the rarity of that in a nina cycle. And man if we do get a +PDO and then we get a dreg snowless winter anyways...man this place will be a train wreck, not sure I'm ready to "find out" lol

I saw a post from someone who has a method to predict saying it should flip in the next 1-2 years. I have no idea so all I can do is parrot.