psuhoffman

Could be some nice convective snowshowers Xmas day as the upper low passes

Sooooo 2020 to end on a catastrophic ice storm . If it happens you will forever be associated with it lol. Best example of this and a good bust in some places was Feb 2015 when from 72 hours it looked like a rain storm and trended south so much that our area got 6-12” of snow despite a surface track to our NW. but that has an Arctic high with sub 0 temps in front of it.

You’re right.

Good point. If that system ejects in pieces that’s still a possibility

You have a point but I don’t know what organization backs him and sometimes there are low tech innovative ways to look at things like weighted analog models.

Lots of encouraging stuff today but we need something to track asap. It feels like we are driving down the field on every drive but we end up settling for 52 yard field goal attempts I hope something specific comes in range soon. It probably will.

No your posts are made to the board and ANYONE can respond. That’s how a public discussion board works. Anyone is free to reply to what others say. You don’t have to approve or invite anything. You didn’t take my advice last time you pulled this crap. If you don’t like being criticized try not to make as many bad posts! Don’t get mad at me just because your a crap poster.

Those means only go to 15 days. The blocking doesn’t even get into the western NAO domain (where it does us any good) until around day 10. But then we have to wait for a system AFTER the cutter that helps get the block to retrograde with its wave break around day 10. I would have liked to see something in the day 12-15 start to show but I’ll give it another few days before getting frustrated.

The mean was odd so I dug a bit. It’s awful because there is universal agreement on the cutter New Years. After that the majority camp is dry. The precip in the day 11-15 period is from a minority camp that doesn’t retrograde the blocking and so has another cutter. The majority camp does have a signature for something late in the period. Low pressure development in the southern plains with high pressure signature over the northeast and blocking. My guess is if ty block is real we start to see that mean improve soon. But i know it’s hard to wait but the timeline I just laid out isn’t unusual for when a blocking regime sets in.

He made a bad forecast. It’s not the end of the world. We have a pretty good pattern coming up it looks like. Let’s move on.

Look at the trend in the blocking for early Jan the last 24 hours on the EPS

The flip side to 2002 was 2000 when we had a good pattern for about 10 days all winter (and frankly it wasn't great it was just good) and maximized it. We don't hit during that 10 day period a couple times and the whole rest of that winter was a no hope god awful pattern. A repeat of that would not likely work out as well. In the long run it events out...times we get lucky in a not so good pattern or maximize a small window...and times we waste a good pattern. In that regards you would think we are due for some luck here.

you are correct...but I think we are discussing our overall snow prospects and the pattern evolution towards something favorable for that... not verifying DT's actual forecast which was a bust.

Hope this doesn't ruin anyones day....but seeing 2002 in those analogs made me think of this. 2002 is a cautionary tale of how much luck plays in all this. 2002 wasn't likely to be good given that about 50% of the winter pattern was garbage (from Jan 20 on). But we actually had a pretty good pattern for a solid month before that...and we just wasted it. We had a dry period in Dec...a storm was suppressed around xmas, then a big storm in early January was just a bit too far north...PA got a foot of snow, then a good overrunning setup really failed to meet potential when the wave sheared out...and we got a minor snowfall. Then the pattern broke down and the rest of winter was garbage. But we should have done better early that winter then we did IMO. If you have a good pattern for a solid month you should avoid a god awful winter like last year when the pattern was mostly garbage start to finish. It's always possible we get a good pattern...and just waste it. This was probably the height of the blocking in 2002...and this lead to the storm that hit south of us. This was the mean from Dec 15 to Jan 15. We should have got more out of this month IMO.

I think the 3" one you're thinking about was 2012.

I would argue we have been in the regime for a while already and are just going through a typical relax/reload period now. That happens. It's normal. But we already saw the AO tank and the NAO go negative. The spike up was very temporary and then it immediately starts to tank again. The base state of the AO right now is clearly negative. And the guidance is suggesting this next drop will be more significant then the last. I would also argue that the period we just came through repeated in January/February would likely have better results for DC/Baltimore. But IMO we have been in the pattern for a while...this isn't a matter of waiting for some long range fantasy. We are just waiting for the details within the general pattern to line up to get a specific threat.

if the blocking gets delayed yes...when we start to see the pattern get pushed back in time it often is a sign the guidance is not handling the progression correctly. But in this case the issue is some saw the blocking go up in the long range and got excited and jumped on the first waves to come along as the blocking was in its infancy stages. That isnt our MO. We tend to score snow on the backside of blocking regimes once the blocking has fully matured or is relaxing. The blocking itself isn't getting delayed...just the idea that the threats to come from a blocking regime are likely to be later not sooner.

I know from coop data Manchester got about 7" on Xmas day 2002.

careful there are some really good analogs in there...but some complete duds also. 2002 and 2013 are in that group!!! Obviously we would all take 1958 or 1987 again... most of the others were some version of mediocre but given our expectations coming we probably should be happy with mediocre.

In terms of long term patterns they have been each holding their own. Gefs won in Early Dec when EPS was going torch mid dec. EPS has continually tried to shift the WPO trough east too much. Gefs has been handling that better. This version of the Gefs has been much better IMO but I can’t say without doing a more objective controlled study of its “schooling” the EPS.

GEFS looks good after the New Years cutter. Better block location and just enough ridge in western Canada and the SW.

If we get the west based NAO block on all guidance in January and NOTHING comes of it...then I will join Ji in trolling the bleep out of this winter. But I do not think that happens. If that blocking is real we will be tracking threats soon. I know its hard to wait.

some similarities...the mid and upper levels open up and allows WAA to go wild and the storm lifts a little too far north. But its a minor adjustment from a big hit. But the real takeaway is we have the exact same pac pattern there...the difference is the blocking has moved into the western NAO domain and matured and so that next wave from the same starting point cannot cut like the 2 before it. This is all typical. We do better once blocking is established or is relaxing...not as its developing.