psuhoffman

That’s sad. Someone in this sub did something really really really wrong and you need to make amends. Now

There are 3 southern waves there...we need one to phase with the NS

@stormtracker I’m looking at the ensemble members in the eps and gefs that had hits from that wave on the 25th. They phase that NS wave that the op run just ran out ahead. That has to be behind the southern feature and phase. Otherwise the southern feature won’t survive the shred factory flow. If that doesn’t happen we need to wait as the trough/ridge retrograde until it pulls back enough to let the eastern trough axis pull back some.

Here comes another Deep South snow ok this is comical

The NS SW came across on top of it instead of phasing and the southern SW got left behind. Eta: that never works. We need the southern energy in front and the NS diving in behind.

Not much of the wave left. It’s light rain because the southern feature sheared out.

We might need to wait for that western trough to retrograde a bit more to allow that ridge to shift west so something can dig more into the eastern US.

It’s not going to do it this run but this would be a candidate

@stormtracker what we really need would be one of those NS SWs diving down out of western Canada to dig a bit more and phase.

Yea it’s a good setup for a snow in the Deep South. Way way way too much suppression for here. We need the boundary to be relaxing not pressing as a wave approaches.

First wave going to be a Deep South snow it looks like lol

That’s still not even a fair comp since I average close to 40” and DC about 14”. A better comp for me would be 2 25” storms a year. In which case hell yes so long as I didn’t know they were coming. That would ruin most of the fun.

This is funny coming from the guy who could get 10 10” storms a year end still complain.

I'm not drunk enough for this

at least he is letting it out in a "dead" thread...

All the long range guidance has consistently tried to break down the -NAM state around day 20 all cold season since if flipped late November. Sometimes it makes it as close as about day 15 then suddenly gets pushed back out to day 20-25 again. It will eventually flip but I see no signs its eminent yet.

Can we get some angel choir music???

@Ji check out the para. Perfect wave incoming and just dies literally on out doorstep.

What did you get March 17?

Good to know. My records (14”) is likely wrong because I was at work that day and had an evening meeting and got home very late. By then the snowfall from the first day had ended and temps warmed in the dry slot and I’m sure compaction had set in. My peak depth was also about 12” the second day.

I got 14” and it was definitely a MECS for our area north but that only extended to the PA borders counties. There was a sharp cutoff to snow about 15 miles south of PA the first half of the storm. For 90% of this forum it was a 4-8” event which is more a SECS. These are subjective and location dependent of course. But when I post here I try to be DC-Balt centric since that’s where the vast majority of the people reading are from.

You let me know when that “some point” comes. @Ji wants to know.

There are lots of reasons that initial wave around the 22 after the block establishes is the lowest probability. The NS hasn’t been suppressed yet. So it’s very likely the NS wave runs to our north. Without any interaction it’s likely the southern feature is weak and suppressed. Additionally and related the cold is just starting to press. It’s really hard to get something to amplify as the boundary is pressing south. Not impossible but this is why we score way more often after blocking and cold is established. Way easier to get a southern wave to amplify as cold retreats some.