psuhoffman

This is a matter of degrees type discussion. I agree with help up top AND the pac we had it would have been better. I don’t doubt it’s still possible to get cold. But we used to get arctic shots from an epo pattern without Atlantic help. Snow was harder to come by in those. But some of our coldest shots were in pac driven years without a lot of seasonal snow to snow for it. It just seems we need more and more of the dominoes to fall in our favor now.

I’m not surprised given the NAO in our struggles to max out snow potential this year. But what’s more concerning imo is the cold was kinda weak sauce for the most part too. We discussed this before the pac pattern set in. It was perfect for arctic shots yet we really only ever got typical cold. It seems really difficult to get a true arctic cold shot here lately even when the pattern is aligned right for it.

No one should demean anyone over cultural differences. Humans need to get over our ingrained tribalism. I also wish EVERY culture, especually my own, could be more introspective about both the positives and negatives. Every culture has things worth defending but also things that are inexcusable.

I had snow cover for like 5 days from that lol

it was 3-10-76. A year with very little snow before that. According to coop data it was a general 8-12” across our area. Some specific totals I found. 8.1” in Westminster, 12.5 in Unionville. 12” in Hanover. 9” in Emmitsburg, 10.5 in Parkton

I think I had 14” from that.

Mid March is kind of a hot spot for snows in Nina years also for some reason. Even some really awful ones like 1976 managed a mid March fluke.

Go explain it to him. Have a nice conversation.

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It snows more further north. Got it. Don’t know what we would do without you. Thanks.

What a full and rewarding life you must have.

I generally agree but the AO flipping negative could change the equation slightly. I’m skeptical but willing to be open minded. But a epo/pna driven pattern with a raging positive AO is just as flawed and difficult to score in as a -AO with a hostile pac. Right now, as I said to Cape in his storm thread, we are in a double bind. We need waves to gain amplitude to overcome the progressive flow and not get suppressed. But with a raging +AO anything that does amplify likely tracks to our northwest. We’re left needing to thread a needle. If the AO does flip negative we could have more luck we there could be some resistance to a more amplified wave not just cutting. We are running out of time but could get a window before it’s over if the changes up top on guidance are real.

Once it became apparent we wouldn’t get the tpv displacement we wanted and thus was just another iteration of the same pattern I didn’t give it much chance. We had some luck early during the transition when the AO was still beat neutral. But ever since this became a pure pac driven pattern with a +++AO it’s been mostly fail city. We had a similar problem early in 2015 before the tpv became displaced into Quebec in Feb. The amplitude waves need to overcome the progressive flow will usually mean they also lift too far north because of the lack of blocking. We’re left walking a tightrope. I have slightly more interest with guidance suggesting the AO is about to flip. It’s too far out but that could change the equation in our favor. Of course we’re in March by then so…

We’ve acknowledged we’re losing some marginal snow events (which is why our mean is falling) due to climate change. But I think that extends even more drastically to ice events. They are all marginal by nature, happening along a narrow scope of conditions where the boundary layer is just cold enough despite warmth above. And the boundary layer is the most affected by warning and especially warning due to increased UHI effects which extend well beyond metro areas now in a lesser but still real way. I’m not saying ice storms are impossible now but I think they are a lot harder to come by here than 20 years ago. I’ve seen a few setups Ute last 5 years that I thought synoptically should support icing that ended up 35 degree rain.

Fixed

@CAPE not upset just saying I’m not excited by another event where the best case scenario is probably another minor event here. But I’m taking the kids up to Killington this weekend and they are getting 10”+ later this week so I’m good. Way more excited about that than disappointed by another fail here.

I guess location matters. The most amped run we had was like .25 qpf up here and you talk about that like it was likely something we can’t get back too. So sorry if I’m lacking enthusiasm for something that the best run of any model ever showed still wasn’t amplified enough to be anything more than another fringe nuisance event for my location.

And even in those best runs it was kinda a pathetic weak sauce system. 4/10ths qpf with temps near freezing in late Feb isn’t gonna do much damage. And you’re talking about that like it’s some high water mark we can’t get back too. Lol

We need to time up last years Atlantic pattern with this years pac pattern. I suppose a Nino would help increase the odds, at least it can’t hurt. But our biggest problem since 2016 is that both the pac and Atlantic long term base states are opposite of what we want. There is variance but when both are spending 75% of the time in a bad look it gets really difficult to time them both up. And for all the attempts to simplify things to one factor (it’s enso, cold, precip, pac, Atlantic) truth is we need some help from both if we want to get a big winter which if we’re being honest is what most in here are hunting for.

I’m not sure enso drives the bus the same way anymore. The last Nino behaved like a Nina. Last winter and this didn’t really behave like canonical Nina’s either. There was plenty of stj this year and the pac pattern was almost dead opposite a typical Nina. If we had any Atlantic help at all I think we would have done very well. Nina wasn’t our biggest problem a raging positive NAO was.

The tpv didn’t get displaced where we want. This pattern isn’t awful. We could luck into something. This threat isn’t dead. But for much of the last 5 years some have wanted the pac to cooperate and questioned the importance of the Atlantic. Well…this is what a good pac bad Atlantic looks like. It’s just as frustrating.

If the thermal boundary is north of us and it’s 50 we have zero chance of snow no matter how wet it is. We need both a cold pattern AND precip. They are both equally necessary to get snow. This isn’t even a debatable thing. If it’s warm it can’t snow. If it’s dry it can’t snow.

You need BOTH

pretty good day. I love the southwest