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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    Some of that is just run to run noise. Remember the precip is probably the least accurate thing on models. At range you’re be better off forecasting without even looking at it most of the time and just using experience to fill in what the surface should look like. If I had to guess why there is a slightly more expansive western precip field here ifs because that little NS impulse in front is weaker than 6z and so the STJ wave has less interference initially in transporting moisture northward.
  2. psuhoffman
    If the NS digs and phases earlier/cleaner the early strength differences in that SW won’t matter.
  3. psuhoffman
    It’s weaker with the SW coming through MT at 60. I don’t like that. What started the improvements last night 0z was that coming in stronger and it continued through 6z. This run is markedly weaker. maybe it won’t mean much but i don’t like that early on.
  4. psuhoffman
    Euro finally got on board with the bomb solution. Sub 950 off New England.
  5. psuhoffman
    It was a significant improvement. Rome wasn’t built in a day. 0z was a good run. Now we need to build on it and not slide backwards at 12z.
  6. psuhoffman
    I’m inside out
  7. psuhoffman
    @Ji This setup reminds me a bit of the early Feb 1995 storm (see below). That was a +AO/NAO pac driven pattern. Very similar progression wrt the NS with a weak STJ wave also. If I recall that was a decent storm for us but obviously had bigger totals to our north. But that’s kinda a best case scenario for this storm type and what we should be rooting for here.
  8. psuhoffman
    Honestly we’re fighting an uphill battle and we both know the odds are we lose. But it’s not hopeless. We’re seeing incremental improvements towards what we need. There is enough of an stj wave chillin down there that if we continue to see these improvements it could lead to cyclogenesis being initiated further SW in the gulf coast and suddenly we’re in the game. I wouldn’t put money on it but we’re in better shape than KC was with 13 seconds left.
  9. psuhoffman
    @Ji @stormtracker all these minor adjustments were tracking at from what I can tell the way the ggem gets it done is simply because it has a significantly stronger SW diving in from western Canada than other guidance. I mean…that works.
  10. psuhoffman
    Don’t sell yourself short. Some pbp in here can be a cross between a 3 stooges episode and a Shakespeare tragedy. You’re have been measured and insightful and focused on what actually matters.
  11. psuhoffman
    Yes but no idea if that’s a bias of tge fv3 based Gfs. I’ve not noticed that tendency anymore. And other guidance is all doing it too. I think the timing is still just a little off. Not 100% unworkable but we need some changes. The stj wave being rather weak isn’t helping either.
  12. psuhoffman
    Fwiw I think you’re really good at this. The last couple days every run you do PBP your posts are exactly what I’m thinking as I look at the run.
  13. psuhoffman
    Icon was a big step in the wrong direction at h5. 18z was pretty close. But 0z left almost all the evert behind and went back to the pure miller b idea.
  14. psuhoffman
    It left some energy behind but the NS still dig far enough west to initiate cyclogenesis with that wave in the gulf. And then it still took one of the most ridiculous bomb/capture/tuck scenarios I’ve ever seen and we were still on the western fringe. You really want to roll that way? You know how close that was (basically a slightly less extreme capture tuck) from an end result identical to a certain Nina storm we don’t even mention around here! We really want a storm coming at us from the SW or SSW. If we need something to be pulled in from our east we’re in bad shape. That’s a losing scenario 99% of the time.
  15. psuhoffman
    @stormtracker this feature isn’t doing us any favors. It’s preventing the key SW behind it from amplifying by flattening the flow some right in front. Simply it’s not enough wave spacing. We’re now at a range it’s safe to say that’s real but the timing can adjust. Weaker and faster with that feature is better imo. Slower and stronger with the next SW is better. Increase the spacing between those SWs would help.
  16. psuhoffman
    The only way that would work would take a crazy ridiculous capture and tuck scenario off the SE coast that’s VERY rare. The simpler path, and we do better with simple, is for the energy not to split and have the NS just phase with the further west stj wave in the gulf. Then we don’t need as radical a trough amplification to win.
  17. psuhoffman
    There are 3 synoptic scenarios showing up. 1) the NS doesn’t dive in far enough SW to phase with the STJ at all and just becomes a late development NS miller b. That was the favored progression on guidance 24-48 hours ago. 2) the NS digs further west but leaves some energy behind then actually has a messy phase with a weaker stj wave further east off the SE coast. That’s the current favored setup and that still won’t work. 3) this has only shown up on a few runs but it’s a perfectly reasonable possibility. The NS digs further SW but doesn’t elongate and split such that the phase happens with the stj wave In the gulf not the one off the SE coast. That’s what we need.
  18. psuhoffman
    Your efforts are always appreciated, it’s just a shame they’re needed so frequently because some people can’t act grown.
  19. psuhoffman
    How bout people just stop acting like clowns so we don’t need her to waste her time cleaning up our mess
  20. psuhoffman
    Just off the top of my head BWI had 11.5” in Feb 2014 in a +AO/NAO storm. March 93 was a +AO/NAO. There is probably a bigger storm if I look through the records but I’m not home. But I said I don’t expect a hecs. Said that’s unlikely without blocking multiple times in the last couple weeks. But I can think of numerous examples of 4-8 or 6-12” storms in our area in a EPO/PNA driven pattern with no high lat help. If anyone is expecting a hecs then I agree with you but I don’t think that’s what’s going on. I bet 90% here would take a 4-8” storm.
  21. psuhoffman
    Clean up on aisle 6
  22. psuhoffman
    Revelstoke is tied with JH for best terrain imo. Especially if you like tree skiing.
  23. psuhoffman
    Some act like it’s easy for us get a snowstorm without blocking. Then you act like it’s impossible. It’s somewhere in between. A -epo positive NAO Nina pattern can be dry. But we do sometimes get lucky. As the pattern retrogrades this was the best window for amplification near us. Doesn’t make it high probability but the best we had. Overall I thought our best opportunity was last weekend had that not closed off way too early. After that I thought one of these west to east waves would get us but I get we’re all spaced too close abs weak and nothing could activate the baroclinic boundary. This is the best shot we have left before the pattern shifts. Too early to know what our chances will be after the reshuffle.
  24. psuhoffman
    Had some amazing days at Alta. JH 2 years ago during that 40” dump was pretty epic. Was in Revelstoke a week it snowed almost everyday in 2013. That’s got to be my top 3.
  25. psuhoffman
    This is way more typical of a epo driven pattern with no blocking than 2014 & 2015. Those years might have falsely convinced some it’s easier to get snow absent blocking than it really is.
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