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psuhoffman

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  1. psuhoffman

    Winter 2022-23

    psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    It’s amazing the cutoff in many decent Nina years near Philly. Same in 2018. My area northeast can do ok. But south of there doesn’t cash in even in “better” Nina’s. On another note not sure a repeat of 2001 works out even here. The coop near here recorded ~35” but most of it came in several very marginal temp storms. Two where the snow mostly fell with temps at 32-34 degrees. A repeat of that winter adjusted a couple degrees warmer would be a dreg winter here.
  2. psuhoffman

    Winter 2022-23

    psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    I need to visit your reality. In mine a significant % of people have decided reality is subjective and science is a conspiracy.
  3. psuhoffman
    I would guess in that range yea.
  4. psuhoffman
    Some pics from around town 27 just south of Manchester South side of Manchester These are just down Ebbvale from my house. Whatever it was the worst passed just a few hundred yards south of me down my street. my kids think they’re camping.
  5. psuhoffman
    27 between Manchester and Westminster was a mess. Trees and power lines down everywhere.
  6. psuhoffman
    More than I expected when I moved here. We seem to get a good storm every couple years. I’ve seen a funnel cloud twice in the 8 years here. A wall cloud with rotation twice. And I was at work when a tornado hit about 1 mile from my house in Feb 2020. I do miss the pure lightning storms that used to be common where I grew up in south Jersey. But I get good severe events up here. Still no power though. Might not be back for days according to BGE. Using a generator to try to save the 3 months of meat in my freezer.
  7. psuhoffman
    Power still out up here. Hear sirens a lot. I cleaned up the yard somewhat. Found the pool stuff 2 doors down. Kids playhouse was mostly ok. Lost some tiki torches and some big branches but nothing too bad. Neighbor lost a tree. Heading out to find somewhere with power to get the kids dinner. Maybe Westminster.
  8. psuhoffman
    Few miles south of me. I took this right before things got crazy. There was clear rotation. Then it got bad enough quick that getting the kids to safety outweighed getting better video footage.
  9. psuhoffman
    It blew the kids plastic toy house about 75 yards into the neighbors yard. My patio furniture is all over the yard. It’s a mess.
  10. psuhoffman
    Lost power. Had to get the kids in the basement. It got bad. Too much rain/hail to tell if it was a micro burst or ef0/1 tornado but we got hit by something and it was bad enough I decided not to watch and get the kids in the basement. We lost some trees.
  11. psuhoffman
    If anyone knows someone at NWS might want to get a tornado warning out on this storm here in northeast Carroll. Clear rotation on wall cloud. Hail. High winds. Nothing on ground now but worth a warning Imo.
  12. psuhoffman
    Happy birthday @mappy
  13. psuhoffman

    Winter 2022-23

    psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Maybe others haven’t noticed but Ji has been much better even last winter. He still does his thing from time to time but he wasn’t wrecking threads and was making substantive posts also.
  14. psuhoffman

    Winter 2022-23

    psuhoffman replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    One of the main culprits for the decline in mean snowfall around DC is that enso neutral winters used to have a pretty high probability of above avg snowfall. But in the last 30 years that’s no longer true. They’ve been mostly dreadful, even worse than Nina’s in many cases, with the exception of 2013/14.
  15. psuhoffman
    @Maestrobjwa in the last 50 years... Years with above normal snowfall at BWI by decade 2010s: 4 2000s: 2 1990s: 2 1980s: 3 1970s: 3 Avg years per decade above avg snowfall = 2.8 There is a 73% of below normal snowfall in any given individual year just based on random chance. But the truth is we have about a 75% chance of above avg snow if it is either a modoki or a moderate to strong nino year. And all other years including non modoki weak nino's we have about a 15% chance of above normal and 85% chance of below normal snowfall. That's our climo. Set your expectations accordingly.
  16. psuhoffman
    Why are you upsetting yourself in April over something that may or may not happen next year in which you have absolutely no control over? Also, I posted data a few months ago that showed the Nina hate is over blown. Yes Nina’s are worse than the avg. But that’s because modoki ninos skew the mean upward. In the last 40 years Nina’s are actually no worse (and actually slightly better) than any enso phase other than modoki Nino. Truth is only modoki ninos give us a good chance of an above avg snow season. EVERY other year (which is like 90% of them) gives us equally likely chances of a below avg snow season. In summary about 1-2 times a decade we get a modoki Nino and those are almost always big snow years. The other 8-9 years are mostly below avg with every so often one lucky year where some other enso phase year flukes into an above avg snow season. Basically just expect below avg snow every year then be really happy the 2-3 times a decade we get lucky and above avg.
  17. psuhoffman
    I think the problem is the standard anomaly deviates from the linear regression mean and so we can expect a normal hemispheric response with fluctuations in the zonal phase of the oscillations.
  18. psuhoffman
    It was the first coop that came up for his zip. Wouldn’t change much. Several of those 50s must have been upper 50s when the avg high was ~60 early in the month. Saying that based on what the numbers at the coop I saw were and unlikely to be that far off. Overall it was running about normal before that 2 day cold snap. Right now it’s slightly below and projected to be back to normal or slightly above by next week if the forecast is correct. It’s been a pretty avg April overall. There were a few anomalously warm and cold days but most days fell within a standard deviation of normal. There were really only 4 truly anomalously cold days but it felt like more maybe because we spend a week talking about the cold before it started both times. I remember getting a chuckle about people complaining about the cold 4 days away when it was nice out as they wrote that.
  19. psuhoffman
    People can feel however they want. I was just pointing out that according to the actual numbers it’s been pretty typical. But that has nothing to do with feelings. If someone expected wall to wall 70s then sure it’s been horrible. I’d argue that’s unrealistic but whatever. That’s each persons prerogative how to feel.
  20. psuhoffman
    Another possible perceptive bias is because of how we analyze in here. We’ve really had two cold snaps that each lasted 48-72 hours but if you spend a week obsessing over it before it even arrives it can feel a lot longer.
  21. psuhoffman
    True. But it’s a little unrealistic to expect spring to be wall to wall normal to above normal days. Our normal high to start spring is still in the 50s and doesn’t reach 70 until the very end of April. We’ve had a pretty typical temperature distribution and yet some are acting like it’s been awful. It seems like they expect April to have typical May temperatures.
  22. psuhoffman
    Maybe the problem is we’ve become so used to months that are 90% above normal that when we get a typical month we perceive it as cold. Dunno. Take right now…it’s absolutely gorgeous out and will be most of the next week…I’m not going to stress that there’s a few cold miserable days showing up on guidance way out. If we get a few cold days after a week of gorgeous warmth and it warns up again after a few days so what? By the grace of god I can survive a couple cold days. So far spring has been a 50/50 mix of nice and chilly days but it seems like some are focused way more on the 50% chilly days.
  23. psuhoffman
    April daily highs at Winchester coop station 80s: 1 70s: 6 60s: 2 50s: 9 40s: 2 8 days more than 3* above normal 4 days within 3* of normal 8 days more than 3* below normal.
  24. psuhoffman
    @HighStakes any snow mixing in right now under that band? I’m not home right now.
  25. psuhoffman
    We will have a couple beautiful days before the threat of the back door front either way. I just don’t get the focus on the not nice days. Everyone is totally entitled to feel how they want. But I really don’t get it. We’ve had so many gorgeous days in the last month. We have a couple more coming in the not so distant future. But there is so much complaining about the minority cruddy days. Is the expectation that every spring day be sunny and 70? Besides we really need it to rain a bit now or we will be in big trouble come the dry stretches in summer.
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