psuhoffman

Who is “they”?

I know it’s frustrating…it’s that even rather large improvements in certain aspects only yield incremental marginal improvements in the final result wrt snowfall. And that’s due to the limitations of this synoptic progression for us. The storm is in its formative stages until near our latitude. These improvements can continue to edge things to a marginally better outcome but unless the progression changes it’s not like we’re suddenly going to get a run with a deform back to WV or something. Only way that happens is the lottery level scenario that somehow it digs enough to activate the gulf stj wave instead of phasing with the weaker stj wave off the SE coast. But the timing seems off for that to work. The NS is coming in too far ahead of it. And I’m not sure that’s even fixable since to dive in that far west would probably end in a cut off or energy left behind to rot like the Gfs.

gfs Euro Several intricate interactions affecting the outcome. But I’m kinda shocked as bad as the Gfs mucks them all up it still had a storm at all even for Boston. Testament to how good the setup for a major amplification is. GFS is out of sync with all the parts. The ridge is so far west that the original SW (c) elongates and splits off from the NS trough. Look at the separation between C and B (the energy at the base of the NS trough). Lastly the nail is that A is weaker and coming in too flat to amplify and turn the axis of the trough negative in time for us. On the euro the ridge is slightly better, C and B are more in sync and A is diving in due south to amplify and turn the axis of the trough. Similar to what happened last weekend only this time we want that since the whole process is happening further east. I did identify this pattern as possibly conducive to major amplifications but we might get 2! But I also warned that such storms, while fun to look at and track aren’t necessarily what we want to get a lot of snow. A simple boundary wave was probably a safer bet. these bombs (with no blocking and they usually don’t) give us a narrow window. Trough cuts off too soon and we go to rain. Slightly too late and we are smoking cirrus. It’s not like a west to east boundary wave where in a cold pattern we tend to be about the right latitude to cash in as the boundary wobbles north and south with waves among it. And it’s not like blocked patterns where any track between Ohio and the coast works since the block will force a cutter to transfer east. (any further west and the storm will just wash out). I have no idea which runs are handling these features best but I know this is very complicated and we don’t often do complicated well. Simple tends to be what works more often around here. But we’re still in the game.

the control and eps will in an hour. The control and op don’t typically diverge that much until post 120 hours so you can get a pretty good idea what the op would have done. 8pm.

18z rgem to 84 hrs then 12z ggem after.

Says the dude 100 miles east of me. Lol sorry had too. But it is valid for the NW crew we still weren’t really into it and needed more west trends so a setback is more problematic. Also we all know these miss east 90% of the time so seeing the best global recently go that way feels more meaningful that it should. But it could easily be a blip or head fake. We won’t know until 0z.

Take a joke dude

Subtle differences. The SW was further west but the trough was more progressive so instead of riding the base and amplifying it stretched and got left behind.

This is mdecoys fault for that stupid “I can chase this anywhere” post. Snow gods heard and said “hope he has a boat!”

Didn’t want to say anything too early but the SW digging further west is only good if the trough is also tilting more amplified and less progressive. A west dig with a more progressive trough and the SW elongates and gets left behind.

Uh oh

Euro and NAM were both way too far west. Everyone jumped on them. EE rule.

This…all that really matters is where the storm develops in relation to us. All the other crap is irrelevant. We can do well in a miller b the rare times the NS digs enough to initiate a healthy storm to our SW. PD79 for example. But we tend to call those hybrids simply because in doing so they often tap the gulf and so have stj interaction. Whatever. If the storm develops south and west of our lat:long we do good. If we’re relying on a perfect capture tuck to wrap a deform back into us from the east…99% of the time that’s a fail.

Not very similar. Miller A in a classic pattern with a -NAO with departing 50/50. Some called it a “thread the needle” at the time simply because we were in a Nina but I always thought it was a pretty classic big storm setup Nina or not.

Most of the area got 3-5” from that storm…places north or east of Baltimore more like 4-8.

Typically a miller a starts out as a SS wave in the gulf often in a split flow with the NS out of the way. If there is phasing it’s later after a mature STJ storm has already developed. Miller b storms are NS initiated and such more often are associated with a much more amplified wave and have the NS energy to tap and also often a greater baroclinicity due to the NS involvement.

Sure

The surface changes didn’t do the improvements Justice. It’s worlds apart. 12z euro h5 would argue there a lot more room for a better surface outcome even without much change there. 12z v 0z

@stormtracker it’s much better than 0z euro at h5. We’re still far enough out that is more important than surface details.

Fixed

One difference I see early is the SW that will eventually become the storm is more amplified diving down in western Canada

Just the second storm.

It was close to 30” here but impossible to measure from blowing/drifting.

Yup that’s a rule we really need to remember. The majority of the time the back edge on these ends up a little northeast of guidance 24-48 hours out. that has screwed over NYC and Bos too we just don’t notice those because we were way out of it if they were on the back edge. We really want to see this continue to develop further southwest so that we’re not relying on a capture and tuck to pull in precip from our east. Even that ggem run everyone’s excited about would make me really nervous because any slight delay in the capture/tuck and all that beautiful deform snow ends up over NJ instead.

Don’t listen to this guy he obviously has no idea what he’s talking about.