psuhoffman

They all looked pretty good at h5 but the moderate ones were better here. The weak ones tended to have less STJ and more miller b v miller a storms. I’d still take a weak Nino but moderates are definitely better here. 1987, 2003, and 2010 are the most recent examples of moderate modoki. All were blockbusters here. 2005, 2015 and 2019 are examples of what can happen with a weak Nino. I’d certainly take any of those over a Nina but they weren’t great here and 2 of them hit NYC north harder with a lot of miller b storms.

A moderate modoki can. 2003 and 2015 being recent examples. A strong Nino or east based one the warmth overwhelms the pattern.

That’s where 90% live so of course that’s where most of the discussion will focus. I even center my posts towards the population centers even though I don’t live there because I want discussion and most in here don’t care about my micro climate. It’s nothing personal against us we’re just outnumbered by a lot in here.

IMO those storms would have worked here had they been less progressive. That would have been the example of a coastal timed up with arctic air I gave as the two ways we still seem to get snow...along with boundary waves in cold periods. But not all of them will hit...and frankly a good number of them...when we do have a cold pattern will tend to be more progressive and miss our area. We do better in terms of getting a flush hit from STJ waves that often occur during less cold periods. Problem lately has been they are all just too warm, even when they do take a perfect track. It can still snow...and eventually we will have a big snowfall winter. But our snowfall averages were already pretty bad...and I do think this whole "worst 5 year, 6 year, 7 year" stretch stuff is partly because of the climo changes and the fact that we are losing some snow on the margins every year. @Maestrobjwa asked how this compares to the similar pac period in the 1970s and I think thats a great comparison. That period was the next least snowy period for Baltimore, for example. The reason this one was a little less snowy IMO is probably partly due to climo changes since then more so than the pattern actually being worse now then that one. Actually looking at H5 mean patterns from that period and this one...you could argue we had a slightly better overall pattern the last 6 years than the comp period in the 1970s....but there have been several storms the last 6 years that probably would have been wet snow in the 1970's that were cold rain now.

The sad truth is...if the only way for us to get snow is to get lucky with a progressive wave during those -EPO cold/dry patterns...or to pray to time up a coastal with arctic air in place.... well we're going to have the results we've had recently!

Yea but were digging a historic "hole" in terms of our snow drought at this point. The more years we go without a big snowfall winter...the harder it will be to get out of this "worst stretch ever over this many years" drought we are in. For example...I ran the numbers and DCA needs 18.6" this winter to avoid being in the least snowy 7 year period. BWI needs 16.3" to avoid that fate. Right now...its highly likely neither reaches those numbers. But what's worse is the numbers get uglier and uglier the longer this goes because it gets increasingly difficult to find such a long stretch at DCA and BWI without at least one huge snowfall season. Pretty soon if both continue without a truly snowy winter...we will need a 30"+ winter just to get back to avoiding the WORST PERIOD EVER category for the decade. Think about that...I'm not saying we need a HUGE snow year to get back close to "normal"....that's saying soon we will need a HUGE snow year just to avoid being the WORST PERIOD EVER! Until we break out of this long term snow funk our region is in my bar is that...a season that truly gets us out of "worst period ever" status. And unfortunately...given the numbers...it's likely we are still in that category come the end of this season.

very good point BUT....that's still pretty ugly for the COLDEST day of the year lol. Again you're totally right but I think my point that New England can kinda dismiss surface temp plots and focus on H5 with confidence it will "work out" while we have to worry about both is valid also, even if I admittedly exaggerated my point a bit.

I don’t think we actually disagree on the forecast much. I think we just disagree on the perception of that forecast. You’re coming at it from “it’s likely to be below avg snowfall but probably not a total shutout and it will snow some so it’s not that bad” I’m coming at it from the perspective of “it’s been 7 years since we had a truly region wide good winter and about a year ago there was optimism this was going to be a modoki Nino (I even remember some data based predictor that was said to have a perfect hind cast score supporting a modoki Nino this winter) and now we’re staring at an 7th straight meh winter during what is already both Baltimore and DCs worst snow period in recorded history so it is THAT bad”.

@40/70 Benchmark when the avg high temp on the coldest day of the year is 44 it’s hard to dismiss. Even on the coldest day of the year we need it to be 12 degrees below normal to get a snowstorm. Something I’ve noticed that’s very discouraging the last 5-10 years…to get cold enough we often need an epo driven pattern. The problem is those are actually cold dry patterns. Historically a lot of our snow around DC was from some form of blocking with “just cold enough” temps. Lately that’s not been working. I can list off a ton of examples of storms recently where everything was perfect in terms of track and pattern and it just ended up a few degrees too warm. It’s why I had 52” a couple years ago and DC was single digits. With my 1000 ft it was just cold enough here but some of those storms I was honestly NW of where the heavy snow zone should have been…but the best WAA and CCB precip was just cold rain until you got north of 40 degrees.

Agree…but temps are biased warmer now and that does matter more down here. Part of the reason DC is in the midst of its least snowy 6 year period in history is the dominant unfavorable Pac base state (and there is some speculation that may be climate change related also!) but another part is that DC has wasted some pretty good H5 patterns where in the past they would manage a 32 degree snowstorm and instead got a 36 degree perfect track mid winter rain storm. We can’t just dismiss that factor down here like New England can.

No it doesn’t. But the forcing I’m talking about is correlated to some very persistent larger scale patterns that have been dominant in the pacific for a very long time.

The MJO spiking in phase 5/6 during a Nina probably won't end well for us in Winter.

Some of the same forcing mechanisms that are conducive for HL blocking now become hostile and have a very different response come winter. I think there can be instances where a cold pattern in the fall, if driven by specific global factors that remain positive influences in winter can be a good thing. But I worry that some of the tropical forcing helping now would be detrimental come winter.

Very small sample size. Also very fluke type thing. It's definitely not a good omen but I'm not convinced there is adequate evidence to say its bad.

Almost all the analogs they are throwing around were "shite" down here... and in some cases they thought they were "ok". Partly why I'm not engaging on all the discussion over specific minor pattern influencers and factors...because no matter how you slice it up the major global indicators say this will be a pretty bad snowfall winter here. There is always hope for a fluke. Maybe the effects of the volcanic eruption throw a wildcard into the mix. Maybe we get a weird non nina 1996 outcome or a lucky 10 day run like January 2000 in an otherwise dreg pattern year. But those are not the kinds of things that we would see coming and can discuss scientifically ahead of time IMO. ETA: I should clarify we can discuss those possible wildcards scientifically...we are discussing them in a productive way...I have no issue with the discussion here.... just that I don't think we have enough data for these more rare factors to be able to say ahead of time with any degree of certainty what the effects will be.

Good. The enso/solar/QBO combo is all horrendous right now. Adding a wildcard can only help. Can’t hurt since prospects for a -AO were pretty awful to begin with.

We know his bias but he isn’t necessarily wrong. You can come up with some less hostile qbo correlations but it requires drilling down to a level of specificity where you create a sample too small to glean meaningful conclusions Imo. That said we don’t know for certainty what reaction every combination of every factor will illicit. There is still plenty of uncertainty and ambiguity in seasonal forecasting. There is always hope. But the current nina qbo combo isn’t a reason to celebrate.

You’re right. My bad. I am not sure how that ended up in there. Remove that. So the range is 2”-13.6”.

I don't think its luck...there is a repetitive trend during Nina's that when it does get cold there are progressive waves that seem to have a better chance the further east you are in our region. On top of that there tend to be a lot of miller b storms due to the lack of a strong STJ and those, while not usually prolific, do sometimes clip our eastern regions a bit as well. Signs of this repetitive pattern have shown up at times in 2009, 2011, 2017, 2018, and 2022. I think there is enough evidence, and Nina snowfall anomaly maps show this as well, that the immediate 95 corridor (where most live!) is the absolute snowfall minimum in a nina. Further west tends to get a bit more snow from temperature dependent systems and further east has a better chance of getting clipped by the progressive waves and miller b's. DC and Baltimore are in the exact worst location and most likely to get screwed. I think that's climo not bad luck. ETA: simply put...the further west you can go before getting any elevation advantages...the worse off you are in a progressive pattern.

I think some are making this more complicated than perhaps it has to be. It is true that prior to 2000 there were plenty of healthy snowfall years in and around DC due to some minor factors going our way in otherwise unfavorable enso state. But since 2000 that just hasn't been true anymore. Since 2000 these are all the DC snowfall totals in -enso years and neutral years following a nina year (which tend to mimic nina results) 3.2", 13.6", 4.9", 7.5", 10.1", 2.0", 3.1", 3.4", 7.8", 0.6", 5.4", 13.2". The avg is 6" and the range is 0.6" to 13.6". Every single season was below avg. The truth is we have only done well in either a nino or a neutral year NOT following a nina. So...it seems unless we are praying for some super anomalous fluke a reasonable expectation is "below avg" with a range somewhere between 1" and 13". I don't think we really are likely to get much benefit from minor positive drivers in the pattern anymore...it seems we now need the major base states to all line up in our favor to get a snowy winter in and around DC. If you live in the western and northern highlands of our regions this does not pertain to you...those areas can still manage a healthy snowfall total in less favorable seasons.

The hemispheric energies aren’t aligned with the geomagnetic tilt.

Yes but those years weren’t in the analog set I was talking about. 2000/01 and 2001/02 and 2012/13 were and all were awful DC snowfall years.

I’m not saying it won’t snow at all. Actually….I never would say that. Because even in the worst years USUALLY we luck into at least one decent snowfall somewhere. The handful of near shutout years took a combo of awful pattern and bad luck. Even those worst years will have some marginal threats and one might hit. So even if we were staring something like that in the face I still wouldn’t predict a shut out. Personally I think trying to differentiate between a 10” or 6” or 2” snow winter in DC is kinda a waste of time. Adjust those totals accordingly to fit your location. For me I don’t bother trying to differentiate between a 25”, 18” or 12” winter. There is too much fluke involved in snow totals. A 10” winter in DC could be from a colder year with a decent base state pattern that just got unlucky with synoptic details. Or it could be a horrible pattern year where we got lucky once or twice! An under 5” year takes an awful pattern but also bad luck. It’s going to drive you mad trying to predict that specific. All I try to do is identify if it’s going to be a year we likely end up above normal, near normal, or below. Once I decide it’s likely below I’m not wasting my time on if it ends up 9” or 3”. Frankly they are all bad to me so whatever. I don’t get depressed over it. I find other things to do. Track the chances at a fluke. Travel to see snow. Being a skier helps! But I’m not obsessing over whether DC gets 3” or 9”. And I’m not obsessing over whether I get 15” or 25” (kinda the equivalent). When I do seasonal I’m hunting for those 25% of actual snowy winters. Once I realize this probably ain’t one…the rest are all some degree of suck so whatever. Not saying anyone else should agree with this. And I do think it’s valuable to try to differentiate more with temperatures just not with snow. Just explaining my crazy mindset.

But yet almost every one of those years DC had very little or no snow in Dec and most went on to be pretty awful as a whole. Agaun this is why I find it hard to be optimistic. No matter how you dice it up, sort analogs, change what factors will be dominant…I’ve yet to see any any analog set that includes snowy winters down here. There are reasons to be optimistic in places north of 40. This doesn’t look like a wall to wall torch everywhere winter. But we usually are on the outside watching others celebrate in those type years. I’ll duck and cover now. Deb out.

Yea and that December was a torch which is the opposite of what the person who compiled that analog set was implying. And a “set” of 1 is pretty useless Imo. Just saying I wouldn’t weight that much at all based on the variance of the entire set and limited enso comps.