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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    You would think this is good…but the individual members show nothing.
  2. psuhoffman
    Models are speeding up the NS wave. Problem with that is the timing is now off and most of the STJ wave that was responsible for the better hybrid looks gets left behind. That makes it more a miller b scenario and we all know how a Nina miller b is likely to end for us. Still time to shift back towards what we want. Several options. 1) get the 1st NS SW to slow down. 2) get it to dig further west 3) get it to speed up and clear out because there is another behind it that could link up with the stj a day or two later. Right now the timing looks off. We just need it to adjust faster or slower
  3. psuhoffman
    It’s still VERY early to worry about details…but needing a west trend is not the same as needing a north trend. I’d always prefer needing a north trend v needing a west one because at long range guidance is often too far south with features…but they are also often too fast to phase and amplify with stream interactions and that makes a west trend less “with the typical bias error”. Doesn’t mean we can’t get that. And not even sure we need it, we’re just talking about two op runs which at this range means nothing. But I don’t want to see guidance converge on a late developing scenario. Those are harder to reel in than having it show some big snowstorm south of us that slides out.
  4. psuhoffman
    We have Ji for that and he isn’t a jerk and is actually funny Imo. Avant Regent or whatever he calls himself tomorrow adds no value in any way. Attacking @Bob Chill was the final straw for me. Don’t even want to acknowledge him anymore.
  5. psuhoffman
    Truth
  6. psuhoffman
    Wish people wouldn’t reply to him so I wouldn’t have to see his garbage. Ya know if we all just put him on ignore it would be the same as him getting banned.
  7. psuhoffman
    This is your fault.
  8. psuhoffman
    Just to illustrate my earlier point…early Feb doesn’t look like a torch despite a -pna on the eps or gefs. A gradient pattern could work if the idea of the epo ridge extending over the pole with a slightly -AO is correct.
  9. psuhoffman
    But is it tasty
  10. psuhoffman
    Both the eps and gefs show the epo ridge extended over the pole in Feb. that’s one way to get the cold that dumps into western Canada to press southeast. The current advertised pattern isn’t the December one.
  11. psuhoffman
    Using basic longwave pattern progression to identify a window where a major amplification was likely near the east coast was the easy part. That’s done with a 30,000 ft view of the hemispheric pattern. But we only care if that leads to snow in our yards. That’s the fun but hard part determined by a bunch of details like SW timing and the angle the NS digs in at or how clean and where the phase happens…things we can’t know yet. This has a lot more moving parts then 2016. I doubt guidance starts to settle on the final general idea until inside 5 days and probably even then will have some specific details (that matter to us a lot) not pinned down until much later. I suggest we just enjoy the chaos until the guidance starts to converge and stabilize on a common general solution.
  12. psuhoffman
    Lol
  13. psuhoffman
    I have no idea how permanent it is...a wave breaking induced NAO ridge that is going against the base state is likely not going to last too long...but it would create a window behind it for a few days to a week at least, instead of going right into a SE ridge. And there are numerous STJ waves coming in that period with the Pacific shuffling...that is a setup that could produce something...pacific waves attacking cold in the northeast following a temporary block.
  14. psuhoffman
    Something interesting to note...if we do get a bomb in that time period, the wave breaking from it flips the NAO negative and completely changes the pattern progression behind it. Suddenly we would be tracking threats in early February also as a result. So even if we don't necessarily "win" with the big snowfall totals from this storm its a good thing anyways. Bombs away!
  15. psuhoffman
    same problem as last weekend...system cuts off and amplifies too far south and without blocking we get a blast of SE flow ahead of it and nothing to stop it from cutting due north. But way too early to worry about that yet.
  16. psuhoffman
    does it with a different wave...but that doesn't matter at that range. Its the "window" where the longwave pattern is right for something to amplify along the east coast. There are 3 NS waves and 2 STJ waves in the day 7-10 time period and something is ripe to pop there just based on the ridge/trough axis. The details are still a long ways away from being known.
  17. psuhoffman
    Yea a -epo -pna pattern isn’t necessarily a torch here. It is if it’s a -5 pna like Dec but that was crazy. Assuming we don’t go back to that we would have opportunities with boundary waves and trailing waves with as much cold as there is in North America this year. As long as we don’t lose the epo there is at least hope.
  18. psuhoffman
    The NS isn’t digging far enough south on its own it’s a bit too south and active to allow the southern stream )which is healthier than normal in a Nina) to get it done alone. It’s just running interference
  19. psuhoffman
    It’s no weirder than people that play video games all day and live for a digital victory. Or tracking day 10 storms at all for that matter!
  20. psuhoffman
    Some shots from this afternoon.
  21. psuhoffman
    Earlier panels have precip in the gulf coast. It’s a hybrid signal. There is a NS wave diving in and an STJ wave in the Gulf Coast. Members get to a big storm multiple ways. Some phase the two late off the mid Atlantic. Some of those still manage to get us with a 12z Gfs type solution. Some Miss though. Some get the NS out of the way first then bring the stj wave up. Some get the stj ahead and phase the NS in behind and some of those go nuts and cut like the storm last weekend. The non storm minority cluster have the NS dive in on top and crush everything.
  22. psuhoffman
    This is 24 hr precip. This is as big a signal as you will ever see at that range due to timing differences and outlier members that far out.
  23. psuhoffman
    There are timing issues between members so hard to catch in one frame but the majority of the gefs members like an amplified storm in that day 8-10 period. Actually they think a cutter is the bigger threat than OTS.
  24. psuhoffman
    It handles the NS remarkably similar just has no stj wave there to phase with this run.
  25. psuhoffman
    96/16 track, 93 intensity.
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