psuhoffman

3

That was my read on it also.

Have to look at everything in totality. Without the blocked up flow in the northeast it would be a problem. Also the pac ridge is far enough east that with the trough still east of Hawaii and the blocked flow it’s probably gonna slide east. No way to know though. If it’s too slow and the flow relaxes it could cut.

Doubt that cuts

I have to approve of the new GFS...mainly because it finally figured out where I live.

Just looked…I’d be a little nervous relying all on the NS wave like that. BUT…did you see how close that was to timing up the NS and SS there. It was barely off and so it delayed the phase and was too late for us but it was super close. Even closer than the Gfs. I wouldn’t give up on the adjustment we need there at all from this range.

Don’t totally sleep on the 25 either. There is a healthy SS wave but the timing is off right now with the NS out ahead and so it ends up a NS miller b screw job. But if that timing adjusts like 12 hours on those waves suddenly it’s a hybrid and we’re in the game. It’s still at a lead where that kind of adjustment is well within typical error.

So you’re saying that on that run DC will be 5” above avg snowfall by February 1 and that’s the total disaster fail scenario? But what I was really talking about was the potential. Yea if just comes together late day 9 and over phases day 12 but you’re worrying about those details at those ranges when you know both storns will look different in 6 hours. Just being close at those ranges is as good as a hit. Probably better so we don’t have to suffer all those clown maps.

Yea but after we get a foot of snow on the 29th a couple inches of snow and ice a few days later is fine!

By then my fear would be the trough retrogrades too much and a west track becomes increasingly likely with something amplified. Right now we want something amplified with the trough axis. We got really unlucky with the timing wrt the last amped up storm but in general with the axis right on the coast more amplified is better. After the 30th it might get west if ideal and we would want weaker waves at that point. With enough cold can still get front end love just talking about how to get a flush hit here. We will likely continue to pad stats with minor stuff either way in this pattern.

Gfs was sooooooooooo sooooooooooooo soooooooooooooooooooooooo close to pulling off a monster around the same time I’m very interested in. Just had a sloppy phase between 3 pieces. But it was close. Ask me how close.

It says I get 4”. Let’s put the new king to the test.

I think it’s apparent eventually the pac is going to revert to the Nina base state and the -pna will return. Don’t worry if you forget, Chuck will remind you 17 times by the end of the day. But that doesn’t necessarily mean we’re done for snow chances the rest of winter. Some factors… 1) the pac pattern advertised is a little east of December’s. The trough in the western pac is east of Japan and the ridge axis is east of the Aleutians. That’s not as awful. 2) the pac ridge is extremely poleward. That will at least dump cold into N Amer. If it was flat with a +AO that’s pac puke game over time. 3) there is cold around to to start also. It’s possible weaker waves could eject and with lucky timing we could get chances even in an otherwise warmer pattern 4) it looks like Feb starts with a +AO NAO and so we likely content with the SE ridge. But if we do get another round of blocking in Feb and March that pac look can be mitigated. Blocking overcame that exact pac look to lead to snowstorms in Feb 2006 and March 2018. But that part of the equation is unknown

From 10 days ago I liked the 20-25 but edited that when it became obvious the pattern was retrograding slower than expected. Some idea just a few days delayed. everything’s been a slow progression this year. It all went kinda as expected just delayed.

If you look at both the gefs and eps and loop the h5 anomalies you can clearly see an stj wave ejected east on the 25th. At the same time the NS is diving into the high plains much further west than the waves before. That setup then repeats a few days later and everything pinwheels around. That look seems way more likely to allow amplification along the east coast without needing perfect timing and phasing.

The front the wave is sliding among has been pressing more each run. Not overly optimistic up here.

Unfortunately the rest of the overnight guidance confirmed my suspicion regarding convergence v a true NW trend. Noting the run to run trend of a specific model is important and part of the analytical process and it’s especially significant if an outlier is trending towards the consensus since that increases confidence. That’s often what we do if the consensus is what we want. But the consensus here was a close miss. Early on there was a lot of cenebrating amplified trends in the Gfs and NAM but they were the least amplified models. The icon had been the second most amplified and it was trending weaker. The rgem and ggem had been in between and they stayed mostly identical. Based on that it seemed likely we weren’t seeing a true north trend towards a euro like soliton but rather a convergence of guidance towards a southeast VA hit. That wasn’t even a prediction of the outcome just a prediction of what the 0z guidance was doing. Maybe we see a real trend today. I tend to doubt it. The flow is not really supportive without the more amplified phased idea the euro had and everything has moved away from that. I continue to like the pattern overall abc especially like the window between the 25-30, just not bullish on a big hit from this. I could see some snow sneaking up to DC but the euro big storm idea seems pretty unlikely Imo.

Don’t worry my words have no bearing on the outcome.

But is this really a positive trend or just models coming to consensus. If the most amplified models trend weaker and the least trend stronger that’s not really any change in the overall situation. If the euro goes back to a big hit then we actually made progress over the last 24 hours. Otherwise all that’s happened in everything met in the middle.

There was a time I salivated when central or southern VA was the target 3-5 days out. But over the last 5 years we’ve seen about a half dozen of these and not seen a flake from any of them. DC got into some on the northern fringe. But places like Winchester, Hagerstown, Frederick… have mostly misses every one. The north trend isn’t what it used to be. ETA: that’s not the same as the the west trend when there is no blocking which is still a real thing.

It’s the rgem to 84 then ggem after.

Those hemisphere h5 scores aren’t always relevant to the one thing we care about, the track and amplitude of low pressure systems along the east coast. The Uk for years killed those scores but I’d trust the icon over it at placing a mid latitude cyclone along the east coast at day 5.

You’re right about what guidance is most reliable but I think it’s time we stop having to add an obligatory apology for discussing the NAM or icon or anything else. It’s not like they come out at the same time and are distracting from better analysts. And there is no post limit. Lastly it’s not like they are totally useless. It’s worth noting what the preponderance of evidence shows. Especially if we’re about to elevate the Gfs to lone superpower model status. What if it’s off it’s rocker? It’s been impressively better since the last upgrade but it’s not flawless. We need additional data, even if it’s slightly lower quality.

I’m still on the way home stopped for dinner so no fancy graphics but the 18z rgem is an example. It has some phasing between the streams and still is a miss anywhere NW of DC and only fringed them.