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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    Says the dude 100 miles east of me. Lol sorry had too. But it is valid for the NW crew we still weren’t really into it and needed more west trends so a setback is more problematic. Also we all know these miss east 90% of the time so seeing the best global recently go that way feels more meaningful that it should. But it could easily be a blip or head fake. We won’t know until 0z.
  2. psuhoffman
    Take a joke dude
  3. psuhoffman
    Subtle differences. The SW was further west but the trough was more progressive so instead of riding the base and amplifying it stretched and got left behind.
  4. psuhoffman
    This is mdecoys fault for that stupid “I can chase this anywhere” post. Snow gods heard and said “hope he has a boat!”
  5. psuhoffman
    Didn’t want to say anything too early but the SW digging further west is only good if the trough is also tilting more amplified and less progressive. A west dig with a more progressive trough and the SW elongates and gets left behind.
  6. psuhoffman
    Uh oh
  7. psuhoffman
    Euro and NAM were both way too far west. Everyone jumped on them. EE rule.
  8. psuhoffman
    This…all that really matters is where the storm develops in relation to us. All the other crap is irrelevant. We can do well in a miller b the rare times the NS digs enough to initiate a healthy storm to our SW. PD79 for example. But we tend to call those hybrids simply because in doing so they often tap the gulf and so have stj interaction. Whatever. If the storm develops south and west of our lat:long we do good. If we’re relying on a perfect capture tuck to wrap a deform back into us from the east…99% of the time that’s a fail.
  9. psuhoffman
    Not very similar. Miller A in a classic pattern with a -NAO with departing 50/50. Some called it a “thread the needle” at the time simply because we were in a Nina but I always thought it was a pretty classic big storm setup Nina or not.
  10. psuhoffman
    Most of the area got 3-5” from that storm…places north or east of Baltimore more like 4-8.
  11. psuhoffman
    Typically a miller a starts out as a SS wave in the gulf often in a split flow with the NS out of the way. If there is phasing it’s later after a mature STJ storm has already developed. Miller b storms are NS initiated and such more often are associated with a much more amplified wave and have the NS energy to tap and also often a greater baroclinicity due to the NS involvement.
  12. psuhoffman
    Sure
  13. psuhoffman
    The surface changes didn’t do the improvements Justice. It’s worlds apart. 12z euro h5 would argue there a lot more room for a better surface outcome even without much change there. 12z v 0z
  14. psuhoffman
    @stormtracker it’s much better than 0z euro at h5. We’re still far enough out that is more important than surface details.
  15. psuhoffman
    Fixed
  16. psuhoffman
    One difference I see early is the SW that will eventually become the storm is more amplified diving down in western Canada
  17. psuhoffman
    Just the second storm.
  18. psuhoffman
    It was close to 30” here but impossible to measure from blowing/drifting.
  19. psuhoffman
    Yup that’s a rule we really need to remember. The majority of the time the back edge on these ends up a little northeast of guidance 24-48 hours out. that has screwed over NYC and Bos too we just don’t notice those because we were way out of it if they were on the back edge. We really want to see this continue to develop further southwest so that we’re not relying on a capture and tuck to pull in precip from our east. Even that ggem run everyone’s excited about would make me really nervous because any slight delay in the capture/tuck and all that beautiful deform snow ends up over NJ instead.
  20. psuhoffman
    Don’t listen to this guy he obviously has no idea what he’s talking about.
  21. psuhoffman
    Some of that is just run to run noise. Remember the precip is probably the least accurate thing on models. At range you’re be better off forecasting without even looking at it most of the time and just using experience to fill in what the surface should look like. If I had to guess why there is a slightly more expansive western precip field here ifs because that little NS impulse in front is weaker than 6z and so the STJ wave has less interference initially in transporting moisture northward.
  22. psuhoffman
    If the NS digs and phases earlier/cleaner the early strength differences in that SW won’t matter.
  23. psuhoffman
    It’s weaker with the SW coming through MT at 60. I don’t like that. What started the improvements last night 0z was that coming in stronger and it continued through 6z. This run is markedly weaker. maybe it won’t mean much but i don’t like that early on.
  24. psuhoffman
    Euro finally got on board with the bomb solution. Sub 950 off New England.
  25. psuhoffman
    It was a significant improvement. Rome wasn’t built in a day. 0z was a good run. Now we need to build on it and not slide backwards at 12z.
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