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psuhoffman

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  1. psuhoffman
    For this region in general our snowiest period is Dec 1-March 15. About 1/3 of our annual mean snowfall is from Feb 15-March 15. Yet some people want to throw that away every single year. WTF
  2. psuhoffman
    stop wasting time on the wrong wave and cue up the jaws music
  3. psuhoffman
    I’ll be honest I’ve been busy the last few days and I think there is potential for waves after this frontal passage…but I’m kinda shocked we’re tracking this in here. I wanted to head up to northern Vermont (Stowe or Sugarbush) next weekend and I was just praying it doesn’t rain (or freezing rain same difference wrt skiing) all the way to northern VT from this and ruin the surface.
  4. psuhoffman
    Pattern changes that happen in late December and early January often tend to be more indicative of the predominant winter longwave pattern. The current pacific setup has been extremely stable. So long as we continue to see the trough near or just west of the Aleutians and the corresponding epo ridge it will continue to be cold on the average here. If we remain in this pattern long enough I would think eventually we luck into some of these waves. Feb and March offers increasing baroclinic energy for these waves to work with. We were pretty frustrated at this time in 2015 in a pac dominant pattern also. There is still hope this ends well. For lots of places it’s already been going well, have to remind myself I’ve just been unlucky this year.
  5. psuhoffman
    It was the lack of key wasn’t it?
  6. psuhoffman
    The PBP yesterday when he wasn't doing it in the other thread was an epic disaster
  7. psuhoffman
    First Last Final preliminary estimated penultimate primary early late call
  8. psuhoffman
    One other option I wanted to point out. The end of next week the trough has been trending more strung out. If that continues there could be a threat that what was going to be the cutter becomes multiple weaker waves as the front presses and it’s not an impossible adjustment for that to become a threat if that trend continues.
  9. psuhoffman
    We want the cutter further west. Recent runs are further east which pushed the boundary too Far East behind it and doesn’t leave enough wave spacing. Both options still alive. Also the option for any waves after.
  10. psuhoffman
    Been in Baltimore at work. But nice big flakes when I left this morning. Happy Birthday.
  11. psuhoffman
    I think the super bowl Sunday storm was the best example. Perfect track. Marginal airmass but peak climo. I got 6” and 95 got white rain at 35*. We know it’s warmer so it’s not a stretch to say that might have been a 32* 4-6” snowstorm in years past. Subtract 1-2” from all those other marginal events and suddenly it’s a 8” winter instead of a 15-20” one in the same pattern 50 years ago.
  12. psuhoffman
    So I think you’re both right. We do have bad stretches of this length. But it’s also true we are in the midst of the worst 6 year run in DC history. I think it might be the worst for Baltimore also, just maybe not BWI which got lucky a couple times compared to the city. Unfortunately I think that’s the new normal. If you look at the patterns and random cycles of good and bad stretches they are pretty random but within that random we will naturally hit random stretches of bad years. But those bad years are getting worse. 12” years became 7”. 7” years became 3”. So each bad stretch is likely to be worse than the last. We don’t eek our way to 10-15” in bad pattern years often anymore. We sometimes even struggle to get much in decent patterns (now) anymore. I think we can still have big years. If we get some legit ninos and don’t get any big snows then it’s 4 alarm time! But we haven’t had that. The big storm drought is simple. No legit ninos since 2016. No storms since 2016. But the bad is definitely worse.
  13. psuhoffman
    They need to stop with op runs post day 5. Don’t get me wrong the Gfs showing a hit 4 out of 7 runs was indicative of its potent and fun. It’s still not far off now. Ggem too. But the range of permutations ops will bounce around within that lead will still have misses pop up a lot even if it’s a good setup. Once within about 120 hours I’d start to worry if ops are misses. That said I love the gefs look. Don’t get me wrong I still want to see blocking. If we could keep this pac and get one more round of -NAO beside mid March…we can dream. But if we’re not gonna get any HL help this is the best look we can have for snow. The gefs snow mean day 6-16 is pretty good also. I see multiple chances. The day 8-9 threat will depend on the play between the southern wave indicated here and the NS. But while it’s similar look at the trough/ridge axis. Much better. Further west allowing ridging along the coast. We need that in a cold progressive pattern. And it’s following an arctic dump so unless we get a phased bomb it’s likely to contain significant frozen precip if the boundary wave can gain latitude. It repeats out to day 16 and looks stable. Results in these temps with this mean precip following the day 6-7 cutter. That’s as good a look as we could hope for without blocking.
  14. psuhoffman
    You measure side to side right?
  15. psuhoffman
    This isn’t a typical setup I do good in. Look at comps. Boxing Day nada. Nemo nada. Jan 2015 1.5”. Jan 2017 nada Bomb 2018 nada March 2018 1” not a great track record with off the coast track storms here.
  16. psuhoffman
    Got some weird 4” max over me
  17. psuhoffman
    You need to do PBP.
  18. psuhoffman
    I think it’s supportive of the idea we want. These temps with this precip profile… but besides the fact they’ve sucked the eps also is all over right now. Gone through some radical shifts day 7-10 lately (not even way out in the 10-15 range we know is fantasy) and there is a huge amount of variability in members now. So I’d lean with gefs for now.
  19. psuhoffman
    half past the intersect of blue and green
  20. psuhoffman
    I didn't even make the gray
  21. psuhoffman
    Dygdfttrt hdssryv kfduttedf gfssrgc jggr sswe igddtt doirdfg hdstfrrcv
  22. psuhoffman
    Cold as bleep though. Has a nice looking pattern at 240 just dumps the whole trough into the east and squashes everything. A bit too much of a good thing. I'll bank on that being overdone.
  23. psuhoffman
    Wrong storm. There will be a cutter next week. After that is the threat of a wave along the arctic boundary after it sinks south. Gefs can’t agree on which wave but there are a lot of hits day 9-16 between 3 different waves. Same general setup each time.
  24. psuhoffman
    It’s time
  25. psuhoffman
    I know you’re kidding but I think they’ve done very well. If you account for known biases and ignore the one or two outliers each suite the consensus has been extremely consistent for days. Imo some just pay too much attention to every run that nudges slightly closer to what they want even if it’s just noise or guidance bouncing around within the typical range of error for a lead time.
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